本文關(guān)鍵詞： 匯率變動 外商直接投資 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自從2008年全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以后,世界各國經(jīng)濟(jì)受到了很大沖擊,發(fā)達(dá)國家復(fù)蘇動力不足,發(fā)展中國家增速減慢,全球需求低迷。2012年開始,中國GDP年增長率降到8%以下,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)亟待轉(zhuǎn)型,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級已迫在眉睫。在這種背景下,中國吸收外商投資水平仍保持穩(wěn)定增長,根據(jù)聯(lián)合國報告數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2016年世界外資流入量下降13%,外商對華投資逆勢增長,增速為2.3%,因此在目前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下滑、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化迫在眉睫之時,中國吸收外商直接投資對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與轉(zhuǎn)型的影響不容忽視。從匯率角度看,1994年中國第一次匯改以來,人民幣匯率制度逐漸完善,央行對人民幣匯率的干預(yù)越來越小,人民幣匯率彈性日漸增大。匯率的變動會影響跨國經(jīng)營中的收益和風(fēng)險,因而探究人民幣匯率水平的變動對中國吸收外商投資規(guī)模及投資結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先對前人的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理和述評,總結(jié)以往研究中的方法與不足;其次對匯率影響FDI的機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究,為下文的研究提供理論基礎(chǔ);接著分析了人民幣匯率制度和外商對華投資的發(fā)展歷程及現(xiàn)狀,并直觀地對比研究了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與中國吸收外商投資的總體規(guī)模、三次產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收外資的規(guī)模的關(guān)系;隨后采用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析、誤差修正模型的方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,在建立模型時還引入了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢、中國對外開放程度作為解釋變量,全面地研究了人民幣匯率水平變動影響外商投資規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)的情況。實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果表明:從整體角度來看,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的升高對外商直接投資的發(fā)展有促進(jìn)作用;從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的角度看,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收外資關(guān)系不明確,但人民幣匯率升值會激勵第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收外商投資的發(fā)展,且對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收外資的促進(jìn)作用較大。同時,當(dāng)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率升高時,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收外資所受到的推動作用大于第三產(chǎn)業(yè),而人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率下降又會同時抑制第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)吸收外資,可知人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動對外商投資結(jié)構(gòu)、國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級并沒有顯著作用。最后,本文基于當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢和匯率變動狀況,結(jié)合研究結(jié)論,提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,并對未來的研究方向進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been hit hard. The recovery of developed countries has been insufficient, the growth rate of developing countries has slowed down, and global demand has been low. Since 2012, the annual growth rate of China's GDP has fallen below 8%. The domestic economy is in urgent need of transformation and the upgrading of the industrial structure is imminent. Against this background, China's level of foreign investment continues to grow steadily. According to United Nations report data, in 2016, the inflow of foreign investment in the world dropped by 13 percent, and foreign investment in China increased by 2.3percent against the trend. Therefore, at a time when China's economic growth rate is declining and industrial structure optimization is imminent, The impact of China's foreign direct investment on China's economic development and transformation cannot be ignored. From the point of view of the exchange rate, since China's first exchange rate reform in 1994, the RMB exchange rate regime has gradually improved, and the central bank's intervention in the RMB exchange rate has become smaller and smaller. The exchange rate elasticity of RMB is increasing day by day. The change of exchange rate will affect the income and risk in transnational operation. Therefore, this paper probes into the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the scale and structure of foreign investment absorbed by China. It has some practical significance. Firstly, this paper collates and reviews the previous literatures, summarizes the methods and shortcomings of previous studies, and then studies the mechanism of exchange rate influencing FDI, which provides the theoretical basis for the following research. Then, it analyzes the development history and current situation of RMB exchange rate system and foreign investment in China, and intuitively studies the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the total scale of foreign investment absorbed by China, and the scale of three industries absorbing foreign capital. Then the unit root test, cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to make empirical analysis. When the model is established, the economic development of China, the world economic situation and the degree of China's opening to the outside world are introduced as explanatory variables. This paper comprehensively studies the influence of RMB exchange rate level on the scale and structure of foreign investment. The empirical results show that: from the overall point of view, the rise of the real effective exchange rate of RMB can promote the development of foreign direct investment; From the perspective of the three industries, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the absorption of foreign capital by the primary industry is not clear, but the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will stimulate the development of the second and tertiary industries to absorb foreign investment. At the same time, when the real effective exchange rate of RMB rises, the secondary industry receives more impetus than the tertiary industry. However, the decline in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will at the same time restrain the absorption of foreign capital by the tertiary industry. We can see that the change of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has no significant effect on the structure of foreign investment and the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure. Finally, Based on the current domestic and foreign economic situation and exchange rate changes, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions and prospects for the future research direction combined with the conclusions of the research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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