本文選題：資本轉(zhuǎn)移 + 門檻模型�。� 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》2017年11期

【摘要】：2017年7月,全國(guó)金融工作會(huì)議將"主動(dòng)防范化解系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)"放在了重要位置。在開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下國(guó)內(nèi)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要來源通常是國(guó)際資本流動(dòng),而貨幣政策對(duì)資本轉(zhuǎn)移的有效應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制是防范和化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政策手段。因此,構(gòu)建經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為門檻的資本轉(zhuǎn)移影響路徑模型,在相異經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)間刻畫利率和匯率等貨幣政策措施對(duì)資本轉(zhuǎn)移的不同調(diào)控作用。本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段,匯率和利率對(duì)跨境資本流動(dòng)的影響和作用完全不同。所以,對(duì)于資本轉(zhuǎn)移的調(diào)控必須實(shí)施針對(duì)性措施以防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。不同階段匯率的同向影響意味著匯率調(diào)控應(yīng)遵循市場(chǎng)化規(guī)律和特質(zhì),我國(guó)應(yīng)建立適應(yīng)人民幣匯率變動(dòng)規(guī)律的有管理的離散匯率機(jī)制。而利率的相逆調(diào)控方向說明需要強(qiáng)調(diào)利率的導(dǎo)向性指導(dǎo)作用和水平的穩(wěn)定性控制。
[Abstract]:In July 2017, the National Conference on Financial work put "active prevention and management of systemic financial risks" in an important position. Under the condition of open economy, the important source of domestic systemic financial risk is usually international capital flow, and the effective coping mechanism of monetary policy to capital transfer is the policy means to prevent and resolve financial risk. Therefore, a capital transfer influence path model with economic growth as the threshold is constructed to describe the different regulatory effects of monetary policy measures such as interest rate and exchange rate on capital transfer in different economic regions. The empirical results show that the effects of exchange rate and interest rate on cross-border capital flows are completely different in different stages of economic development. Therefore, the regulation and control of capital transfer must implement targeted measures to prevent financial risks. The codirectional influence of the exchange rate in different stages means that the exchange rate regulation should follow the marketization laws and characteristics, and China should establish a managed discrete exchange rate mechanism adapted to the law of RMB exchange rate change. The reverse direction of interest rate indicates that it is necessary to emphasize the guiding role of interest rate and the stability control of level.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“人民幣雙邊波動(dòng)新常態(tài)下貨幣政策與匯率政策的沖突與協(xié)調(diào)研究”(15BJY156) 教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“金融業(yè)雙向開放推動(dòng)下中國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)壓力的聚集與釋放及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究”(16YJA790023) 吉林大學(xué)哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)青年學(xué)術(shù)領(lǐng)袖培育計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“開放型經(jīng)濟(jì)新體制與人民幣國(guó)際化研究”(2015FRLX16)
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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