本文選題：最終需求 + 預(yù)測方法��； 參考：《燕山大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：最終需求是投入產(chǎn)出表的基本組成部分,包括最終消費、資本形成和凈出口,是拉動經(jīng)濟增長的“三駕馬車”。對最終需求進行預(yù)測是利用投入產(chǎn)出表進行經(jīng)濟預(yù)測分析的基礎(chǔ)。近年來,基于投入產(chǎn)出表的經(jīng)濟預(yù)測研究在增多,但是,把各項最終需求作為一個整體進行預(yù)測,在預(yù)測學(xué)界和投入產(chǎn)出分析學(xué)界還沒有系統(tǒng)研究。本文首先討論了目前五種常用經(jīng)濟預(yù)測方法的特性,提出綜合運用這些方法進行最終需求預(yù)測的思想;然后基于我國的投入產(chǎn)出表部門分類結(jié)構(gòu),提出由總到分的預(yù)測模式,討論了三部門、六部門和十七部門的最終需求預(yù)測方法。首先,對最終消費進行預(yù)測分析:把最終消費分為農(nóng)村居民消費、城鎮(zhèn)居民消費和政府消費三項,先設(shè)計各項消費總額的預(yù)測方法,然后根據(jù)歷年投入產(chǎn)出表,對我國分部門的三項消費結(jié)構(gòu)變動趨勢進行分析,再結(jié)合總量和部門結(jié)構(gòu)對最終消費做出分結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)測。其次,對資本形成進行預(yù)測分析:把資本形成分為固定資本形成和存貨增加兩項,先設(shè)計固定資本形成總額和存貨增加總額的預(yù)測方法,然后根據(jù)分部門的結(jié)構(gòu)變動特點預(yù)測出資本形成的分部門結(jié)構(gòu)。最后,對進出口進行預(yù)測分析:先分別設(shè)計進口總額和出口總額的預(yù)測方法,然后對分部門的進、出口結(jié)構(gòu)進行分析,按結(jié)構(gòu)比例把進、出口總額分配給各個部門。在其他學(xué)者對最終需求的研究中,大多只考慮總量,本文把最終需求作為一個整體,對最終需求的產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行研究具有重要的理論和應(yīng)用意義。
[Abstract]:Final demand is an essential part of the input-output table, including final consumption, capital formation and net exports, and is the "troika" that drives economic growth. Forecasting the final demand is the basis of the economic forecast analysis by using the input-output table. In recent years, the research of economic forecast based on input-output table is increasing, but there is no systematic research on forecasting and input-output analysis in the field of forecasting and input-output analysis. This paper first discusses the characteristics of five commonly used economic forecasting methods, and puts forward the idea of using these methods to forecast final demand comprehensively, and then, based on the sectoral classification structure of input-output table in our country, puts forward a forecast model from total to total. The final demand forecasting methods of three sectors, six sectors and seventeen sectors are discussed. First of all, the final consumption is forecasted and analyzed: the final consumption is divided into three categories: rural resident consumption, urban resident consumption and government consumption. First, the forecast method of total consumption is designed, and then according to the input-output table over the years, This paper analyzes the trend of three consumption structure changes in China's subsectors, and then forecasts the final consumption structure by combining the total amount and the sector structure. Secondly, the forecast analysis of capital formation: the capital formation is divided into fixed capital formation and inventory increase, and the forecasting method of total fixed capital formation and total inventory increase is designed first. Then the subsector structure of capital formation is predicted according to the structural change characteristics of the subsector. Finally, the forecast analysis of import and export is carried out: first, the forecasting methods of total import and export amount are designed respectively, then the structure of import and export of sub-departments is analyzed, and the import and export amount is allocated to each department according to the structure ratio. In other scholars' research on the final demand, most of them only consider the total amount. This paper regards the final demand as a whole, and it has important theoretical and practical significance to study the final demand's product industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F223;F124

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