國際金融危機對我國出口貿(mào)易傳染的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-14 21:06
【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟全球化的趨勢下,各國之間的經(jīng)濟往來越來越緊密,彼此之間的依賴性也越來越強。隨著我國改革開放程度的不斷加深,我國已經(jīng)逐漸發(fā)展為出口導向型外貿(mào)經(jīng)濟,出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展也越來越多地受到外部環(huán)境的影響和制約。08年席卷全球的美國次貸危機以及隨后襲擾歐洲的債務危機對全球貿(mào)易環(huán)境的穩(wěn)定造成十分嚴重的破壞,使得我國的出口貿(mào)易企業(yè)受到重創(chuàng),我國的出口貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)斷崖式下滑。那么,一國爆發(fā)的金融危機到底通過何種方式影響其貿(mào)易伙伴國的對外貿(mào)易?其中隱藏的傳染機制是什么?而我國的出口貿(mào)易應采取哪些措施防范金融危機并提高抵御金融危機的能力?本文在梳理歸納有關金融危機傳染理論和出口貿(mào)易相關概念的基礎上試圖對這些問題進行解答。本文以國際金融危機對我國出口貿(mào)易傳染的實證研究為題,結合我國出口貿(mào)易的特點著重分析了次貸危機與歐債危機的爆發(fā)根源和傳染機制,發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機的爆發(fā)對我國出口貿(mào)易最直接的影響體現(xiàn)在:外貿(mào)需求的減少以及我國出口產(chǎn)品價格優(yōu)勢的喪失。因此,為驗證了金融危機對我國出口貿(mào)易傳染的收入效應和價格效應的存在性,本文通過構建向量自回歸模型,利用參數(shù)估計分析、脈沖響應分析和方差分解分析等檢驗方法對美國次貸危機以及歐洲債務危機對我國出口貿(mào)易的傳染進行了實證研究。分析結果顯示,由于我國加工貿(mào)易的競爭優(yōu)勢主要來自于低成本、低價格的制造品,出口貿(mào)易的穩(wěn)定性很大程度上取決于國際市場的需求變化,而金融危機的爆發(fā)往往導致市場需求的下降;此外,金融危機的擴散會通過匯率機制使得我國出口商品在國際市場上的相對價格升高,進而造成對我國外貿(mào)需求的下降。當前正是我國經(jīng)濟轉型的攻堅期,優(yōu)化出口貿(mào)易結構,提高出口商品的國際競爭力對于保障我國經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)有序發(fā)展具有重要意義。為此,本文在第六章根據(jù)前文總結的我國出口貿(mào)易的特點以及外貿(mào)環(huán)境發(fā)生的新變化,提出關于加快對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展方式轉變、優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結構、調(diào)整貿(mào)易政策,促進進出口貿(mào)易平衡發(fā)展以及建立科學穩(wěn)定有效的人民幣匯率機制等方面的具體建議,為有關部門增強我國出口貿(mào)易抵御金融危機的能力提供借鑒與參考。
[Abstract]:In the trend of economic globalization, the closer the economic exchanges between countries, the more dependent each other. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, China has gradually developed into an export-oriented foreign trade economy. The development of export trade is increasingly affected and restricted by the external environment. The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States, which swept the world in 2008, and the subsequent debt crisis, which hit Europe, have caused great damage to the stability of the global trading environment. The export trade enterprises of our country have been badly hit, and the export trade of our country has declined precipitously. So, in what way does a country's financial crisis affect the foreign trade of its trading partners? What are the underlying infectious mechanisms? What measures should be taken to prevent the financial crisis and improve the ability to resist the financial crisis? This paper tries to answer these questions on the basis of summing up the theory of financial crisis contagion and the related concepts of export trade. Based on the empirical study of the contagion of China's export trade caused by the international financial crisis, this paper focuses on the analysis of the root causes and contagion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in combination with the characteristics of China's export trade. It is found that the most direct impact of the outbreak of the financial crisis on China's export trade lies in the reduction of foreign trade demand and the loss of the price advantage of China's export products. Therefore, in order to verify the existence of the income and price effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion in China, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model, and analyzes the effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion by parameter estimation. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis are used to study the contagion of US sub-prime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis to China's export trade. The results show that because the competitive advantage of China's processing trade mainly comes from low-cost and low-cost manufactured goods, the stability of export trade depends to a large extent on the changes in demand in the international market. The outbreak of financial crisis often leads to the decline of market demand; in addition, the spread of financial crisis will increase the relative price of Chinese export commodities in the international market through the exchange rate mechanism, and then cause the decline of foreign trade demand of our country. At present, it is a critical period for China's economic transformation. It is of great significance to optimize the structure of export trade and improve the international competitiveness of export commodities in order to ensure the smooth and orderly development of China's economy. Therefore, in the sixth chapter, according to the characteristics of China's export trade and the new changes in the foreign trade environment, this paper puts forward some suggestions on speeding up the transformation of foreign trade development mode, optimizing the trade structure, and adjusting the trade policy. The concrete suggestions on promoting the balanced development of import and export trade and establishing a scientific stable and effective RMB exchange rate mechanism provide reference and reference for the relevant departments to strengthen the ability of China's export trade to resist the financial crisis.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62;F831.59
本文編號：2271645
[Abstract]:In the trend of economic globalization, the closer the economic exchanges between countries, the more dependent each other. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, China has gradually developed into an export-oriented foreign trade economy. The development of export trade is increasingly affected and restricted by the external environment. The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States, which swept the world in 2008, and the subsequent debt crisis, which hit Europe, have caused great damage to the stability of the global trading environment. The export trade enterprises of our country have been badly hit, and the export trade of our country has declined precipitously. So, in what way does a country's financial crisis affect the foreign trade of its trading partners? What are the underlying infectious mechanisms? What measures should be taken to prevent the financial crisis and improve the ability to resist the financial crisis? This paper tries to answer these questions on the basis of summing up the theory of financial crisis contagion and the related concepts of export trade. Based on the empirical study of the contagion of China's export trade caused by the international financial crisis, this paper focuses on the analysis of the root causes and contagion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in combination with the characteristics of China's export trade. It is found that the most direct impact of the outbreak of the financial crisis on China's export trade lies in the reduction of foreign trade demand and the loss of the price advantage of China's export products. Therefore, in order to verify the existence of the income and price effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion in China, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model, and analyzes the effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion by parameter estimation. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis are used to study the contagion of US sub-prime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis to China's export trade. The results show that because the competitive advantage of China's processing trade mainly comes from low-cost and low-cost manufactured goods, the stability of export trade depends to a large extent on the changes in demand in the international market. The outbreak of financial crisis often leads to the decline of market demand; in addition, the spread of financial crisis will increase the relative price of Chinese export commodities in the international market through the exchange rate mechanism, and then cause the decline of foreign trade demand of our country. At present, it is a critical period for China's economic transformation. It is of great significance to optimize the structure of export trade and improve the international competitiveness of export commodities in order to ensure the smooth and orderly development of China's economy. Therefore, in the sixth chapter, according to the characteristics of China's export trade and the new changes in the foreign trade environment, this paper puts forward some suggestions on speeding up the transformation of foreign trade development mode, optimizing the trade structure, and adjusting the trade policy. The concrete suggestions on promoting the balanced development of import and export trade and establishing a scientific stable and effective RMB exchange rate mechanism provide reference and reference for the relevant departments to strengthen the ability of China's export trade to resist the financial crisis.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62;F831.59
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