發(fā)布時間：2018-03-15 09:07

  本文選題：分布式能源　切入點：綜合效益　出處：《湖南大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：由于我國分布式能源的研究與應用起步較晚,目前它的發(fā)展還面臨著諸多問題。除了單元技術(shù)和系統(tǒng)集成技術(shù)本身需要不斷開拓與完善之外,天然氣分布式能源的發(fā)展依舊面臨著觀念與認識的挑戰(zhàn)。在對其綜合評價研究中,存在著缺乏綜合、系統(tǒng)的考慮,片面的關(guān)注某一方面,單獨割裂的看待各方面效益等問題,從而造成認識上的局限性,這也導致了綜合效益評價尚未形成一致認可的評價指標體系以及可操作性較強的評價模型。本文以長沙某天然氣分布式能源項目為研究對象,建立了一套可行的天然氣分布式能源項目綜合效益的評價指標體系及評價模型。首先,本文在查閱大量文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,將天然氣分布式能源項目的綜合效益分為經(jīng)濟效益、節(jié)能效益、環(huán)境效益以及社會效益,依次對各個效益進行了分析,得到了本文的綜合效益評價指標體系,即4個二級評價指標和14個三級評價指標。在對經(jīng)濟效益分析中,我國已經(jīng)形成比較成熟的評價體系,本文就著重于分析分布式能源系統(tǒng)本身經(jīng)濟效益的影響因素,不再對經(jīng)濟效益的評價重復贅言；在對節(jié)能效益分析中,首先解決了與分布式能源系統(tǒng)節(jié)能評價對照的問題,除了以年節(jié)能量和能源綜合利用率作為評價指標外,引入了萬元投資節(jié)能能力這一指標；在對環(huán)境效益分析中,提出了噪聲污染這個負面效益的評價,杜絕片面的關(guān)注減排量這一現(xiàn)象；在對社會效益分析中,立足于分布式能源項目的特點,提出了現(xiàn)階段推動分布式能源建設(shè)能帶來的五個社會方面的效益。其次,本文利用相關(guān)評價理論建立了綜合效益的評價模型。該模型采用層次分析法來確定各指標的權(quán)重,采用模糊綜合評價法作為評價方法,利用模糊統(tǒng)計法來確定性指標的賦值,利用隸屬函數(shù)法來確定定量指標的賦值,從而建立了以模糊層次分析法為核心的評價模型,并給出了評價流程。最后,本文以長沙市某天然氣分布式能源站為實例,利用上述評價指標體系與評價模型對該項目進行實例分析,得到該項目經(jīng)濟效益“較差”,節(jié)能、環(huán)境、社會效益“較好”,綜合效益“較好”的結(jié)論,與專家評審會所得意見較為一致,說明該模型對此項目的契合度較高。本研究可為其他類型、其他地區(qū)的天然氣分布式能源項目綜合效益評價提供一定的參照,可為天然氣分布式能源的推廣提供理論支撐。
[Abstract]:Since the research and application of distributed energy in our country started late, the development of distributed energy is faced with many problems at present. Besides the unit technology and system integration technology itself, it needs to be developed and perfected constantly. The development of natural gas distributed energy is still facing the challenge of concept and understanding. In the research of its comprehensive evaluation, there are some problems such as lack of synthesis, systematic consideration, one-sided attention to one aspect, separate treatment of all aspects of benefits, etc. As a result of the limitation of cognition, the comprehensive benefit evaluation has not yet formed a consistent evaluation index system and a more operable evaluation model. This paper takes a natural gas distributed energy project in Changsha as the research object. A set of feasible evaluation index system and evaluation model for the comprehensive benefit of natural gas distributed energy project are established. Firstly, the comprehensive benefit of the natural gas distributed energy project is divided into economic benefits on the basis of consulting a lot of literature. The energy saving benefit, the environmental benefit and the social benefit are analyzed in turn, and the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of this paper is obtained, that is, 4 second grade evaluation index and 14 third grade evaluation index. A mature evaluation system has been formed in China. This paper focuses on the analysis of the factors affecting the economic benefits of the distributed energy system, and does not repeat the evaluation of the economic benefits. First of all, the problem of comparing with the energy conservation evaluation of distributed energy system is solved. In addition to the annual energy saving and the comprehensive energy utilization ratio as the evaluation index, the energy saving capacity of ten thousand yuan investment is introduced, and in the analysis of the environmental benefit, the energy saving ability of ten thousand yuan is introduced. The negative benefit evaluation of noise pollution is put forward to put an end to the phenomenon of one-sided attention to emission reduction, and in the analysis of social benefits, it is based on the characteristics of distributed energy projects. This paper puts forward five social benefits that can be brought about by promoting the construction of distributed energy at present. Secondly, this paper establishes a comprehensive benefit evaluation model by using the relevant evaluation theory, which uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used as the evaluation method, the fuzzy statistics method is used to assign the deterministic index, and the membership function method is used to determine the value of the quantitative index. Thus, the evaluation model based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is established. Finally, taking a natural gas distributed energy station in Changsha as an example, this paper analyzes the project by using the above evaluation index system and evaluation model, and obtains that the economic benefit of the project is "poor", energy saving and environment are poor. The conclusion that the social benefit is better and the comprehensive benefit is better is consistent with the opinion of the expert evaluation meeting, which indicates that the model has a higher degree of agreement with this project. The comprehensive benefit evaluation of natural gas distributed energy projects in other regions provides a certain reference, which can provide theoretical support for the promotion of natural gas distributed energy.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU996

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