本文選題：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)　切入點(diǎn)：金融周期　出處：《新金融》2017年02期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：2016年經(jīng)濟(jì)周期出現(xiàn)"類(lèi)滯脹"苗頭,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速延續(xù)2012年以來(lái)的下行趨勢(shì),通脹卻開(kāi)始在波動(dòng)中上行。"類(lèi)滯脹"是金融周期接近頂部的階段性現(xiàn)象,但可能引發(fā)貨幣緊縮,導(dǎo)致金融周期轉(zhuǎn)向,進(jìn)入下半場(chǎng)。2017年"類(lèi)滯脹"態(tài)勢(shì)將更明顯,"滯"源于金融周期上半場(chǎng)中,地產(chǎn)與金融過(guò)度擴(kuò)張,造成資源錯(cuò)配拖累潛在增長(zhǎng),以及地產(chǎn)投資帶動(dòng)高污染行業(yè),加劇資源約束。"脹"在于房?jī)r(jià)與信貸的順周期性通過(guò)直接與間接渠道影響物價(jià),并存在隱性通脹轉(zhuǎn)為顯性通脹的過(guò)程。當(dāng)前"緊信用"比"緊貨幣"更有必要,中期看,結(jié)構(gòu)性改革才是出路,公平導(dǎo)向的稅制改革和建立促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展的長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制尤其重要。
[Abstract]:In 2016, there were signs of "quasi-stagflation" in the economic cycle. Economic growth continued its downward trend since 2012, but inflation began to rise in volatility. "similar stagflation" is a phased phenomenon of the financial cycle near the top, but it may lead to monetary tightening. In 2017, the "stagflation" situation will be more obvious. The "stagnation" is due to the over-expansion of real estate and finance in the first half of the financial cycle, resulting in the mismatch of resources as a drag on potential growth. As well as real estate investment to drive high-pollution industries, aggravating resource constraints. "inflation" lies in the pro-cyclical impact of housing prices and credit through direct and indirect channels. There is also the process of transforming implicit inflation into explicit inflation. At present, "tight credit" is more necessary than "tight money". In the medium term, structural reform is the only way out. Fair-oriented tax reform and the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the healthy development of the real estate market is particularly important.
【作者單位】： 光大證券研究所;光大證券國(guó)際研究所;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832
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本文編號(hào)：1638709