【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟一體化的不斷深入,國際貿(mào)易在世界經(jīng)濟范圍內(nèi)所占據(jù)的地位日益重要。我國自參與國際貿(mào)易以來,一直以初始傳統(tǒng)型比較優(yōu)勢參與國際分工,常年以“制造大國”在國際市場中占有一席之地。豐富的勞動力資源,低廉的勞動力成本使我國一直以初級階段的粗放式勞動力資源密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)占有一定的國際市場份額,陷入了“低價鎖定”的“比較優(yōu)勢陷阱”。進行對外直接投資,以投資產(chǎn)生的技術(shù)溢出學習、掌握核心技術(shù)環(huán)節(jié)、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,從而打破“比較優(yōu)勢陷阱”,促進比較優(yōu)勢動態(tài)化升級。本文以人民幣對外直接投資(ODI,Outward Direct Investment)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響為研究主線,以產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級和比較優(yōu)勢動態(tài)升級的聯(lián)動關(guān)系為基礎(chǔ)。首先,對人民幣ODI和比較優(yōu)勢動態(tài)升級的相關(guān)研究內(nèi)容進行梳理,通過查閱大量已有文獻,對二者的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)進行整理分析。其次,對二者分別進行發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的定性分析,對人民幣ODI與我國比較優(yōu)勢的互動機理展開原理分析,確定影響因素和途徑,其影響因素主要有三個方面:資源供給因素、市場需求因素、和其他因素。其傳導途徑包括四個方面:資源獲取性O(shè)DI、市場獲取性O(shè)DI、技術(shù)獲取性O(shè)DI、資本獲取性O(shè)DI。由此建立了本文的實證基礎(chǔ),并從中選取相應(yīng)的實證變量。在定量分析方面,本文實證分析了ODI與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化層級指標的變量關(guān)系。實證結(jié)果分析表明,長期條件下,人民幣ODI是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的格蘭杰因,且對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)有正向促進作用。其傳導途徑主要依靠對外直接投資促進核心技術(shù)條件改善、外部市場容量擴大、資源配置優(yōu)化合理,以此來促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,從而實現(xiàn)比較優(yōu)勢優(yōu)化升級的最終目標。同時,基于VAR模型進行變量的平穩(wěn)性檢驗,確定變量平穩(wěn)后,利用脈沖響應(yīng)回歸分析求證兩者之間的短期關(guān)系。最后,通過對比中國和日本兩國的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟背景情況,結(jié)合日本推動比較優(yōu)勢動態(tài)升級的經(jīng)驗,從定性分析和定量分析兩個方面對我國的人民幣ODI促進比較優(yōu)勢動態(tài)化升級提出相應(yīng)的政策意見。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of global economic integration, international trade plays an increasingly important role in the world economy. Since China participated in international trade, it has been participating in the international division of labor with the initial traditional comparative advantage, and has occupied a place in the international market all the year round as a "manufacturing power". Because of abundant labor resources and low labor cost, China has been occupying a certain share of international market with extensive labor resource-intensive industries in the primary stage, and has fallen into the "comparative advantage trap" of "low price locking". In order to break the trap of comparative advantage and promote the dynamic upgrading of comparative advantage, we should make direct investment abroad, learn from technology spillover from investment, master the core technology link, optimize the adjustment of industrial structure, so as to break the trap of comparative advantage. This paper focuses on the influence of ODI,Outward Direct Investment) on the adjustment of industrial structure, and takes the linkage relationship between optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and dynamic upgrading of comparative advantage as the basis. First of all, the related research contents of dynamic upgrading of RMB ODI and comparative advantage are combed. By consulting a large number of existing literature, the relevant theoretical basis of the two is sorted out and analyzed. Secondly, qualitative analysis of the current situation of the development of the two, the interaction mechanism between RMB ODI and China's comparative advantage is analyzed in principle, and the influencing factors and approaches are determined. The influencing factors are mainly three aspects: the resource supply factor, and the resource supply factor. Market demand factors, and other factors. The transmission pathway includes four aspects: resource access ODI, market access ODI, technology acquisition ODI, capital acquisition ODI. Therefore, the empirical basis of this paper is established, and the corresponding empirical variables are selected from it. In the aspect of quantitative analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the variable relationship between ODI and the index of industrial structure elevation level. The empirical results show that under long-term conditions, RMB ODI is the Granger factor of industrial structure adjustment, and has a positive role in promoting the industrial structure. Its transmission way mainly depends on the improvement of the core technology conditions, the expansion of the external market capacity and the rational allocation of resources, so as to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, thus realizing the ultimate goal of the optimization and upgrading of the comparative advantage. At the same time, the stability test of variables is carried out based on VAR model. After the stability of variables is determined, the short-term relationship between the two variables is proved by impulse response regression analysis. Finally, by comparing the relevant economic backgrounds of China and Japan, and combining Japan's experience in promoting the dynamic upgrading of comparative advantage, From two aspects of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on promoting the dynamic upgrading of the comparative advantage of RMB ODI in China.
【學位授予單位】：南昌大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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