發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-07 08:38

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：實(shí)際匯率對(duì)失業(yè)率的影響　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 實(shí)際有效匯率 失業(yè)率 開放度 要素密集度 FDI

【摘要】：隨著全球化的不斷深化,中國(guó)面臨著越來(lái)越復(fù)雜的國(guó)內(nèi)外環(huán)境,人民幣日趨增加的升值壓力以及國(guó)內(nèi)越發(fā)嚴(yán)峻的就業(yè)形勢(shì)都是中國(guó)亟待解決的問(wèn)題。本文按照產(chǎn)品是否銷往國(guó)外,資本要素投入是否來(lái)自國(guó)外將一國(guó)企業(yè)分為四類。分別討論各類企業(yè)的勞動(dòng)投入函數(shù),經(jīng)過(guò)加總構(gòu)造了開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下一國(guó)總的勞動(dòng)投入函數(shù)。對(duì)總需求函數(shù)進(jìn)行數(shù)理分析,討論了開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下失業(yè)率的影響因素,探討了實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)失業(yè)率影響的渠道,從數(shù)理上證明了過(guò)去學(xué)者的部分觀點(diǎn)。隨后,按照匯率能否完全傳遞將國(guó)家分為大國(guó)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)體與小國(guó)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)體,從理論上證明了價(jià)格控制能夠抑制匯率對(duì)失業(yè)率的影響。文章在理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上,選取適當(dāng)?shù)淖兞?構(gòu)造了計(jì)量模型。利用全世界177個(gè)國(guó)家,1990-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù),采用GMM估計(jì)方法,評(píng)估了開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下失業(yè)率的影響因素。研究表明：工資、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)模、工作能力因素對(duì)于失業(yè)率影響顯著,其中過(guò)高的工資需求會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率上升；經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)模增加、工作能力提高會(huì)使得失業(yè)率降低；通貨膨脹與失業(yè)率之間存在著微弱的反向關(guān)系,印證了菲利普斯曲線的分析；匯率增加、開放度增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率增加；外商資本流入、工業(yè)產(chǎn)值份額增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率減少。在原計(jì)量模型的基礎(chǔ)上分別加入?yún)R率與開放度、要素密集度、資本投入三個(gè)變量的交叉項(xiàng),檢驗(yàn)了匯率通過(guò)開放度、要素密集度、資本投入三個(gè)渠道變量對(duì)失業(yè)率產(chǎn)生的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)開放度越高,實(shí)際匯率對(duì)失業(yè)率的影響越強(qiáng),產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)開放與要素市場(chǎng)開放影響各異；以勞動(dòng)要素密集型產(chǎn)品為主的國(guó)家,實(shí)際匯率對(duì)其失業(yè)率影響越強(qiáng)；FDI作為資本投入渠道的一部分與匯率聯(lián)系微弱,匯率難以通過(guò)FDI渠道對(duì)失業(yè)率產(chǎn)生影響；只在理論上證明了資本投入渠道對(duì)失業(yè)率的影響是由替代效應(yīng)與互補(bǔ)效應(yīng)共同決定的,二者方向相反。文章最后根據(jù)理論分析及實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果,結(jié)合中國(guó)的實(shí)際情況,為中國(guó)如何在復(fù)雜的外部環(huán)境下降低本國(guó)失業(yè)率提出了部分政策建議,并對(duì)文章未來(lái)在那些方面可以進(jìn)行改進(jìn)與拓展,提出了部分看法。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of globalization, China is facing more and more complex domestic and international environment. The increasing pressure of RMB appreciation and the increasingly severe employment situation in China are the urgent problems to be solved in China. This paper is based on whether the products are sold abroad. Whether the capital factor input comes from abroad divides a country's enterprise into four categories and discusses the labor input function of each kind of enterprise respectively. The total labor input function of a country under the condition of open economy is constructed. The mathematical analysis of the aggregate demand function is carried out and the influencing factors of unemployment rate in open economy are discussed. This paper discusses the influence of real effective exchange rate on unemployment rate, and proves some viewpoints of past scholars. Then, according to whether the exchange rate can completely transfer, countries are divided into large open economies and small open economies. It is proved theoretically that price control can restrain the influence of exchange rate on the unemployment rate. Based on the theoretical model, this paper constructs an econometric model based on the appropriate variables and makes use of 177 countries in the world. Panel data from 1990 to 2012, using GMM estimation method, to evaluate the factors affecting the unemployment rate in the open economy. The study shows that wage and economic development scale. The ability to work has a significant impact on the unemployment rate, in which excessive wage demand will lead to an increase in the unemployment rate; An increase in the scale of economic development and an increase in working capacity will reduce the unemployment rate; There is a weak reverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, which confirms the analysis of Phillips curve. An increase in the exchange rate and an increase in openness will lead to an increase in the unemployment rate; The increase of the share of industrial output value will lead to the decrease of unemployment rate. On the basis of the original econometric model, the intersections of exchange rate and openness, factor intensity and capital input are added respectively. This paper examines the influence of the three variables of exchange rate on the unemployment rate through openness, factor intensity and capital investment. The study shows that the higher the openness, the stronger the impact of the real exchange rate on the unemployment rate. The influence of product market opening and factor market opening is different; In countries with labor-intensive products, the real exchange rate has a stronger impact on the unemployment rate; As a part of the capital input channel, FDI has a weak relationship with the exchange rate, so it is difficult for the exchange rate to influence the unemployment rate through the FDI channel. It is only theoretically proved that the influence of capital investment channels on unemployment rate is determined by the substitution effect and the complementary effect. The direction of the two is opposite. Finally, according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical test. Combined with the actual situation in China, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to reduce the unemployment rate in China under the complicated external environment, and puts forward some views on which aspects of the article can be improved and expanded in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F831.7;F249.1

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