【摘要】：構(gòu)建一個(gè)存在兩個(gè)交通樞紐城市的城際物流模型,提出以相對(duì)人口規(guī)模系數(shù)來(lái)衡量城市間的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)模,并由此導(dǎo)出流經(jīng)樞紐城市的城際物流量方程,用以預(yù)測(cè)隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)由中心城市向外圍城市轉(zhuǎn)移的進(jìn)程中,產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移路徑對(duì)流經(jīng)樞紐城市物流增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)期影響,從理論上總結(jié)了三種不同產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移路徑下,流經(jīng)樞紐城市的城際物流量的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。結(jié)合最近十年京津冀、長(zhǎng)三角和珠三角三大城市群內(nèi)的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移路徑和物流發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù),以北上廣三個(gè)重要樞紐城市為例,對(duì)理論模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)踐檢驗(yàn)。文章主要結(jié)論包括:(1)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移路徑對(duì)交通樞紐城市的物流增長(zhǎng)有長(zhǎng)期影響,且城市人口規(guī)模越大,城際物流增長(zhǎng)越穩(wěn)定;(2)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的路徑不同,流經(jīng)樞紐城市的城際物流需求增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)也各不相同;(3)因產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移路徑不同,北京市的交通樞紐地位將面臨衰退,上海市的樞紐地位穩(wěn)定,而廣州市的樞紐地位還將繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)。
[Abstract]:In this paper, an inter-city logistics model with two transportation hubs is constructed, and the industrial transfer scale between cities is measured by the relative population scale coefficient, and the equation of inter-city logistics flow through the hub city is derived. In order to predict the long-term influence of industrial transfer path on logistics growth in hub cities with the process of industry transfer from central city to peripheral city, the paper summarizes three different industrial transfer paths theoretically. The long-term growth trend of intercity material flow through hub cities. Based on the data of industrial transfer and logistics development in the three urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta in the last ten years, three important hub cities in the north of Shangguang are taken as examples, and the theoretical model is tested in practice. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the industrial transfer path has a long-term impact on the logistics growth of transportation hub cities, and the larger the urban population, the more stable the inter-city logistics growth; (2) the different paths of industrial transfer. The growth trend of intercity logistics demand is also different; (3) due to the different industrial transfer path, Beijing's transportation hub status will face recession, Shanghai's hub position will be stable, and Guangzhou's hub position will continue to strengthen.
【作者單位】： 廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);
【基金】：廣東省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(S2013040016119)
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F259.27

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