本文選題：BOT + 提前終止�。� 參考：《大連理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：BOT模式因其能夠有效緩解政府財政壓力、提高項目運作效率,自提出以來就受到了世界各國的廣泛關注。然而,由于BOT項目還具有投資大、特許運營期長、風險高等特點,加之目前尚缺乏完善的理論指導與實踐經驗,項目提前終止現象頻繁發(fā)生,已引起了理論界與實務界的重視。BOT項目面臨提前終止時,終止補償的確定是擺在政府和項目公司面前至關重要的問題。確定科學合理的補償額能夠有效避免政企雙方的爭端,提升政府回購項目的效率,并保證雙方獲得盡可能多的經濟利益或盡量避免損失。本文對BOT項目提前終止補償的研究正是在此背景下展開的。首先,對國內外相關文獻進行整理綜述。這部分總結了項目提前終止的影響因素及責任分擔,并對現有的BOT項目提前終止補償研究的進展進行了總結。同時對資本資產定價模型進行了概述,介紹了模型的概念與使用條件,論證了CAPM模型對于解決BOT項目提前終止問題的適用性。其次,分析了現有以NPV方法確定提前終止補償的不足,主要有貼現率確定不合理、剩余特許期內累計凈現值分配缺乏科學依據等。針對其弊端,構建了基于CAPM的提前終止補償決策模型。為了更為精準的確定剩余特許期內的累計凈現值,本研究結合CAPM和WACC理念確立了合理的貼現率,并采用時間序列法為預測交通量提供了新的思路。同時,引入CAPM模型中風險補償收益率的概念,提出對于運營狀態(tài)良好的BOT項目,終止補償應考慮初始投資和風險補償收益兩個部分。即政府在確定終止補償時,首先保證投資者收回全部初始投資,而凈收益部分政府給予項目公司的補償應該為尚未收回的風險補償收益部分。本文基于此構建BOT項目提前終止補償模型。此外,論文也對模型參數的確定進行了具體分析討論。最后,運用一個算例對模型進行了驗證。在算例中,運用本研究構建的CAPM模型和交通量預測方法,結合算例數據,求解出BOT項目提前終止時,政府應給予項目公司的補償,從而對模型的可操作性和適用性進行了論證。
[Abstract]:Because of its ability to relieve the government financial pressure and improve the efficiency of project operation, BOT model has been paid more and more attention all over the world since it was put forward. However, due to the characteristics of large investment, long franchise period, high risk and lack of perfect theoretical guidance and practical experience, the early termination of BOT project occurs frequently. It has aroused the attention of the theoretical and practical circles. When the bot project is terminated in advance, the determination of termination compensation is a crucial issue in front of the government and the project company. Scientific and reasonable compensation can effectively avoid disputes between government and enterprises, improve the efficiency of government repurchase projects, and ensure that both sides obtain as much economic benefits as possible or avoid losses as far as possible. In this paper, the BOT project early termination compensation research is carried out under this background. First of all, the relevant literature at home and abroad are summarized. This part summarizes the influence factors and responsibility sharing of the early termination of the project, and summarizes the progress of the research on the compensation for the early termination of the existing BOT project. At the same time, the paper summarizes the capital asset pricing model, introduces the concept and application conditions of the model, and demonstrates the applicability of the CAPM model in solving the problem of early termination of the BOT project. Secondly, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the existing NPV method in determining the compensation for early termination. The main reasons are the unreasonable determination of the discount rate and the lack of scientific basis for the distribution of cumulative net present value in the remaining concession period. In view of its disadvantages, a decision model of early termination compensation based on CAPM is constructed. In order to determine the cumulative net present value (NPV) of the remaining concession period more accurately, this study established a reasonable discount rate based on the concepts of CAPM and WACC, and used the time series method to provide a new way to predict traffic volume. At the same time, by introducing the concept of risk compensation return in CAPM model, it is proposed that the initial investment and risk compensation return should be taken into account in the termination of compensation for BOT projects in good operation state. That is, when the government determines the termination of compensation, it first guarantees that the investor will recover all the initial investment, while the net income part of the government's compensation to the project company should be part of the risk compensation income that has not yet been recovered. Based on this, this paper constructs the compensation model of BOT project termination ahead of schedule. In addition, the determination of model parameters is analyzed and discussed in detail. Finally, an example is used to verify the model. In the example, the CAPM model and traffic volume prediction method are used to solve the compensation of the project company when the BOT project terminates ahead of schedule, so the maneuverability and applicability of the model are proved.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F283

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相關期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1889096