【摘要】：近年來,隨著人民幣國際化進程的加快,我國在人民幣匯率形成機制改革、資本項目開放方面取得了較大的進步,但與此同時給我國金融要素定價、資本系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性和內(nèi)外風險防范也帶來了新的挑戰(zhàn),尤其是在國際資本流動的沖擊下,我國貨幣政策體系將面臨更大的壓力,實施的自主性也受到影響。本文基于國際資本流動和貨幣政策基本理論,探討了我國國際資本流動的度量方法、主要構(gòu)成、影響因素及未來發(fā)展趨勢,闡述了國際資本流動對我國貨幣政策的影響機制和途徑。進而將宏觀經(jīng)濟量化目標引入到中央銀行的目標損失函數(shù),建立了反映國際資本流動對貨幣政策效果影響的抵消系數(shù)模型和貨幣政策工具對國際資本流動的沖銷系數(shù)模型。在對我國2003年第1季度到2016年第4季度的相關數(shù)據(jù)進行量化處理后,使用聯(lián)立方程法進行了實證研究,得出了抵消系數(shù)和沖銷系數(shù),并采用遞歸系數(shù)的方法對抵消系數(shù)和沖銷系數(shù)的動態(tài)變化過程進行了估計。結(jié)果顯示國際資本流動對貨幣政策的抵消系數(shù)為0.3533-0.3608,這說明我國的貨幣政策效果約有35.33%-36.08%被國際資本流動抵消了,貨幣政策效果并不是十分明顯;貨幣政策對國際資本流動的沖銷系數(shù)為0.7740-0.8543,說明我國貨幣政策的沖銷效率約為77.40%-85.43%。鑒于定性和定量分析結(jié)論,本文在最后部分提出了國際資本流動下提高我國貨幣政策效果的參考性建議:加強和完善跨境資本流動監(jiān)督管理,防范風險;提高貨幣政策工具沖銷效率;深化金融市場改革,提高抗風險能力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of RMB internationalization, China has made great progress in the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the opening up of capital account, but at the same time pricing the financial elements of our country. The stability of capital system and the prevention of internal and external risks have brought new challenges, especially under the impact of international capital flows, China's monetary policy system will face greater pressure, and the autonomy of implementation will also be affected. Based on the basic theories of international capital flow and monetary policy, this paper discusses the measurement methods, main composition, influencing factors and future development trend of China's international capital flows. This paper expounds the influence mechanism and approach of international capital flow on China's monetary policy. Furthermore, the macro-economic quantitative objective is introduced into the objective loss function of the central bank, and the offset coefficient model reflecting the influence of international capital flow on monetary policy effect and the cancellation coefficient model of monetary policy tool on international capital flow are established. After quantifying the relevant data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2016 in China, the empirical study is carried out by using the simultaneous equation method, and the cancellation coefficient and the write-off coefficient are obtained. A recursive coefficient method is used to estimate the dynamic variation process of the cancellation coefficient and the write-off coefficient. The results show that the cancellation coefficient of international capital flow to monetary policy is 0.3533 / 0.3608, which indicates that 35.33% / 36.08% of the monetary policy effect of our country is offset by international capital flow, and the effect of monetary policy is not very obvious. The write-off coefficient of monetary policy to international capital flows is 0.7740 / 0.8543, indicating that the write-off efficiency of monetary policy in China is about 77.40% to 85.43%. In view of the conclusion of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward some referential suggestions to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy under international capital flows: strengthening and perfecting the supervision and management of cross-border capital flows to prevent risks; We will improve the write-off efficiency of monetary policy instruments, deepen the reform of financial markets, and improve the ability to resist risks.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F831.6;F822.0

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 路萬忠,張光宏;論我國國際資本流動的財政效應[J];中國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行武漢培訓學院學報;2002年02期

2 張光宏;;國際資本流動的財政效應分析[J];湖北經(jīng)濟學院學報(人文社會科學版);2006年11期

3 羅貝;冷洛;;國際資本流動的效應分析[J];云南財經(jīng)大學學報(社會科學版);2008年04期

4 陳瑤;王曉蘭;;國際資本流動對金融業(yè)穩(wěn)定性影響研究綜述[J];華商;2008年02期

5 張寶珍;“當前國際資本流動問題”研討會在京舉行[J];世界經(jīng)濟;1991年11期

6 卓然;八十年代的國際資本流動[J];世界知識;1992年06期

7 ;國際資本流動管理與相關政策研討會在北京召開[J];中國外匯管理;1997年06期

8 李，

本文編號：2456800