本文選題：碳交易 + 清潔　； 參考：《成都理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：人類活動(dòng)排放的溫室氣體導(dǎo)致全球氣候變暖,海平面上升,影響人類的生存與發(fā)展,世界各國(guó)開始意識(shí)到減少溫室氣體排放的重要性�！毒┒甲h定書》的生效,標(biāo)志著國(guó)際社會(huì)開始以法律手段來限制溫室氣體的排放,其中采取的重要交易機(jī)制之一就是碳排放交易。《京都議定書》規(guī)定了三種靈活履約方式:清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制(CDM)、聯(lián)合實(shí)施機(jī)制(JI)、國(guó)際排放權(quán)交易體系(IET)。我國(guó)目前只有CDM一種交易機(jī)制。CDM雖為發(fā)展中國(guó)家?guī)砹丝捎^的碳減排收益,但由于宏觀環(huán)境和CDM自身的特性,在CDM項(xiàng)目投資過程中,存在很多不確定因素,影響項(xiàng)目收益。提高CDM風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平,是研究的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。本文以風(fēng)電、水電、森林碳匯、HFC-23分解等四種CDM項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象,借助蒙特卡洛模擬法、概率統(tǒng)計(jì)、現(xiàn)代投資理論等方法與理論,綜合運(yùn)用定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法解決分散CDM投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的問題。首先,對(duì)問題產(chǎn)生的背景、相關(guān)理論、研究現(xiàn)狀做詳細(xì)介紹,對(duì)我國(guó)CDM市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,并總結(jié)存在的問題。其次,識(shí)別CDM風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類型,構(gòu)建評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),利用蒙特卡洛模擬法仿真凈現(xiàn)值率,并統(tǒng)計(jì)仿真結(jié)果的概率分布和累積概率來評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。借鑒現(xiàn)代投資組合理論的思想,提出利用投資組合的方法來分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。以均值-方差模型為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合CDM自身特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了CDM項(xiàng)目投資組合模型,遴選出最優(yōu)投資組合。最后,結(jié)合本文研究結(jié)果,提出針對(duì)CDM項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略。本文取得的進(jìn)步是:(1)本文在對(duì)CDM的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行充分識(shí)別后,以指標(biāo)變量表征風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,達(dá)到量化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的目的。針對(duì)四類CDM項(xiàng)目面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素不同,為四類CDM項(xiàng)目分別創(chuàng)建了不同的NPV計(jì)算公式,其中包含的變量不同,即體現(xiàn)了不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)不同項(xiàng)目的影響。(2)本文提出投資組合這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散策略,并以現(xiàn)代投資理論作指導(dǎo),將用于證券投資領(lǐng)域的均值-方差模型與我國(guó)CDM實(shí)際情況相結(jié)合,構(gòu)建了CDM項(xiàng)目投資組合優(yōu)化模型,以單位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益最大化的思路甄選出最優(yōu)投資比例,并且考察了成本、CER單價(jià)在不同變動(dòng)下對(duì)投資組合的影響,為投資者提供更全面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響認(rèn)識(shí),對(duì)CDM項(xiàng)目的投資決策具有一定指導(dǎo)作用。隨后提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略,不僅避免了定性研究的紙上談兵,而且結(jié)合了定量研究和定性研究的長(zhǎng)處,更有針對(duì)性和說服力。
[Abstract]:The greenhouse gases emitted by human activities cause global warming and sea level rise, which affect the survival and development of mankind. The countries of the world are beginning to realize the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, Marking the start of a legal effort by the international community to limit greenhouse gas emissions, One of the important trading mechanisms is carbon emissions trading. The Kyoto Protocol provides for three flexible implementation modes: the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the Joint implementation Mechanism (JI), and the International emissions Trading system (IET). At present, there is only one transaction mechanism of CDM in China. Although CDM has brought considerable carbon emission reduction benefits to developing countries, because of the macro environment and the characteristics of CDM itself, there are many uncertain factors in the process of CDM project investment, which affect the project income. It is urgent to improve the level of CDM risk management. In this paper, four CDM projects, wind power, hydropower, forest carbon sequestration and HFC-23 decomposition, are taken as research objects, and Monte Carlo simulation method, probability statistics, modern investment theory and other methods and theories are used. The method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is used to solve the problem of dispersing CDM investment risk. First of all, the background of the problem, related theory, research status quo is introduced in detail, the development of CDM market in China is analyzed, and the existing problems are summarized. Secondly, the CDM risk type is identified, the evaluation index is constructed, the net present value rate is simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method, and the probability distribution and cumulative probability of simulation results are calculated to evaluate the risk. Using the modern portfolio theory for reference, this paper puts forward the method of using portfolio to disperse risk. Based on the mean-variance model and the characteristics of CDM, the portfolio model of CDM project is constructed and the optimal portfolio is selected. Finally, according to the results of this paper, the risk management strategy for CDM projects is proposed. The progress of this paper is: (1) after fully recognizing the risk of CDM, the risk factors are represented by the index variable to achieve the purpose of quantifying the risk. In view of the different risk factors faced by the four types of CDM projects, different NPV calculation formulas are created for the four types of CDM projects, which contain different variables. That is to say, it reflects the influence of different risk factors on different projects. (2) this paper puts forward the risk dispersion strategy of portfolio. Under the guidance of modern investment theory, the mean-variance model used in the field of securities investment is combined with the actual situation of CDM in China. In this paper, a portfolio optimization model of CDM project is constructed, and the optimal investment ratio is selected according to the idea of maximizing the return per unit risk, and the influence of cost and CER unit price on portfolio is investigated. To provide investors with a more comprehensive understanding of risk impact, CDM project investment decisions have a certain guiding role. Then the paper puts forward the risk coping strategy, which not only avoids the paper talk of qualitative research, but also combines the advantages of quantitative and qualitative research, and has more pertinence and persuasion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F283

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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本文編號(hào)：2029623