本文選題：BOT + 提前終止�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：BOT模式因其能夠有效緩解政府財(cái)政壓力、提高項(xiàng)目運(yùn)作效率,自提出以來就受到了世界各國的廣泛關(guān)注。然而,由于BOT項(xiàng)目還具有投資大、特許運(yùn)營期長、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高等特點(diǎn),加之目前尚缺乏完善的理論指導(dǎo)與實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),項(xiàng)目提前終止現(xiàn)象頻繁發(fā)生,已引起了理論界與實(shí)務(wù)界的重視。BOT項(xiàng)目面臨提前終止時(shí),終止補(bǔ)償?shù)拇_定是擺在政府和項(xiàng)目公司面前至關(guān)重要的問題。確定科學(xué)合理的補(bǔ)償額能夠有效避免政企雙方的爭端,提升政府回購項(xiàng)目的效率,并保證雙方獲得盡可能多的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益或盡量避免損失。本文對BOT項(xiàng)目提前終止補(bǔ)償?shù)难芯空窃诖吮尘跋抡归_的。首先,對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理綜述。這部分總結(jié)了項(xiàng)目提前終止的影響因素及責(zé)任分擔(dān),并對現(xiàn)有的BOT項(xiàng)目提前終止補(bǔ)償研究的進(jìn)展進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。同時(shí)對資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型進(jìn)行了概述,介紹了模型的概念與使用條件,論證了CAPM模型對于解決BOT項(xiàng)目提前終止問題的適用性。其次,分析了現(xiàn)有以NPV方法確定提前終止補(bǔ)償?shù)牟蛔?主要有貼現(xiàn)率確定不合理、剩余特許期內(nèi)累計(jì)凈現(xiàn)值分配缺乏科學(xué)依據(jù)等。針對其弊端,構(gòu)建了基于CAPM的提前終止補(bǔ)償決策模型。為了更為精準(zhǔn)的確定剩余特許期內(nèi)的累計(jì)凈現(xiàn)值,本研究結(jié)合CAPM和WACC理念確立了合理的貼現(xiàn)率,并采用時(shí)間序列法為預(yù)測交通量提供了新的思路。同時(shí),引入CAPM模型中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償收益率的概念,提出對于運(yùn)營狀態(tài)良好的BOT項(xiàng)目,終止補(bǔ)償應(yīng)考慮初始投資和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償收益兩個(gè)部分。即政府在確定終止補(bǔ)償時(shí),首先保證投資者收回全部初始投資,而凈收益部分政府給予項(xiàng)目公司的補(bǔ)償應(yīng)該為尚未收回的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償收益部分。本文基于此構(gòu)建BOT項(xiàng)目提前終止補(bǔ)償模型。此外,論文也對模型參數(shù)的確定進(jìn)行了具體分析討論。最后,運(yùn)用一個(gè)算例對模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。在算例中,運(yùn)用本研究構(gòu)建的CAPM模型和交通量預(yù)測方法,結(jié)合算例數(shù)據(jù),求解出BOT項(xiàng)目提前終止時(shí),政府應(yīng)給予項(xiàng)目公司的補(bǔ)償,從而對模型的可操作性和適用性進(jìn)行了論證。
[Abstract]:Because of its ability to relieve the government financial pressure and improve the efficiency of project operation, BOT model has been paid more and more attention all over the world since it was put forward. However, due to the characteristics of large investment, long franchise period, high risk and lack of perfect theoretical guidance and practical experience, the early termination of BOT project occurs frequently. It has aroused the attention of the theoretical and practical circles. When the bot project is terminated in advance, the determination of termination compensation is a crucial issue in front of the government and the project company. Scientific and reasonable compensation can effectively avoid disputes between government and enterprises, improve the efficiency of government repurchase projects, and ensure that both sides obtain as much economic benefits as possible or avoid losses as far as possible. In this paper, the BOT project early termination compensation research is carried out under this background. First of all, the relevant literature at home and abroad are summarized. This part summarizes the influence factors and responsibility sharing of the early termination of the project, and summarizes the progress of the research on the compensation for the early termination of the existing BOT project. At the same time, the paper summarizes the capital asset pricing model, introduces the concept and application conditions of the model, and demonstrates the applicability of the CAPM model in solving the problem of early termination of the BOT project. Secondly, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the existing NPV method in determining the compensation for early termination. The main reasons are the unreasonable determination of the discount rate and the lack of scientific basis for the distribution of cumulative net present value in the remaining concession period. In view of its disadvantages, a decision model of early termination compensation based on CAPM is constructed. In order to determine the cumulative net present value (NPV) of the remaining concession period more accurately, this study established a reasonable discount rate based on the concepts of CAPM and WACC, and used the time series method to provide a new way to predict traffic volume. At the same time, by introducing the concept of risk compensation return in CAPM model, it is proposed that the initial investment and risk compensation return should be taken into account in the termination of compensation for BOT projects in good operation state. That is, when the government determines the termination of compensation, it first guarantees that the investor will recover all the initial investment, while the net income part of the government's compensation to the project company should be part of the risk compensation income that has not yet been recovered. Based on this, this paper constructs the compensation model of BOT project termination ahead of schedule. In addition, the determination of model parameters is analyzed and discussed in detail. Finally, an example is used to verify the model. In the example, the CAPM model and traffic volume prediction method are used to solve the compensation of the project company when the BOT project terminates ahead of schedule, so the maneuverability and applicability of the model are proved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F283

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1889096