本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《廈門(mén)大學(xué)》2008年碩士論文

【摘要】： 近年來(lái),房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、尤其是住房產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)新的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn),房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),在國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中具有舉足輕重的作用,是國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的晴雨表;房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展極大地促進(jìn)了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,同時(shí)也帶動(dòng)了耐用消費(fèi)品、裝潢材料等的消費(fèi),從而拉動(dòng)整個(gè)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)的活躍,乃至GDP的增長(zhǎng),隨著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的不斷發(fā)展以及房?jī)r(jià)的一路飆升,與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)密切相關(guān)的房地產(chǎn)貸款也成為人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。2007年爆發(fā)的美國(guó)“次級(jí)房貸”引起了全球金融市場(chǎng)的混亂,淋漓盡致地展現(xiàn)了“現(xiàn)代金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”的新變化,也向我們敲響了關(guān)注金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的警鐘;同時(shí)提醒我們,越是在市場(chǎng)繁榮時(shí)期,越應(yīng)該加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制和市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管,要建立房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格監(jiān)控制度和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫預(yù)警制度,采取多種措施穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng),保持房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)有序健康發(fā)展。此時(shí)來(lái)研究房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有非同一般的意義:可以從一定程度上減少金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或者降低金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的危害;同時(shí),對(duì)房地產(chǎn)金融行業(yè)的研究又可以為政府的宏觀管理提供依據(jù)。 本文在通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)房地產(chǎn)金融、房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成因分析及VaR理論做了相關(guān)介紹,在了解這些基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)上海市1993——2007年GDP、居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、金融業(yè)增加值、建筑業(yè)增加值、商品房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格、房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資額、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值及國(guó)內(nèi)貸款8個(gè)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析研究,根據(jù)研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行蒙特卡洛模擬,求出房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商所面臨的VaR值,據(jù)此來(lái)分析房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì),同時(shí)本文還研究了房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中另一個(gè)重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn),即對(duì)房地產(chǎn)抵押貸款信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,為銀行在個(gè)人住房貸款方面提供一定的理論依據(jù)和技術(shù)支持,最后在總結(jié)全文的基礎(chǔ)上給出了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的一些具體措施,以期達(dá)到更好的防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的目的。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要在于過(guò)去用蒙特卡洛方法分析VaR時(shí),是用歷史數(shù)據(jù)的均值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差進(jìn)行模擬,由于近年來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)于迅速,用均值分析會(huì)得出與市場(chǎng)發(fā)展方向不太一致的過(guò)于悲觀的結(jié)果,我們采用各指標(biāo)2008年的預(yù)測(cè)值代替歷史數(shù)據(jù)的均值,用殘差標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差代替原來(lái)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,進(jìn)行蒙特卡洛模擬;同時(shí)聯(lián)系目前國(guó)家緊的貨幣政策,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)貸款做了壓力試驗(yàn),得出國(guó)內(nèi)貸款的不利變動(dòng)會(huì)給房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商帶來(lái)很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)論,這可以使房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商及早認(rèn)識(shí)到資金問(wèn)題并進(jìn)行多元化籌資。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry, especially the housing industry, has become the new growth point of our national economy. As the pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry plays an important role in the national economic development. It is a barometer of national economic development. The rapid development of the real estate industry has greatly promoted the economic development of our country. At the same time, it has also led to the consumption of consumer durables and upholstery materials, thus stimulating the active consumer market and even the growth of GDP. With the continuous development of the real estate market and the soaring housing prices, real estate loans closely related to the real estate industry have also become the focus of attention. The outbreak of 2007 in the United States "subprime mortgage" caused the global financial market chaos, Vividly and vividly, the new changes in "modern financial risks" have sounded a wake-up call for us to pay close attention to financial risks. At the same time, we are reminded that the more prosperous the market, the more we should strengthen risk control and market regulation. It is necessary to establish a real estate price monitoring system and a real estate market bubble warning system, take various measures to stabilize the market and maintain the orderly and healthy development of the real estate market. It is of great significance to study the financial risk of real estate at this time: it can reduce the financial risk or the harm of the financial risk to a certain extent; at the same time, The research on the real estate finance industry can provide the basis for the macro-management of the government. Based on the research of domestic and foreign literature, this paper introduces the causes of real estate finance, real estate financial risk and VaR theory, and based on the understanding of these basic knowledge, According to Shanghai's GDP from 1993 to 2007, consumer price index, added value of financial industry, added value of construction industry, sale price of commercial housing, investment of real estate development, added value of real estate industry and domestic loan were analyzed and studied. Based on the results of Monte Carlo simulation, the VaR value of real estate developers is calculated, and the trend of real estate market development is analyzed. At the same time, another important risk in real estate financial risk is also studied in this paper. That is, real estate mortgage credit risk empirical analysis, for the bank in personal housing loans to provide a certain theoretical basis and technical support, Finally, on the basis of summing up the full text, this paper gives some concrete measures to prevent the real estate financial risks in our country, in order to achieve the purpose of better preventing the real estate financial risks. The main innovation of this paper is that in the past, when using Monte Carlo method to analyze VaR, we used the mean and standard deviation of historical data to simulate it. Because of the rapid development of Chinese economy in recent years, By means analysis, we can get the pessimistic result which is not consistent with the market development direction. We use the forecast value of each index in 2008 to replace the mean of historical data, and replace the original standard deviation with the standard deviation of residual error, and carry out Monte Carlo simulation. At the same time, in the light of the tight monetary policy of the country at present, a pressure experiment has been made on domestic loans, and the conclusion is that adverse changes in domestic loans will bring great risks to real estate developers. This allows real estate developers to recognize the funding problem early and diversify financing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門(mén)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.2;F293.3;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 陳明明;;基于VaR模型的我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融的市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估[J];內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2012年05期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 吳洋;我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融產(chǎn)品風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2011年

2 宋勇;我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行房地產(chǎn)貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[D];河北大學(xué);2010年

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本文編號(hào)：1851960