本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化率 + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　； 參考：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放35年以來，中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化水平不斷提高。2013年11月召開的十八屆三中全會(huì)，審議通過《中共中央關(guān)于全面深化改革若干重大問題的決定》，《決定》要求“堅(jiān)持走中國(guó)特色新型城鎮(zhèn)化道路，推進(jìn)以人為核心的城鎮(zhèn)化，推動(dòng)大中小城市和小城鎮(zhèn)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展、產(chǎn)業(yè)和城鎮(zhèn)融合發(fā)展，促進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化和新農(nóng)村建設(shè)協(xié)調(diào)推進(jìn)……”。2014年3月出臺(tái)的《國(guó)家新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃（2014-2020年）》，對(duì)新型城鎮(zhèn)化的目標(biāo)、實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑等均做了具體解釋。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期，底特律、鄂爾多斯等多個(gè)案例均告誡我們，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)必須與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段相適應(yīng)才能保障城市的持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此，及時(shí)調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、避免落入中等收入陷阱已然成為當(dāng)務(wù)之急。而縱觀世界上發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的發(fā)展歷程，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，服務(wù)業(yè)與高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)將成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型過程中的重要抓手，城鎮(zhèn)化則是發(fā)展現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)尤其是服務(wù)業(yè)的重要支撐。 文章首先對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理，并總結(jié)出前人的研究成果和不足。接下來，文章通過整理和分析1996-2012年重慶市城鎮(zhèn)化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，定性分析了重慶市直轄以來城鎮(zhèn)化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展的相關(guān)性和偏差性。一方面，，隨著時(shí)間的推進(jìn)，重慶市城鎮(zhèn)化水平不斷提升，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也更加合理，并且兩者在區(qū)域發(fā)展上也都呈現(xiàn)出明顯的二元化；另一方面，通過與錢納里標(biāo)準(zhǔn)結(jié)構(gòu)模型以及國(guó)際上衡量城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化融合程度常用的NU值進(jìn)行比較，發(fā)現(xiàn)重慶市城鎮(zhèn)化水平超前于工業(yè)化發(fā)展，重慶市城鎮(zhèn)化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出明顯的偏差性，且在結(jié)構(gòu)偏差系數(shù)上，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)表現(xiàn)出對(duì)就業(yè)良好的吸納能力，但重慶市城鎮(zhèn)化過程中，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重尚需進(jìn)一步提高。之后，文章借助計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法，通過城鎮(zhèn)化率、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值比重、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值比重三個(gè)指標(biāo)，建立VEC模型，并通過Granger因果檢驗(yàn)得出結(jié)論，即重慶市城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的Granger原因，但產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整并不是城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的Granger原因。根據(jù)此結(jié)論，文章從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部各行業(yè)比重、產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的調(diào)整等方面，對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化過程對(duì)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的影響和作用進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步分析。
[Abstract]:In the 35 years since the reform and opening up, China's urbanization level has been continuously improving. The third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, held in November 2013, Deliberating and adopting the "decision of the CPC Central Committee on several important issues on comprehensively deepening Reform," which requires "to adhere to the new road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics, to promote the urbanization with people as the core, and to promote the coordinated development of large, medium-sized and small cities and towns," Industry and town merge and develop, promote urbanization and new countryside construction to advance harmoniously. "the National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020", issued in March 2014, gives a concrete explanation of the goal and realization path of new-type urbanization. At the same time, China is in a critical period of economic transformation. Many cases such as Detroit and Ordos have warned us that the industrial structure must be adapted to the stage of economic development in order to ensure the sustainable development of the city. Therefore, timely restructuring of the economy to avoid falling into the middle-income trap has become a top priority. Looking at the development of the developed countries in the world, we can find that the service industry and high-tech industry will become an important hand in the process of China's economic transformation, and urbanization is an important support for the development of modern industry, especially the service industry. At first, the article combs the relevant literature, and summarizes the previous research results and shortcomings. Then, through the collation and analysis of the relevant data of urbanization and industrial structure in Chongqing from 1996 to 2012, this paper qualitatively analyzes the relativity and deviation between urbanization and industrial structure development since Chongqing's direct jurisdiction. On the one hand, with the development of time, the level of urbanization in Chongqing has been improved, and the industrial structure has become more reasonable. On the other hand, both of them have shown obvious dualism in regional development; on the other hand, By comparing with the standard structure model of Chenari and the NU value commonly used to measure the degree of urbanization and industrialization in the world, it is found that the level of urbanization in Chongqing is ahead of the development of industrialization. The urbanization of Chongqing and the development of industrial structure show obvious deviation, and in the coefficient of structural deviation, the tertiary industry has a good ability to absorb employment, but in the process of urbanization of Chongqing, the proportion of tertiary industry needs to be further improved. Then, with the help of econometrics, through the urbanization rate, the proportion of the added value of the secondary industry and the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry, the paper establishes the VEC model, and draws a conclusion through the Granger causality test. That is, the development of urbanization in Chongqing is the Granger reason of industrial structure adjustment, but the adjustment of industrial structure is not the Granger reason of urbanization development. According to this conclusion, the paper further analyzes the influence and function of urbanization process on the three industries from the aspects of the proportion of each industry within the three industries and the adjustment of the industrial layout.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.21;F127

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