本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究　出處：《北京工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 層次分析法 模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)具有政策影響性強(qiáng)、資金需求量大、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)、市場(chǎng)變化快等特點(diǎn)，其發(fā)展過(guò)程中易受到社會(huì)政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化、技術(shù)等很多因素的制約。因此，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)有很大的不確定性，面臨著大量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)達(dá)到中等規(guī)模水平，但中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)仍面臨著以下問(wèn)題：房地產(chǎn)板塊內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)間資源、發(fā)展和管理水平仍不均衡，互補(bǔ)、協(xié)同的整體發(fā)展格局仍有待建立；房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)城市開(kāi)發(fā)深度和貢獻(xiàn)仍不均衡，項(xiàng)目間管理能力仍不均衡；房地產(chǎn)生產(chǎn)不均衡的情況仍然存在，土地獲取、項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)、產(chǎn)品銷(xiāo)售、開(kāi)發(fā)資金仍有一定波動(dòng)；此外，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的國(guó)家政策環(huán)境和市場(chǎng)不確定性大，企業(yè)內(nèi)部管理將成為可能制約企業(yè)持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展的重要影響因素。 本研究在大量閱讀相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別，找出了21個(gè)細(xì)分指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建了中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，并運(yùn)用層次分析法(AHP)確定了指標(biāo)體系的權(quán)重，進(jìn)而建立了模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。最后，以中國(guó)鐵建的25個(gè)項(xiàng)目為背景進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究，對(duì)比研究一線城市房地產(chǎn)和二線城市房地產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，，利用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型對(duì)中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了評(píng)估，結(jié)果表示，中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)一、二線城市房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)都是較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)一線城市房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目面臨的最重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和項(xiàng)目獲取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)二線城市房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目面臨的最重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最后，本研究提出了中國(guó)鐵建房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范和規(guī)避的建議。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has great influence of policy, capital demand, long construction period, the characteristics of fast changes in the market, are vulnerable to social politics, in the course of the development of economy, culture, technology and other factors. Therefore, the real estate industry has great uncertainty, facing a lot of risk. China Railway Real the real estate development business has reached the level of medium size, but China Railway Real estate still faces the following problems: the real estate sector in the real estate enterprise resources, development and management level is not balanced, complementary, cooperative overall development pattern remains to be established; the real estate business city development depth and contribution is still not balanced, project management the ability is not balanced; the real estate production imbalance situation still exists, land acquisition, project development, product sales, development funds still have certain fluctuation; in addition, the national policy environment of real estate industry And the market uncertainty is big, the internal management of the enterprise will be the important factor that may restrict the continuous and healthy development of the enterprise.
In this study, the related literatures on strategic risk, the Chinese railway construction real estate development project decision-making risk, identify operational risk and risk management, find out the 21 sub indexes, construct the China railway construction real estate development project risk evaluation index system, and using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the the weight of the index system, and then establishes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Finally, the empirical study on 25 projects China railway as the background, the real estate risk comparison of first-tier cities and second tier city real estate, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of real estate development risk Chinese railway construction project was evaluated, the results indicated that Chinese Railway Real estate, facing the second city real estate development project risk level is high risk; Chinese Railway Real Estate first-tier cities real estate development projects face The most important risk for market risk, policy risk and risk for projects; the most important risk facing Chinese Railway Real estate second city real estate development project risk policy risk and development decision-making process. Finally, this study proposes China railway construction real estate development risk prevention and avoidance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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