本文選題：城市體系 + Zipf��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：為解決中國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程中出現(xiàn)的種種問(wèn)題,走有中國(guó)特色的、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的城市化道路,中共中央國(guó)務(wù)院于2014年印發(fā)《國(guó)家新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃(2014—2020年)》,提出走大中小城市同小城鎮(zhèn)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,互相促進(jìn)、共同發(fā)展的新型城鎮(zhèn)化道路。其中,城鎮(zhèn)化格局更加優(yōu)化是一項(xiàng)重要目標(biāo)。隨著城市化、工業(yè)化飛躍發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)迅速轉(zhuǎn)型,伴生出能源資源短缺、交通擁堵、環(huán)境惡化、社會(huì)矛盾突出等一系列問(wèn)題,實(shí)現(xiàn)大中小城市和小城鎮(zhèn)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展重要性也日益凸顯。城市體系是一個(gè)有機(jī)系統(tǒng),大、中、小城市各自在城市體系中占據(jù)自己的位置,發(fā)揮自己的作用,相互補(bǔ)充,缺一不可。研究大、中、小城市的規(guī)模結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題,探索適合中國(guó)國(guó)情的規(guī)模體系,具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。在以往的研究中,學(xué)者們基于位序—規(guī)模法則、城市首位律以及城市金字塔等研究方法,對(duì)中國(guó)、各經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)或者各省的城市規(guī)模分布進(jìn)行了研究,但是從三個(gè)層面進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究的文獻(xiàn)不多,且在人口規(guī)模指標(biāo)的選取上,多選取市轄區(qū)非農(nóng)業(yè)人口,沒有進(jìn)行多種人口統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑的對(duì)比分析。本文選取了市轄區(qū)年末總?cè)丝?市轄區(qū)非農(nóng)業(yè)人口以及市轄區(qū)年平均人口,三種人口統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑,進(jìn)行了全國(guó)、三大區(qū)域、各省三大層面的系統(tǒng)分析。首先通過(guò)分析城市規(guī)模分布金字塔特征、首位度特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)的城市規(guī)模分布存在全國(guó)層面小城市缺失、東西部呈現(xiàn)倒金字塔分布、中部呈現(xiàn)梭型分布以及西部大城市擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)弱等問(wèn)題;其次基于Zipf法則進(jìn)行了三個(gè)層面Zipf指數(shù)的測(cè)算,并用多種回歸方法檢驗(yàn)了Zipf指數(shù)對(duì)GDP以及人均GDP的影響,結(jié)果表明,Zipf指數(shù)值的確對(duì)GDP或人均GDP有顯著影響,說(shuō)明可以通過(guò)對(duì)城市規(guī)模分布的調(diào)整來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,但并沒有得到在q=1時(shí),GDP或人均GDP達(dá)到最優(yōu);再次利用面板回歸模型對(duì)Zipf指數(shù)的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明交通密度與外商直接投資與Zipf指數(shù)負(fù)相關(guān),而工業(yè)化水平與市場(chǎng)化程度與Zipf指數(shù)正相關(guān);最后基于影響因素的分析結(jié)果,針對(duì)全國(guó)、三大區(qū)域具體情況提出改進(jìn)建議,使其城市規(guī)模分布更加合理。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problems in the process of urbanization in China, we should follow the road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics and sustainable development. In 2014, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020", proposing a new urbanization road of coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns, mutual promotion and common development. Among them, the pattern of urbanization is more optimized is an important goal. With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the rapid economic and social transformation, accompanied by a series of problems, such as shortage of energy resources, traffic congestion, deterioration of the environment, prominent social contradictions, etc. It is also increasingly important to realize the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns. Urban system is an organic system, large, medium and small cities each occupy their own position in the urban system, play their role, complement each other, indispensable. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the scale structure of large, medium and small cities and to explore the scale system suitable for China's national conditions. In previous studies, scholars have studied the distribution of urban scale in China, economic zones or provinces based on the law of location-scale, the law of urban primacy and urban pyramids. However, there are few literatures on the three levels of systematic research, and in the selection of population scale indicators, the non-agricultural population in the municipal area is mostly selected, and there is no comparative analysis of various demographic caliber. This paper selects the total population at the end of the year, the non-agricultural population in the municipal district and the average annual population in the municipal district, and carries out a systematic analysis of the whole country, the three regions and the provinces at three levels. Firstly, by analyzing the pyramid characteristics and the first degree characteristics of urban scale distribution, it is found that the urban scale distribution in our country is missing at the national level, and the eastern and western areas present the inverted pyramid distribution. In the middle, the distribution of shuttle type and the weak diffusion effect in western big cities are discussed. Secondly, the Zipf index of three layers is calculated based on the Zipf rule, and the influence of Zipf index on GDP and GDP per capita is tested by multiple regression methods. The results show that the Zipf index value does have a significant effect on GDP or GDP per capita, indicating that economic development can be achieved through the adjustment of urban size distribution, but not the optimal GDP or per capita GDP at Q = 1; Thirdly, the panel regression model is used to analyze the influencing factors of Zipf index. The results show that the traffic density is negatively correlated with FDI and Zipf index, while the level of industrialization and the degree of marketization are positively correlated with Zipf index. Finally, based on the analysis results of influencing factors, some suggestions are put forward to make the distribution of urban scale more reasonable in the light of the specific conditions of the whole country and the three major regions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F299.2

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