【摘要】：近年來,隨著人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的加快,我國(guó)在人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革、資本項(xiàng)目開放方面取得了較大的進(jìn)步,但與此同時(shí)給我國(guó)金融要素定價(jià)、資本系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性和內(nèi)外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范也帶來了新的挑戰(zhàn),尤其是在國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的沖擊下,我國(guó)貨幣政策體系將面臨更大的壓力,實(shí)施的自主性也受到影響。本文基于國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)和貨幣政策基本理論,探討了我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的度量方法、主要構(gòu)成、影響因素及未來發(fā)展趨勢(shì),闡述了國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策的影響機(jī)制和途徑。進(jìn)而將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)量化目標(biāo)引入到中央銀行的目標(biāo)損失函數(shù),建立了反映國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)貨幣政策效果影響的抵消系數(shù)模型和貨幣政策工具對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的沖銷系數(shù)模型。在對(duì)我國(guó)2003年第1季度到2016年第4季度的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行量化處理后,使用聯(lián)立方程法進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,得出了抵消系數(shù)和沖銷系數(shù),并采用遞歸系數(shù)的方法對(duì)抵消系數(shù)和沖銷系數(shù)的動(dòng)態(tài)變化過程進(jìn)行了估計(jì)。結(jié)果顯示國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)貨幣政策的抵消系數(shù)為0.3533-0.3608,這說明我國(guó)的貨幣政策效果約有35.33%-36.08%被國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)抵消了,貨幣政策效果并不是十分明顯;貨幣政策對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的沖銷系數(shù)為0.7740-0.8543,說明我國(guó)貨幣政策的沖銷效率約為77.40%-85.43%。鑒于定性和定量分析結(jié)論,本文在最后部分提出了國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)下提高我國(guó)貨幣政策效果的參考性建議:加強(qiáng)和完善跨境資本流動(dòng)監(jiān)督管理,防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn);提高貨幣政策工具沖銷效率;深化金融市場(chǎng)改革,提高抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of RMB internationalization, China has made great progress in the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the opening up of capital account, but at the same time pricing the financial elements of our country. The stability of capital system and the prevention of internal and external risks have brought new challenges, especially under the impact of international capital flows, China's monetary policy system will face greater pressure, and the autonomy of implementation will also be affected. Based on the basic theories of international capital flow and monetary policy, this paper discusses the measurement methods, main composition, influencing factors and future development trend of China's international capital flows. This paper expounds the influence mechanism and approach of international capital flow on China's monetary policy. Furthermore, the macro-economic quantitative objective is introduced into the objective loss function of the central bank, and the offset coefficient model reflecting the influence of international capital flow on monetary policy effect and the cancellation coefficient model of monetary policy tool on international capital flow are established. After quantifying the relevant data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2016 in China, the empirical study is carried out by using the simultaneous equation method, and the cancellation coefficient and the write-off coefficient are obtained. A recursive coefficient method is used to estimate the dynamic variation process of the cancellation coefficient and the write-off coefficient. The results show that the cancellation coefficient of international capital flow to monetary policy is 0.3533 / 0.3608, which indicates that 35.33% / 36.08% of the monetary policy effect of our country is offset by international capital flow, and the effect of monetary policy is not very obvious. The write-off coefficient of monetary policy to international capital flows is 0.7740 / 0.8543, indicating that the write-off efficiency of monetary policy in China is about 77.40% to 85.43%. In view of the conclusion of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward some referential suggestions to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy under international capital flows: strengthening and perfecting the supervision and management of cross-border capital flows to prevent risks; We will improve the write-off efficiency of monetary policy instruments, deepen the reform of financial markets, and improve the ability to resist risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F831.6;F822.0

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