本文關(guān)鍵詞： 新常態(tài) 貨幣政策工具 VAR　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2007年之前,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展,GDP的年增長(zhǎng)率不斷刷新。在2010年底我國(guó)終結(jié)了日本長(zhǎng)達(dá)四十多年的世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的地位。但是在經(jīng)歷了經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)后,中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)步伐放緩,前期高速增長(zhǎng)中累積問(wèn)題和弊端的凸顯,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)亟待調(diào)整和升級(jí),改革難度不斷加大。學(xué)者將這一現(xiàn)象稱為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的新常態(tài)。貨幣政策已經(jīng)成為各國(guó)調(diào)節(jié)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的有效手段,而貨幣政策工具是央行為了達(dá)到貨幣政策的目標(biāo)而采取的措施。文章通過(guò)對(duì)新常態(tài)時(shí)期我國(guó)數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型貨幣政策工具的研究,以期找到適合這一時(shí)期的貨幣政策工具。文章從貨幣政策理論出發(fā),結(jié)合我國(guó)目前新常態(tài)下的貨幣環(huán)境,分析了我國(guó)貨幣政策工具的使用和貨幣政策工具的傳導(dǎo)渠道特征以及現(xiàn)在面臨的問(wèn)題。在實(shí)證分析方面選擇新常態(tài)時(shí)期的2010-2016年的月度數(shù)據(jù),以廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量M2和上海同業(yè)拆借率的隔夜R為數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型貨幣政策操作工具代表,對(duì)產(chǎn)出GDP和價(jià)格水平CPI建立VAR模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,分析發(fā)現(xiàn)無(wú)論是利率R還是廣義貨幣量M2與產(chǎn)出GDP和價(jià)格水平CPI均存在長(zhǎng)期的協(xié)整關(guān)系。從脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)上來(lái)看GDP和CPI對(duì)于來(lái)自M2的沖擊呈現(xiàn)持久的正向變動(dòng)的關(guān)系,而對(duì)來(lái)自R的沖擊呈現(xiàn)持久的負(fù)向變動(dòng)的關(guān)系,說(shuō)明在“新常態(tài)”下兩種貨幣政策工具均為有效的。就兩種貨幣政策工具的對(duì)比而言數(shù)量型貨幣政策工具在可控性水平上較優(yōu)而價(jià)格型工具則更顯著。同時(shí),為了在時(shí)間維度上分析數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型的貨幣政策工具的效果,選擇同樣的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)間接調(diào)控階段的2001-2007年建立的VAR模型進(jìn)行分析,縱向?qū)Ρ劝l(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)量型貨幣政策工具效果隨著時(shí)間減弱而價(jià)格型隨時(shí)間增加。文章的最后分析了目前我國(guó)數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型貨幣政策工具存在的一些問(wèn)題,結(jié)合新常態(tài)調(diào)控穩(wěn)定的背景得出數(shù)量型和價(jià)格型貨幣政策工具將在未來(lái)很長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)共存。所以,在新常態(tài)階段不僅要穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化的進(jìn)行還要對(duì)現(xiàn)有的貨幣政策工具進(jìn)行優(yōu)化并擴(kuò)大貨幣供應(yīng)量的測(cè)量口徑。
[Abstract]:Before 2007, China's economy was booming. In end of 2010, China ended the position of Japan as the world's second largest economy for more than 40 years. But after the rapid economic growth. China's rapid economic growth is slowing down, the accumulation of problems and drawbacks in the early period of rapid growth highlights, the industrial structure needs to be adjusted and upgraded. The reform is becoming more and more difficult. Scholars call this phenomenon the new normal of China's economy. Monetary policy has become an effective means for countries to regulate the macro-economy. Monetary policy tools are the measures taken by the central bank in order to achieve the goal of monetary policy. This paper studies the quantitative and price monetary policy instruments in the new normal period. In order to find the appropriate monetary policy tools for this period. This article from the monetary policy theory, combined with the current monetary environment under the new normal in China. This paper analyzes the use of monetary policy tools in China, the characteristics of transmission channels of monetary policy instruments and the current problems. In the empirical analysis, we choose the monthly data of 2010-2016 in the new normal period. Taking M2 of broad money supply and overnight R of Shanghai interbank offered rate as the representative of quantitative and price-type monetary policy operating tools, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the VAR model of output GDP and price-level CPI. It is found that both interest rate R and generalized monetary value M2 have long-term cointegration relationship with output GDP and price level CPI. From the impulse response function, we can see the impact of GDP and CPI on M2 from the point of view of impulse response function. Presents a long-lasting positive relationship. On the other hand, the impact from R shows a lasting negative change. It shows that the two monetary policy instruments are effective under the "New normal". Compared with the two monetary policy instruments, the quantitative monetary policy instruments are better in terms of controllability and the price-based instruments are more significant. At the same time. In order to analyze the effects of quantitative and price-based monetary policy tools in the time dimension, the same data is selected to analyze the VAR model established in the stage of indirect regulation from 2001 to 2007. The longitudinal comparison shows that the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy tools decreases with time while the price type increases with time. Finally, the paper analyzes some problems existing in quantitative and price-based monetary policy instruments in China. Combined with the background of the new normal regulation and stability, it is concluded that quantitative and price monetary policy tools will coexist for a long time in the future. In the new normal stage, we should not only advance the marketization of interest rate steadily, but also optimize the existing monetary policy tools and expand the measurement of money supply.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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