【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的趨勢(shì)下,各國(guó)之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)越來(lái)越緊密,彼此之間的依賴性也越來(lái)越強(qiáng)。隨著我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放程度的不斷加深,我國(guó)已經(jīng)逐漸發(fā)展為出口導(dǎo)向型外貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì),出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展也越來(lái)越多地受到外部環(huán)境的影響和制約。08年席卷全球的美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)以及隨后襲擾歐洲的債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)全球貿(mào)易環(huán)境的穩(wěn)定造成十分嚴(yán)重的破壞,使得我國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易企業(yè)受到重創(chuàng),我國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)斷崖式下滑。那么,一國(guó)爆發(fā)的金融危機(jī)到底通過(guò)何種方式影響其貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易?其中隱藏的傳染機(jī)制是什么?而我國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易應(yīng)采取哪些措施防范金融危機(jī)并提高抵御金融危機(jī)的能力?本文在梳理歸納有關(guān)金融危機(jī)傳染理論和出口貿(mào)易相關(guān)概念的基礎(chǔ)上試圖對(duì)這些問(wèn)題進(jìn)行解答。本文以國(guó)際金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易傳染的實(shí)證研究為題,結(jié)合我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn)著重分析了次貸危機(jī)與歐債危機(jī)的爆發(fā)根源和傳染機(jī)制,發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易最直接的影響體現(xiàn)在:外貿(mào)需求的減少以及我國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì)的喪失。因此,為驗(yàn)證了金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易傳染的收入效應(yīng)和價(jià)格效應(yīng)的存在性,本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型,利用參數(shù)估計(jì)分析、脈沖響應(yīng)分析和方差分解分析等檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)以及歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的傳染進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。分析結(jié)果顯示,由于我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)主要來(lái)自于低成本、低價(jià)格的制造品,出口貿(mào)易的穩(wěn)定性很大程度上取決于國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的需求變化,而金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)往往導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)需求的下降;此外,金融危機(jī)的擴(kuò)散會(huì)通過(guò)匯率機(jī)制使得我國(guó)出口商品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的相對(duì)價(jià)格升高,進(jìn)而造成對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)需求的下降。當(dāng)前正是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的攻堅(jiān)期,優(yōu)化出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),提高出口商品的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力對(duì)于保障我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)有序發(fā)展具有重要意義。為此,本文在第六章根據(jù)前文總結(jié)的我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn)以及外貿(mào)環(huán)境發(fā)生的新變化,提出關(guān)于加快對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變、優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、調(diào)整貿(mào)易政策,促進(jìn)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易平衡發(fā)展以及建立科學(xué)穩(wěn)定有效的人民幣匯率機(jī)制等方面的具體建議,為有關(guān)部門增強(qiáng)我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易抵御金融危機(jī)的能力提供借鑒與參考。
[Abstract]:In the trend of economic globalization, the closer the economic exchanges between countries, the more dependent each other. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, China has gradually developed into an export-oriented foreign trade economy. The development of export trade is increasingly affected and restricted by the external environment. The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States, which swept the world in 2008, and the subsequent debt crisis, which hit Europe, have caused great damage to the stability of the global trading environment. The export trade enterprises of our country have been badly hit, and the export trade of our country has declined precipitously. So, in what way does a country's financial crisis affect the foreign trade of its trading partners? What are the underlying infectious mechanisms? What measures should be taken to prevent the financial crisis and improve the ability to resist the financial crisis? This paper tries to answer these questions on the basis of summing up the theory of financial crisis contagion and the related concepts of export trade. Based on the empirical study of the contagion of China's export trade caused by the international financial crisis, this paper focuses on the analysis of the root causes and contagion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in combination with the characteristics of China's export trade. It is found that the most direct impact of the outbreak of the financial crisis on China's export trade lies in the reduction of foreign trade demand and the loss of the price advantage of China's export products. Therefore, in order to verify the existence of the income and price effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion in China, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model, and analyzes the effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion by parameter estimation. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis are used to study the contagion of US sub-prime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis to China's export trade. The results show that because the competitive advantage of China's processing trade mainly comes from low-cost and low-cost manufactured goods, the stability of export trade depends to a large extent on the changes in demand in the international market. The outbreak of financial crisis often leads to the decline of market demand; in addition, the spread of financial crisis will increase the relative price of Chinese export commodities in the international market through the exchange rate mechanism, and then cause the decline of foreign trade demand of our country. At present, it is a critical period for China's economic transformation. It is of great significance to optimize the structure of export trade and improve the international competitiveness of export commodities in order to ensure the smooth and orderly development of China's economy. Therefore, in the sixth chapter, according to the characteristics of China's export trade and the new changes in the foreign trade environment, this paper puts forward some suggestions on speeding up the transformation of foreign trade development mode, optimizing the trade structure, and adjusting the trade policy. The concrete suggestions on promoting the balanced development of import and export trade and establishing a scientific stable and effective RMB exchange rate mechanism provide reference and reference for the relevant departments to strengthen the ability of China's export trade to resist the financial crisis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F831.59

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