“滬港通”跨境資本流動(dòng)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-11 20:48
【摘要】：本文通過整理滬港通跨境資金清算機(jī)制,從國際收支和結(jié)算參與者資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表變化的視角,考察了滬港通跨境資金清算帶來的資本外流,發(fā)現(xiàn)滬港通帶來的跨境資本流動(dòng)不會(huì)影響外匯儲(chǔ)備,資本的流入和流出只會(huì)帶來離岸人民幣存量的增加或者減少。本文經(jīng)過分析后認(rèn)為,滬港通最主要的政策目的是通過建立離岸人民幣資產(chǎn)池,利用港股通資金外流擴(kuò)大離岸人民幣存量,再利用滬股通形成離岸人民幣回流機(jī)制,以此促進(jìn)人民幣國際化,所以滬港通帶來的資本外流某種意義上是有積極意義的。本文通過格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)的方法考察滬港通交易流量與兩地市場股指變化率之間的關(guān)系,并用單因素方差分析的方法考察滬股通交易流量與人民幣兌港幣離在岸匯差之間的關(guān)系。經(jīng)過對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)處理結(jié)果的分析,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)境內(nèi)投資者主要出于對(duì)境外資產(chǎn)配置的需求而投資港股通,境外投資者投資滬股通則主要是出于獲取資本利得的目的。境內(nèi)投資者對(duì)港股通交易持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度,在人民幣匯率預(yù)期波動(dòng)較大的情況下,同時(shí)減少了港股通的買入和賣出量。目前來看,在滬港通規(guī)模相對(duì)較小的情況下,其制度設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)避了境外資金對(duì)境內(nèi)A股市場的投機(jī)沖擊,且國內(nèi)銀行體系完全可以應(yīng)對(duì)滬港通資金清算帶來的銀行體系流動(dòng)性問題。但隨著離岸人民幣存量的不斷擴(kuò)大,需要關(guān)注過剩的離岸人民幣回流帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),過剩的離岸人民幣存量將會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橥稒C(jī)資金,以各種合法、非法渠道流回境內(nèi),因?yàn)槠洹叭嗣駧拧鄙矸荻y以監(jiān)管,可能對(duì)中國境內(nèi)的金融體系造成傷害,甚至危害實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。對(duì)此,應(yīng)允許境內(nèi)企業(yè)發(fā)行離岸人民幣債券,鼓勵(lì)跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算當(dāng)中使用離岸人民幣,對(duì)離岸人民幣開放更多的二級(jí)市場,促進(jìn)離岸人民幣的使用。
[Abstract]:This paper examines the capital outflow from the balance of payments and balance sheet changes of the participants in the cross-border fund clearing mechanism of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect from the perspective of balance sheet changes. It is found that the cross-border capital flow brought by the Stock Connect of Shanghai and Hong Kong will not affect foreign exchange reserves, and the inflow and outflow of capital will only increase or decrease the stock of offshore RMB. After the analysis, this paper thinks that the main policy aim of the Stock Connect is to expand the offshore RMB stock by establishing the offshore RMB asset pool, to use the Hong Kong stock exchange capital outflow to expand the offshore RMB stock, and then to use the Shanghai Stock Connect to form the offshore RMB reflux mechanism. In order to promote the internationalization of the RMB, the capital outflow brought by the Stock Connect is positive in a sense. In this paper, the Granger causality test is used to investigate the relationship between the Shanghai Stock Connect transaction flow and the change rate of stock index in both markets. The single factor analysis of variance is used to study the relationship between the flow of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the difference between RMB and Hong Kong dollar. Through the analysis of the data processing results, it is found that domestic investors mainly invest in Hong Kong stocks for the purpose of overseas asset allocation, and foreign investors invest in Shanghai stocks mainly for the purpose of obtaining capital gains. Domestic investors are wary of trading stocks in Hong Kong, while reducing buying and selling at the same time as the renminbi is expected to fluctuate. At present, under the relatively small scale of the Stock Connect between Shanghai and Hong Kong, its system is designed to avoid the speculative impact of foreign funds on the domestic A-share market. And the domestic banking system can fully deal with the liquidity of the banking system caused by the liquidation of Shanghai Stock Connect. However, as the stock of offshore renminbi continues to expand, attention needs to be paid to the risks brought about by the return of excess offshore renminbi. The excess stock of offshore renminbi will be converted into speculative funds and be diverted back to China through various legal and illegal channels. Because of its "yuan" status and difficult to regulate, may harm the financial system in China, or even the healthy development of the real economy. In this regard, domestic enterprises should be allowed to issue offshore renminbi bonds, encourage the use of offshore renminbi in cross-border trade settlement, open more secondary markets to offshore renminbi, and promote the use of offshore renminbi.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
[Abstract]:This paper examines the capital outflow from the balance of payments and balance sheet changes of the participants in the cross-border fund clearing mechanism of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect from the perspective of balance sheet changes. It is found that the cross-border capital flow brought by the Stock Connect of Shanghai and Hong Kong will not affect foreign exchange reserves, and the inflow and outflow of capital will only increase or decrease the stock of offshore RMB. After the analysis, this paper thinks that the main policy aim of the Stock Connect is to expand the offshore RMB stock by establishing the offshore RMB asset pool, to use the Hong Kong stock exchange capital outflow to expand the offshore RMB stock, and then to use the Shanghai Stock Connect to form the offshore RMB reflux mechanism. In order to promote the internationalization of the RMB, the capital outflow brought by the Stock Connect is positive in a sense. In this paper, the Granger causality test is used to investigate the relationship between the Shanghai Stock Connect transaction flow and the change rate of stock index in both markets. The single factor analysis of variance is used to study the relationship between the flow of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the difference between RMB and Hong Kong dollar. Through the analysis of the data processing results, it is found that domestic investors mainly invest in Hong Kong stocks for the purpose of overseas asset allocation, and foreign investors invest in Shanghai stocks mainly for the purpose of obtaining capital gains. Domestic investors are wary of trading stocks in Hong Kong, while reducing buying and selling at the same time as the renminbi is expected to fluctuate. At present, under the relatively small scale of the Stock Connect between Shanghai and Hong Kong, its system is designed to avoid the speculative impact of foreign funds on the domestic A-share market. And the domestic banking system can fully deal with the liquidity of the banking system caused by the liquidation of Shanghai Stock Connect. However, as the stock of offshore renminbi continues to expand, attention needs to be paid to the risks brought about by the return of excess offshore renminbi. The excess stock of offshore renminbi will be converted into speculative funds and be diverted back to China through various legal and illegal channels. Because of its "yuan" status and difficult to regulate, may harm the financial system in China, or even the healthy development of the real economy. In this regard, domestic enterprises should be allowed to issue offshore renminbi bonds, encourage the use of offshore renminbi in cross-border trade settlement, open more secondary markets to offshore renminbi, and promote the use of offshore renminbi.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
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