【摘要】：從1998年十五屆三中全會到2012年第十八次全國代表大會召開,歷次黨和國家重要會議均提及城鎮(zhèn)化,并對城鎮(zhèn)化做出重要指示,城鎮(zhèn)化已經(jīng)成為國家全局性發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。至此,中國城鎮(zhèn)化成為社會各界人士,乃至全球各國關(guān)注的焦點。2014年9月,新型城鎮(zhèn)化試點工作座談會在北京召開,國務(wù)院總理李克強在會上強調(diào),當前我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展下行壓力較大,要維持經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)增長,必須充分發(fā)揮城鎮(zhèn)化這一巨大的需求因素,擴大內(nèi)需,拉動投資。并進一步強調(diào),城鎮(zhèn)化作為綜合載體,對于城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)的破解能夠起到行之有效的促進作用。在城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展階段,縱觀政府在其中發(fā)揮的作用,尤其政府公共投資的影響,其結(jié)構(gòu)、規(guī)模及效率對城鎮(zhèn)化的影響成為學(xué)術(shù)界研究的重點,分析城鎮(zhèn)化進程中公共投資問題將具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文從理論上,分析城鎮(zhèn)化進程中,公共投資現(xiàn)狀、存在的問題及對城鎮(zhèn)化的影響因素。從結(jié)構(gòu)、效率及區(qū)域分布等方面分析當前公共投資的現(xiàn)狀,然后指出,公共投資主要存在以下五方面的問題:定位不明確、決策缺乏科學(xué)性、管理模式單一、資金來源單一和效率不足等。并指出,影響城鎮(zhèn)化的公共投資因素主要有:財政預(yù)算及配置比例、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展目標、區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展、農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等。本文實證分析了分行業(yè)公共投資對城鎮(zhèn)化的影響及公共投資與城鎮(zhèn)化之間的動態(tài)協(xié)整關(guān)系。通過建立向量自回歸模型及協(xié)整方程得出,公共投資對城鎮(zhèn)化的長期效益優(yōu)于短期效益,并且非生產(chǎn)性公共投資對城鎮(zhèn)化的促進作用優(yōu)于生產(chǎn)性公共投資對城鎮(zhèn)化的促進作用。本文提出了促進城鎮(zhèn)化健康發(fā)展,優(yōu)化公共投資的政策建議。一是保持適度的公共投資規(guī)模,二是合理調(diào)配公共投資結(jié)構(gòu),三是充分發(fā)揮公共投資效率,四是拓寬公共投資融資渠道,五是科學(xué)選擇城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展模式。
[Abstract]:From the third Plenary session of the 15th CPC Central Committee in 1998 to the 18th National Congress in 2012, urbanization was mentioned in all important meetings of the Party and the state, and important instructions were given to urbanization. Urbanization has become the overall development strategy of the country. At this point, urbanization in China has become the focus of attention of people from all walks of life, and even all over the world. In September 2014, the forum on pilot work on new urbanization was held in Beijing. Premier Li Keqiang stressed at the meeting that at present, China's economic development is under great downward pressure. In order to maintain steady economic growth, we must give full play to the huge demand factor of urbanization, expand domestic demand, and stimulate investment. It is further emphasized that urbanization, as a comprehensive carrier, can play an effective role in promoting the cracking of urban and rural structures. In the stage of rapid development of urbanization, throughout the role played by the government in it, especially the impact of government public investment, its structure, scale and efficiency on urbanization has become the focus of academic research. It will be of great practical significance to analyze the problem of public investment in the process of urbanization. In theory, this paper analyzes the present situation of public investment, the existing problems and the influencing factors on urbanization in the process of urbanization. This paper analyzes the present situation of public investment from the aspects of structure, efficiency and regional distribution, and then points out that there are five main problems in public investment: unclear positioning, lack of scientific decision-making, single management mode, single source of funds and insufficient efficiency, and so on. It is pointed out that the main factors affecting urbanization are financial budget and allocation ratio, economic development goal, regional coordinated development, rural economic development and so on. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of public investment on urbanization and the dynamic co-integration relationship between public investment and urbanization. Through the establishment of vector autoregression model and co-integration equation, it is concluded that the long-term benefit of public investment to urbanization is better than that of short-term benefit, and the promoting effect of unproductive public investment on urbanization is better than that of productive public investment on urbanization. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy development of urbanization and optimize public investment. One is to maintain a moderate scale of public investment, the other is to allocate the structure of public investment reasonably, the third is to give full play to the efficiency of public investment, the fourth is to broaden the financing channels of public investment, and the fifth is to scientifically choose the development mode of urbanization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F283

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