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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費的影響研究　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融發(fā)展 農(nóng)村居民消費 預(yù)防性儲蓄 流動性約束

【摘要】：我國農(nóng)村居民的消費水平較低，消費行為十分謹慎。然而，，農(nóng)村居民消費潛力巨大，拉動我國農(nóng)村居民消費是擴大國內(nèi)需求，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的內(nèi)在要求。金融作為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟的核心，對消費具有不可忽視的作用。因此，發(fā)展農(nóng)村金融對于提高農(nóng)村居民消費具有重大現(xiàn)實意義。 本文基于西方消費理論和金融發(fā)展理論，分析影響消費的因素。從兩個角度探究農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費的影響機理，直接影響機理強調(diào)農(nóng)村消費信貸對消費的作用，間接影響機理強調(diào)農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展通過提高農(nóng)村居民收入水平、優(yōu)化農(nóng)村消費環(huán)境、降低預(yù)防性儲蓄，影響農(nóng)村居民消費。 在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文建立向量自回歸模型，在向量自回歸模型的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建向量誤差修正模型并進行格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解等，考察和分析我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展與農(nóng)村居民消費之間的長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系、短期動態(tài)關(guān)系以及因果關(guān)系等。從實證結(jié)果看，農(nóng)村居民金融發(fā)展、農(nóng)村居民純收入增加、農(nóng)村環(huán)境改善是農(nóng)村居民消費支出增加的格蘭杰原因，農(nóng)村居民純收入增加對農(nóng)村居民消費影響最為顯著，而農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費影響較弱，這說明我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展比較滯后，但是農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)村居民消費具有68%的方差貢獻率，因此，農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對于農(nóng)村居民消費的提升具有重要作用。 根據(jù)理論和實證研究結(jié)論，本文從四個角度提出農(nóng)村金融拉動農(nóng)村居民消費的政策建議。即發(fā)展農(nóng)村消費信貸促進提前消費、增強農(nóng)村居民收入提高消費能力、加強農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)優(yōu)化消費環(huán)境、發(fā)展農(nóng)村保險釋放消費潛力。
[Abstract]:The consumption level of rural residents in China is low, and the consumption behavior is very cautious. However, the consumption potential of rural residents is huge, and the consumption of rural residents in China is to expand the domestic demand. As the core of modern economy, finance plays an important role in consumption. Therefore, the development of rural finance is of great practical significance to the improvement of rural residents' consumption. Based on western consumption theory and financial development theory, this paper analyzes the factors that affect consumption, and probes into the influence mechanism of rural financial development on rural residents' consumption from two angles. Direct influence mechanism emphasizes the role of rural consumer credit to consumption, indirect influence mechanism emphasizes rural financial development through raising rural residents' income level, optimizing rural consumption environment and reducing preventive savings. Affect the consumption of rural residents. On this basis, this paper establishes the vector autoregressive model, constructs vector error correction model on the basis of vector autoregressive model and carries out Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. This paper investigates and analyzes the long-term stable relationship between rural financial development and rural residents' consumption, short-term dynamic relationship and causality and so on. From the empirical results, the rural residents' net income increases with the development of rural finance. The improvement of rural environment is the Granger reason for the increase of rural residents' consumption expenditure. The increase of rural residents' net income has the most significant impact on rural residents' consumption, while the rural financial development has a weak impact on rural residents' consumption. This shows that the development of rural finance is lagging behind, but the rural financial development has a contribution rate of 68% variance to the consumption of rural residents. Rural financial development plays an important role in promoting rural residents' consumption. According to the conclusion of theoretical and empirical research, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations of rural finance to stimulate rural residents' consumption from four angles, that is, to develop rural consumer credit to promote early consumption. Strengthen rural residents' income, improve consumption ability, strengthen rural infrastructure construction, optimize consumption environment, and develop rural insurance to release consumption potential.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.35;F323.8

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