本文選題：預期　切入點：城市住宅地價　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：我國自1998年開始實施城鎮(zhèn)住房制度市場化改革，房地產市場得到了快速而迅猛的發(fā)展，市場對住房的剛性需求，投機、投資性需求都大大增加。在此刺激下，為滿足住宅市場的需求，開發(fā)商對土地的需求也日益增加。但是土地市場和房地產市場的表現卻不同步，在房價企穩(wěn)的2011年，多地出現土地流標、流拍，而在堪稱“史上調控最嚴”的2013年，土地市場卻火爆異常，地王頻現。本文正是在這一背景下，提出開發(fā)商以企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略和利潤最大化為前提，其預期對土地價格造成了顯著影響的假設，并從理論和實際方面來分析和驗證這一假設。 首先，通過閱讀和梳理國內外的相關文獻，了解有關土地價格影響因素的研究現狀，以及預期理論的發(fā)展及其在房地產市場中的運用；其次，根據預期理論的相關描述和應用，并結合中國房地產市場的發(fā)展現狀，判斷出國內土地市場處于適應性預期和理性預期之間的有限理性預期狀態(tài)，并判斷出開發(fā)商由于其組織性、專業(yè)性和信息來源的多元性，更接近于理性預期；然后，系統的分析和梳理了影響土地價格宏觀因素、微觀和其他因素，并通過住宅市場和土地市場的聯動關系，站在開發(fā)商的角度分析土地價格的形成過程，明確了站在開發(fā)商角度分析土地價格的必要性，據此從宏觀和微觀層面建立了理論模型。最后，對建立的理論模型進行實證分析。在宏觀層面上，以35個大中城市10年的土地價格作為研究對象，選取了9個影響土地價格的宏觀因素，其中包含了開發(fā)商對房價和城市增長的預期，運用面板數據模型進行分析，結果表明預期房價增長1%，土地價格增長9.62%，城市人口每增長一萬人，土地價格增加15.1元。在微觀層面上，選取重慶市2012—2014年三年來居住用途土地成交量前四名的區(qū)域作為研究樣本，，運用特征價格模型進行分析，結果表明房價和人口增長預期會對城市住宅地價產生正向影響，且不同地區(qū)影響程度不一樣。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China began to implement the market-oriented reform of urban housing system. The real estate market has developed rapidly and rapidly. The rigid demand for housing, speculation and investment demand have increased greatly. In order to meet the demand of the housing market, developers' demand for land is also increasing. But the performance of the land market and the real estate market is out of sync. In 2011, when house prices stabilized, land flow signs appeared in many places. In 2013, which is called "the strictest regulation in history", the land market is hot and abnormal, and the land king appears frequently. Under this background, this paper puts forward that the developer takes the enterprise strategy and the profit maximization as the premise. The hypothesis that its expectation has a significant impact on the land price is analyzed and verified theoretically and practically. First of all, by reading and combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, to understand the current situation of research on the factors affecting land prices, as well as the development of the expected theory and its application in the real estate market; secondly, According to the related description and application of expectation theory and the development of Chinese real estate market, it is concluded that the domestic land market is in the state of limited rational expectation between adaptive expectation and rational expectation. And it is judged that the developers are closer to rational expectations because of their organizational, professional and diversified sources of information. Then, the system analyzes and combs the macro, micro and other factors that affect land prices. And through the linkage relationship between the housing market and the land market, the paper analyzes the forming process of the land price from the angle of the developer, and clarifies the necessity of analyzing the land price from the angle of the developer. Finally, the empirical analysis of the theoretical model is carried out. At the macro level, the price of land in 35 large and medium-sized cities for 10 years is taken as the research object. This paper selects 9 macro factors that affect land price, including developers' expectation of housing price and urban growth, and uses panel data model to analyze, The results show that housing prices are expected to increase by 1%, land prices by 9.62%, urban population by 10,000 people and land prices by 15.1 yuan. At the micro level, four regions with the top four residential land transactions in the three years from 2012 to 2014 in Chongqing are selected as the research samples. By using the characteristic price model, the results show that housing price and population growth are expected to have a positive impact on urban residential land price, and the degree of influence is different in different regions.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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