本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于EVA模型對(duì)我國(guó)券商類上市公司的估值研究　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：在證券市場(chǎng)的交易中,證券公司是溝通交易雙方最重要的中介機(jī)構(gòu)。1987年9月中國(guó)成立了第一家專業(yè)證券公司——深圳特區(qū)證券公司,自此以后,證券公司如雨后春筍般迅速發(fā)展起來。隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,國(guó)民的可支配財(cái)富得到快速累積,在投資者的眼中,我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)有著特定的渠道,可以將投資者的現(xiàn)有存款轉(zhuǎn)化為股本,這將有利于投資者創(chuàng)收其資本性的收入。普通民眾對(duì)證券市場(chǎng)的參與熱情越來越高漲,投資者的眼光也放在了炙手可熱的證券行業(yè)上,因此對(duì)于券商類上市公司的投資價(jià)值分析也越來越受關(guān)注。所以本文將采用EVA估值法對(duì)我國(guó)部分上市券商的價(jià)值進(jìn)行分析以達(dá)到防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、理性投資的目的。2016年末,我國(guó)證券公司共有129家,這129家證券公司總資產(chǎn)為5.79萬億元,凈資產(chǎn)為1.64萬億元,凈資本為1.47萬億元,全年實(shí)現(xiàn)營(yíng)業(yè)收入3279.94億元,實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤(rùn)1234.45億元,124家公司實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。通過數(shù)據(jù)我們可以看出,中國(guó)證券行業(yè)的發(fā)展,正在以一種健康、穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢(shì)向前進(jìn),注重公司管理和抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力,通過發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模,提高盈利能力和服務(wù)能力,依靠中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展將會(huì)有更加廣闊的發(fā)展。本文首先闡述了關(guān)于券商類上市公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的研究背景和研究意義,并簡(jiǎn)單的概括了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容和研究結(jié)構(gòu),對(duì)于國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者在EVA模型方面所做的研究進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單的回顧,并且做了總結(jié)評(píng)價(jià),然后指出了本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)以及反思了本文的不足。接著,對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的理論進(jìn)行比較分析,從企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估的含義入手,主要將價(jià)值評(píng)估方法分為成本法、收益法和市場(chǎng)法,對(duì)各種價(jià)值評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行比較分析。其次,是討論EVA模型對(duì)上市券商在估值方面的適用性,包括EVA估值法的含義,和EVA估值法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),根據(jù)券商類公司估值的特點(diǎn)及EVA模型的適用性,最終選定EVA模型。在上述一系列的準(zhǔn)備過后,本文對(duì)選取的上市券商進(jìn)行了基于EVA模型的實(shí)證分析,在以企業(yè)不同發(fā)展階段的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)EVA模型進(jìn)行分類,最終選擇了比較適合券商類上市公司的高速發(fā)展模型,詳細(xì)介紹了模型計(jì)算的方法和計(jì)算過程中需要的各個(gè)項(xiàng)目,并且對(duì)相關(guān)的會(huì)計(jì)科目進(jìn)行了會(huì)計(jì)調(diào)整。在2015年度各上市券商年度報(bào)告中選取數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算出2015年的EVA值,然后利用年報(bào)中的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)接下來五年的EVA值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),代入EVA兩階段估值模型中,計(jì)算出2015年末上市券商的企業(yè)價(jià)值和每股價(jià)值,并且與當(dāng)時(shí)各個(gè)上市券商的實(shí)際股價(jià)對(duì)比分析。最后,基于對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果的分析,對(duì)投資者提供相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:In the stock market, securities companies are the most important intermediary between the two sides. In September 1987, China established its first professional securities company, the Shenzhen Special Zone Securities Company, since then. With the rapid development of China's economy, the national disposable wealth has been rapidly accumulated. In the eyes of investors, China's securities market has a specific channel. Investors' existing deposits could be converted into equity, which would help them generate their capitalized income. The general public is increasingly enthusiastic about participation in the securities market. Investors are also looking at the hot securities industry. Therefore, more and more attention has been paid to the analysis of the investment value of the listed companies. So this paper will use the EVA valuation method to analyze the value of some listed securities companies in order to prevent the risk. In end of 2016, there were 129 securities companies in our country. The total assets of these 129 securities companies were 5.79 tillion yuan and the net assets were 1.64 tillion yuan. The net capital is 1.47 tillion yuan, the whole year realizes the operating income three hundred and twenty-seven billion nine hundred and ninety-four million yuan, realizes the net profit one hundred and twenty-three billion four hundred and forty-five million yuan to realize the 124 companies to realize the profit. Through the data we can see. The development of China's securities industry is moving forward with a healthy and stable situation, focusing on company management and risk resistance, and improving profitability and service capacity through the development of business scale. Depending on the development of Chinese economy, there will be a broader development. Firstly, this paper expounds the background and significance of the research on the valuation of listed companies. And briefly summarized the research content and structure of this paper, for the domestic and foreign scholars in the EVA model of a simple review of the research, and do a summary evaluation. Then points out the innovation of this paper and reflects on the shortcomings of this paper. Then, the comparative analysis of the theory of enterprise value evaluation, starting with the meaning of enterprise value evaluation, the value evaluation method is divided into cost method. Income approach and market approach, the various valuation methods are compared and analyzed. Secondly, the applicability of EVA model to the valuation of listed securities companies, including the meaning of EVA valuation method, is discussed. And the advantages and disadvantages of the EVA valuation method, according to the characteristics of the valuation of securities companies and the applicability of the EVA model, finally select the EVA model. This paper carries on the empirical analysis based on the EVA model to the selected listed securities companies, and classifies the EVA model on the basis of the different development stages of the enterprises. Finally, we choose a high-speed development model which is more suitable for securities companies, and introduce the method of model calculation and the items needed in the calculation process in detail. And the relevant accounting subjects have been adjusted. In the annual report of each listed securities companies in 2015 selected the data, calculate the 2015 EVA value, and then use the relevant data in the annual report. The next five years of the EVA value is forecasted, replaced by the EVA two-stage valuation model, calculated in end of 2015 listed securities firm value and value per share. Finally, based on the analysis of empirical results, to provide investors with relevant advice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.39

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本文編號(hào)：1358009