本文關(guān)鍵詞： 滯脹 菲利浦斯曲線 效率工資 理性預(yù)期 奧肯定律　出處：《天津工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：菲利普斯曲線的提出、修正與發(fā)展貫穿著西方國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實。在經(jīng)歷了 20世紀30年代的經(jīng)濟大蕭條之后,凱恩斯主義理論主導(dǎo)了西方經(jīng)濟政策的邏輯。經(jīng)濟運行的數(shù)據(jù)也大體呈現(xiàn)出通貨膨脹率與失業(yè)率之間的反方向變化的菲利普斯曲線形態(tài),以此為依據(jù)政策制定者在短期可以在高通貨膨脹和高失業(yè)率之間做出取舍。然而,在經(jīng)歷了相當(dāng)長時間的對經(jīng)濟的完美調(diào)控之后,20世紀70年代的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)否定了先前菲利普斯所描述的失業(yè)與通貨膨脹的關(guān)系,凱恩斯的理論不能對此現(xiàn)象做出令人信服的解釋,更提不出解決"滯脹"的具體措施,這成為一些自由學(xué)派批判凱恩斯理論的突破點。貨幣主義的代表人物弗里德曼在自然率假說的基礎(chǔ)上對菲利普斯曲線進行了擴展,認為其演變過程分為三個階段,其根據(jù)7個工業(yè)化國家通貨膨脹率和失業(yè)率的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)提出了從1966年開始的后]0年間通貨膨脹率和失業(yè)率是呈同方向變動的斜率為正的菲利普斯曲線。與此同時,一些其他經(jīng)濟學(xué)派也從其自身的理論出發(fā)從不同角度分析了 "滯脹"發(fā)生的原因。以此作為起點,本文在綜合各主要學(xué)派"滯脹"理論的基礎(chǔ)上,使用主流的宏觀經(jīng)濟模型對"滯脹"的正斜率菲利普斯曲線做出理論上的推導(dǎo)。并且結(jié)合發(fā)達國家在治理"滯脹"中的經(jīng)濟政策和新興經(jīng)濟體國家近年來出現(xiàn)的"滯脹"的原因,對所推導(dǎo)出的正斜率菲利普斯曲線表達式的經(jīng)濟含義進行解讀,提煉出應(yīng)對及預(yù)防"滯脹"的核心政策和對我國的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The proposed Phillips curve was revised and developed through the reality of economic development in western countries after the Great Depression in 1930s. Keynesian theory dominates the logic of western economic policy, and the data of economic operation generally show the Phillips curve of the opposite direction between inflation rate and unemployment rate. Based on this, policymakers can make a trade-off between high inflation and high unemployment in the short term. However, after a long period of perfect regulation of the economy. The economic data of 1970s negate the relationship between unemployment and inflation as previously described by Phillips, and Keynes' theory does not provide a convincing explanation for this phenomenon. The concrete measures to solve the problem of "stagflation" can not be put forward. This became a breakthrough point for some liberal schools to criticize Keynes' theory. Friedman, the representative of monetarism, expanded the Phillips curve on the basis of the natural rate hypothesis. It is considered that the evolution process can be divided into three stages. Based on the empirical data of inflation rate and unemployment rate in seven industrialized countries, a Phillips curve with a positive slope of the rate of inflation and unemployment in the same direction during the period from 1966 onwards is put forward. In the meantime. Some other economic schools have also analyzed the causes of stagflation from different angles from their own theories. As a starting point, this paper synthesizes the "stagflation" theory of the main schools. The mainstream macroeconomic model is used to deduce the positive slope Phillips curve of stagflation. And the causes of "stagflation" in emerging economies in recent years. This paper interprets the economic meaning of the derived positive slope Phillips curve expression, and abstracts the core policy to deal with and prevent "stagflation" and its reference significance to our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F822.5

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李力;楊柳;;開放經(jīng)濟新凱恩斯菲利普斯曲線研究述評[J];經(jīng)濟評論;2013年02期

2 王偉;戴菊貴;;三種菲利普斯曲線同異辨析[J];上海金融學(xué)院學(xué)報;2013年01期

3 鄭挺國;王霞;蘇娜;;通貨膨脹實時預(yù)測及菲利普斯曲線的適用性[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2012年03期

4 宋佳;曾憲萍;;英美治理“滯脹”的政策解析及對我國的啟示[J];經(jīng)濟體制改革;2012年01期

5 周琦;;淺析中國經(jīng)濟增長中的“滯脹”隱患[J];中國市場;2011年44期

6 馬克家;;淺論反滯脹措施[J];經(jīng)濟研究導(dǎo)刊;2011年30期

7 劉彥;;日本經(jīng)濟滯脹的治理及對我國的啟示[J];湖北經(jīng)濟學(xué)院學(xué)報(人文社會科學(xué)版);2011年09期

8 謝作詩;卞_g嘉;;又一個滯脹的時代[J];理論參考;2011年09期

9 李世春;;美國遠未陷入滯脹泥潭[J];理論參考;2011年09期

10 張曉晶;;滯脹成因的重新審視與中國的滯脹風(fēng)險[J];經(jīng)濟學(xué)動態(tài);2011年07期

，

本文編號：1449622