【摘要】：明斯基的金融脆弱性理論認(rèn)為貨幣具有天然的脆弱性,銀行業(yè)作為資金融通的重要中介機(jī)構(gòu),經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的惡化容易造成銀行危機(jī),這種現(xiàn)實根源于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期變化。當(dāng)前我國經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)增速換擋器、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整陣痛期以及前期政策消化的三期疊加階段,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的變動會影響商業(yè)銀行的信貸資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量,而這種影響會反作用于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)。因此在新的時代背景下研究宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率的影響十分具有意義。經(jīng)過對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的研讀,本文從理論以及實證兩個方面梳理與分析宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對我國商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率的影響。從理論角度出發(fā),本文首先詳細(xì)分析了商業(yè)銀行信貸的順周期性,其次論述了商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量和居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)四個宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的反向變化關(guān)系。從實證角度出發(fā),通過構(gòu)建上述四個指標(biāo)與商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率的VAR模型,在經(jīng)過數(shù)據(jù)平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗和格蘭杰因果檢驗后使用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)與方差分解法進(jìn)行動態(tài)分析。實證結(jié)果表明:國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長率、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量增長率、居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)同比以及全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資增長率總體均與商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系;通過方差分解可知,隨著時間的變化,商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率本身、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量增長率、居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)同比、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長率與全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資增長率對商業(yè)銀行不良貸款率的貢獻(xiàn)度依序逐漸減少。結(jié)合理論分析與實證分析,為了促進(jìn)商業(yè)銀行健康發(fā)展,本文從以下兩個角度提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。從商業(yè)銀行層面有如下建議:一、完善公司治理體制,樹立合乎發(fā)展規(guī)律的經(jīng)營理念;二、健全風(fēng)險管理體制,提高風(fēng)險管理水平;三、加強(qiáng)對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的關(guān)注。從政府層面有如下建議:一、實施逆周期資本緩沖政策,減輕金融機(jī)構(gòu)共振;二、鼓勵發(fā)展直接融資市場;三、適當(dāng)放松金融管制,鼓勵金融創(chuàng)新。
[Abstract]:Minsky's theory of financial fragility holds that money is naturally fragile and that the deterioration of the economic base of the banking sector, as an important intermediary for financing, is likely to cause banking crisis. This reality is rooted in the changes of the economic cycle. In the three-phase superposition stage, macroeconomic changes will affect the quality of credit assets of commercial banks, and this effect will react to macroeconomic. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of macroeconomic factors on the non-performing loan rate of commercial banks in the new era. From the theoretical point of view, this paper firstly analyzes the pro-cyclicality of commercial bank credit, secondly discusses the non-performing loan rate and GDP of commercial banks, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society, the money supply in a broad sense and the GDP of the whole society. From the empirical point of view, this paper constructs the VAR model of the above four indicators and the non-performing loan rate of commercial banks, and makes a dynamic analysis by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method after data stationarity test, cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results show that the growth rate of GDP, the growth rate of money supply in a broad sense, the growth rate of consumer price index and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society are negatively correlated with the non-performing loan rate of commercial banks. The contribution of the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of fixed assets investment to the rate of non-performing loans of commercial banks decreases in sequence. Combined with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policies from the following two perspectives to promote the healthy development of commercial banks From the commercial bank level, there are the following suggestions: first, improve the corporate governance system, establish a business philosophy in line with the law of development; second, improve the risk management system, improve the level of risk management; third, strengthen the attention to the macroeconomic situation. Two, encourage the development of direct financing market; three, appropriately relax financial regulation and encourage financial innovation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.4;F124

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 魏巍;蔣海;龐素琳;;貨幣政策、監(jiān)管政策與銀行信貸行為——基于中國銀行業(yè)的實證分析(2002-2012)[J];國際金融研究;2016年05期

2 李后建;劉思亞;;銀行信貸、所有權(quán)性質(zhì)與企業(yè)創(chuàng)新[J];科學(xué)學(xué)研究;2015年07期

3 戰(zhàn)明華;;金融摩擦、貨幣政策銀行信貸渠道與信貸資源的產(chǎn)業(yè)間錯配[J];金融研究;2015年05期

4 呂懷立;李婉麗;;金融創(chuàng)新、私有企業(yè)應(yīng)計質(zhì)量與非銀行信貸融資[J];會計研究;2015年03期

5 雷光勇;王文忠;邱保印;;政治沖擊、銀行信貸與會計穩(wěn)健性[J];財經(jīng)研究;2015年03期

6 王拉娣;安勇;王佳;;房價波動與銀行信貸風(fēng)險的動態(tài)相關(guān)關(guān)系研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問題;2014年12期

7 陳旭東;何艷軍;張鎮(zhèn)疆;;貨幣政策、銀行信貸行為與貸款損失準(zhǔn)備——基于中國商業(yè)銀行的實證研究[J];國際金融研究;2014年10期

8 陳清萍;鮑曉華;;融資約束、金融發(fā)展與我國企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量——基于銀行信貸和商業(yè)信貸的雙重視角[J];現(xiàn)代財經(jīng)(天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報);2014年05期

9 紀(jì)志宏;周黎安;王鵬;趙鷹妍;;地方官員晉升激勵與銀行信貸——來自中國城市商業(yè)銀行的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)[J];金融研究;2014年01期

10 張細(xì)松;;商業(yè)銀行不良貸款對貨幣流動性的影響分析[J];金融教育研究;2013年04期

，

本文編號：2207046