發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-25 13:37

【摘要】：新疆的就業(yè)問題是個(gè)復(fù)雜的問題,一直以來備受社會(huì)關(guān)注,很多學(xué)者也針對(duì)新疆的就業(yè)問題做過很多的研究,可就業(yè)問題依然沒有得到徹底的解決。再加上新疆現(xiàn)在處于經(jīng)濟(jì)體制加劇變革、社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷變動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻,勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)存在較多的勞動(dòng)力但參與勞動(dòng)的人員較少,導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中存在過剩的勞動(dòng)力,這樣帶來的就業(yè)壓力更大,勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的供需情況日益突出,甚至還會(huì)引發(fā)一系列的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。本文主要采用2002年、2007年和2012年新疆投入產(chǎn)出表及新疆各年的統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒的數(shù)據(jù),定性與定量分析相結(jié)合,基于投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)分析理論,運(yùn)用投入產(chǎn)出主要系數(shù)感應(yīng)力系數(shù)、影響力系數(shù)、前后向關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)、綜合就業(yè)系數(shù)、變異系數(shù)等重要指標(biāo),再結(jié)合新疆的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)分析,識(shí)別出新疆吸納就業(yè)能力較強(qiáng)的行業(yè),在新疆未來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中重點(diǎn)發(fā)展被識(shí)別出的行業(yè)對(duì)有效解決就業(yè)問題具有重要意義,之后又構(gòu)建了(SDA)結(jié)構(gòu)分解技術(shù)模型,對(duì)影響就業(yè)水平變動(dòng)的因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)最終消費(fèi)、政府消費(fèi)、居民消費(fèi)、投資消費(fèi)這四個(gè)因素對(duì)就業(yè)人數(shù)增加時(shí)起著拉動(dòng)作用,而技術(shù)進(jìn)步與勞動(dòng)力投入系數(shù)大體上對(duì)就業(yè)具有阻礙作用。對(duì)新疆就業(yè)問題的原因分析中發(fā)現(xiàn),與經(jīng)濟(jì)較發(fā)達(dá)省份對(duì)比,發(fā)現(xiàn)新疆的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)均落后于其他經(jīng)濟(jì)較發(fā)達(dá)省份,且新疆的勞動(dòng)力受教育結(jié)構(gòu)不合理。進(jìn)一步分析中又發(fā)現(xiàn)真正影響新疆就業(yè)的原因是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理與勞動(dòng)力供過于求且勞動(dòng)力受教育程度偏低,文章最后結(jié)合文中所分析出的重要原因,給出了相應(yīng)的就業(yè)政策建議。本文研究的主要方法:首先,分析了新疆產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀,運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)偏離度系數(shù)、就業(yè)彈性及比較勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率等重要指標(biāo)分析出了新疆產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,經(jīng)濟(jì)效益低。其次,基于投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)分析法,在列昂惕夫逆矩陣基礎(chǔ)上,引入勞動(dòng)力投入系數(shù),構(gòu)建就業(yè)乘數(shù)矩陣,通過該矩陣測(cè)算分析和統(tǒng)計(jì),得到各行業(yè)的直接和綜合就業(yè)效應(yīng)。然后,將投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)分析法與(SDA)模型相結(jié)合,測(cè)算出就業(yè)水平隨著各因素在不同時(shí)期因結(jié)構(gòu)變化而產(chǎn)生的影響程度,探討真正影響就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的原因,最后,用線性回歸分析方法對(duì)影響就業(yè)水平的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)量化進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)與前文的原因分析一致。
[Abstract]:The employment problem in Xinjiang is a complex problem, which has been paid close attention to by the society all the time. Many scholars have also done a lot of research on the employment problem in Xinjiang, but the employment problem has still not been solved thoroughly. In addition, Xinjiang is now at a critical moment when the economic system is intensifying and the social structure is constantly changing. There are more labor forces in the labor market but fewer people are involved in the labor force, resulting in a surplus of labor force in the labor market. This will bring greater pressure on employment, the increasingly prominent supply and demand situation in the labor market, and even a series of social and economic problems. This paper mainly adopts the data of Xinjiang input-output table in 2002, 2007 and 2012, and the statistical yearbooks of Xinjiang in each year, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, based on the input-output technical analysis theory, using the inductive force coefficient of the main input-output coefficient. Influence coefficient, forward and backward correlation coefficient, comprehensive employment coefficient, variation coefficient and other important indicators, combined with Xinjiang's employment structure and industrial structure change development trend analysis, identified Xinjiang's strong employability industries. In the future economic development of Xinjiang, the identified industries are of great significance to solve the employment problem effectively. Then, the (SDA) structural decomposition technology model is constructed, and the factors affecting the change of employment level are analyzed empirically. It is found that the final consumption, the government consumption, the resident consumption and the investment consumption play a pulling role in the increase of the number of employed people, while the technological progress and the labor force input coefficient generally hinder the employment. By analyzing the causes of employment in Xinjiang, it is found that compared with the more developed provinces, the industrial structure and employment structure of Xinjiang lag behind those of other economically more developed provinces, and the education structure of the labor force in Xinjiang is unreasonable. In the further analysis, it is found that the real reasons that affect the employment in Xinjiang are the unreasonable industrial structure, the oversupply of labor force and the low level of education of the labor force. The corresponding employment policy suggestions are given. The main methods of this paper are as follows: firstly, the present situation of Xinjiang's industrial structure and employment structure is analyzed, and the irrational industrial structure is analyzed by using the structural deviation coefficient, employment elasticity and comparative labor productivity. The economic benefit is low. Secondly, based on the input-output technique analysis method, the employment multiplier matrix is constructed by introducing the labor input coefficient on the basis of the Leontiff inverse matrix, and the direct and comprehensive employment effects of various industries are obtained through the calculation, analysis and statistics of the matrix. Then, combining the input-output technology analysis method with the (SDA) model, the author calculates the degree of influence of the employment level with the structural changes in different periods, and probes into the causes of the real influence on the employment structure. The quantitative analysis of the economic indexes affecting the employment level is carried out by using the method of linear regression analysis, and it is found that the analysis is consistent with the previous analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F249.27

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本文編號(hào)：2143989