【摘要】：基于動(dòng)態(tài)物質(zhì)流分析方法及時(shí)間序列分析方法,本文以我國(guó)1949-2012年年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,研究了工業(yè)化演進(jìn)過(guò)程中我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出與鋼社會(huì)蓄積之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。研究結(jié)果表明,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程的演進(jìn),鋼以實(shí)物產(chǎn)品的形式不斷蓄積于我國(guó)社會(huì)當(dāng)中,且蓄積的速度不斷加快。我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出與鋼的社會(huì)蓄積之間存在長(zhǎng)期協(xié)整關(guān)系,鋼的社會(huì)蓄積既能在短期內(nèi)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),又影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的長(zhǎng)期整體走勢(shì),而經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出只是鋼社會(huì)蓄積變化的長(zhǎng)期原因。這說(shuō)明我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)高度依賴鋼的使用,而且經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)鋼需求的拉動(dòng)是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的過(guò)程,不會(huì)在短期內(nèi)對(duì)鋼的需求造成顯著影響。
[Abstract]:Based on the method of dynamic material flow analysis and time series analysis, this paper studies the relationship between economic output and steel social accumulation in the process of industrialization evolution using the annual data of China from 1949 to 2012 as samples. The results show that with the development of economy and the evolution of industrialization, steel accumulates in our society in the form of physical products, and the speed of accumulation is accelerating. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between economic output and social accumulation of steel in China. The social accumulation of steel can not only promote economic growth in the short term, but also affect the long-term overall trend of economic output. Economic output is only a long-term reason for the accumulation and change of steel society. This indicates that the economic construction of our country is highly dependent on the use of steel, and the pulling of economic growth to steel demand is a long-term process and will not have a significant impact on steel demand in the short term.
【作者單位】： 哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71273074)
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124;F426.31
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本文編號(hào)：2299764