本文選題：城市用地演變 + 案例推理�。� 參考：《河南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程不斷加快,并存在城市用地過度擴(kuò)張、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施重復(fù)建設(shè)、空間開發(fā)布局無序等問題。為了使我國國土空間資源得到充分利用,使各生產(chǎn)要素能夠在城市群、省域乃至更大范圍的區(qū)域?qū)用婕s高效地流通分配,國家日益重視區(qū)域土地利用規(guī)劃,不斷加強(qiáng)對全國及省域土地利用規(guī)劃的編制工作,不斷加快對區(qū)域規(guī)劃法及相關(guān)法律體系的構(gòu)建,以促進(jìn)我國區(qū)域政策的科學(xué)化與規(guī)范化,強(qiáng)化區(qū)域規(guī)劃對我國發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略指導(dǎo)作用。為滿足區(qū)域土地利用規(guī)劃編制需求,我國學(xué)者對區(qū)域?qū)用娴某鞘杏玫匮葑冋归_研究。按照我國城鄉(xiāng)一體化土地分類系統(tǒng)對土地的分類方法[1](劃分為農(nóng)用地、建設(shè)用地、未利用地三類),城市用地是指市域范圍內(nèi)的建設(shè)用地。目前國內(nèi)外對城市用地演變的研究大多以單個城市為主,主要關(guān)注單個城市內(nèi)部的城市用地演變機(jī)制,通過構(gòu)建一組統(tǒng)一的用地轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則來模擬單個城市內(nèi)的城市用地演變。而區(qū)域內(nèi)部因自然資源稟賦、經(jīng)濟(jì)人口本底和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施要素等差別迥異,各個城市的用地演變驅(qū)動因子和轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則呈現(xiàn)顯著的空間差異特征。因此針對區(qū)域?qū)哟蔚某鞘杏玫匮葑兎治鰰r,須重視區(qū)域內(nèi)部各個城市的城市用地演變規(guī)則的空間差異。這就需要對傳統(tǒng)的城市用地演變模擬方法進(jìn)行改進(jìn),以提高區(qū)域?qū)用娉鞘杏玫乜臻g格局模擬的精度。本文研究適用于區(qū)域城市用地演變研究的地理模擬模型,對于模擬大區(qū)域城市演變、制定區(qū)域土地利用規(guī)劃等具有重要的理論意義和應(yīng)用價值。本文針對傳統(tǒng)元胞自動機(jī)(Cellular Automaton簡稱CA)在區(qū)域城市用地模擬中的局限,提出基于案例推理的元胞自動機(jī)模型,并以湖南省為研究區(qū)對模型的模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)�；诎咐评淼脑詣訖C(jī)模型(CBR-CA)是將案例推理法(Case-Based Reasoning簡稱CBR)與元胞自動機(jī)相結(jié)合的一種改進(jìn)CA模型。主要研究內(nèi)容包括:1、將模擬單元內(nèi)的土地類型、特征屬性以及空間關(guān)系等影響用地轉(zhuǎn)化的因素以地理案例的形式進(jìn)行組織與描述;2、在全省范圍內(nèi)采樣構(gòu)建案例庫,通過案例庫中收集的案例深入挖掘?qū)W習(xí)區(qū)域內(nèi)不同區(qū)位的城市用地轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)律并以此指導(dǎo)模型對待測案例的用地狀態(tài)預(yù)測;3、將案例推理方法分析得出的城市用地演變模擬結(jié)果引入CA中,最終通過CA迭代來模擬未來城市用地的空間格局。4、以湖南省作為研究區(qū)域,研究湖南省城市用地演變規(guī)則在空間上的分異規(guī)律,運(yùn)用基于案例推理的CA模型對湖南省1990年到2010年間的城市用地演變進(jìn)行模擬。5、對CBR-CA模型的模擬精度進(jìn)行評價,將模擬結(jié)果與傳統(tǒng)CA模型對湖南省城市用地的模擬結(jié)果作對比,以驗(yàn)證CBR-CA模型對于區(qū)域城市用地演變模擬的適用性。本文通過分析、討論得到以下主要結(jié)論:(1)采用基于CBR-CA模型對區(qū)域?qū)用娉鞘杏玫匮葑冞M(jìn)行模擬是合理的。傳統(tǒng)的CA模型通過構(gòu)建具體的轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)則模擬城市用地的演變,而CBR-CA模型將區(qū)域城市用地演變規(guī)律以地理案例的形式表現(xiàn)出來,以案例為載體可以隱含的表達(dá)區(qū)域內(nèi)部用地演變規(guī)律的空間差異,且免去了構(gòu)造繁瑣復(fù)雜的用地轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)則的工作;此外,相比傳統(tǒng)的CA模型,CBR-CA模型能夠?qū)⒌乩韱卧姆轿�、空間距離和用地類型拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)等影響城市用地演變的空間關(guān)系應(yīng)用于用地演變的模擬,從而更加全面深入地表達(dá)、提煉城市用地演變規(guī)律,更真實(shí)地模擬城市用地演變這一復(fù)雜地理現(xiàn)象的發(fā)展機(jī)制。(2)湖南省內(nèi)不同地區(qū)影響城市用地演變的驅(qū)動因子不同,用地轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)律空間差異明顯,但各驅(qū)動因子與城市演變的相關(guān)系數(shù)存在一定的空間分異規(guī)律。對城市用地演變規(guī)律的空間差異特征進(jìn)行研究有助于指導(dǎo)CBR-CA模型合理科學(xué)的采樣構(gòu)建案例庫,也有助于深入的城市化機(jī)制與特征。(3)CBR-CA對區(qū)域城市用地模擬結(jié)果較好,模擬精度高于傳統(tǒng)CA的模擬結(jié)果。由模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,從全省尺度來看,基于logistic的CA模型(Logistic-CA)模擬精度為74.2%,而CBR-CA的模擬精度達(dá)到82.4%;從地區(qū)尺度和縣市尺度來看,基于案例推理的模擬結(jié)果也都優(yōu)于Logistic-CA的模擬結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the process of urbanization and industrialization in China has been accelerating, and there are many problems, such as excessive expansion of urban land, repeated construction of infrastructure, and disorderly layout of space development. In order to make our country's land space resources fully utilized, the production factors can be circulated intensive and efficient in the regional level of urban agglomeration, provincial and even wider range. Distribution, the state attaches great importance to regional land use planning, constantly strengthens the work of the national and provincial land use planning, and continuously speeds up the construction of Regional Planning Law and relevant legal system, in order to promote the scientific and standardized regional policy, and strengthen the strategic guiding role of regional planning for the development of our country. The demand of land use planning is made by Chinese scholars. The classification of land is [1] (divided into three categories: agricultural land, construction land, unused land) according to the integrated land classification system of urban and rural areas in China (divided into three types of land, construction land, unused land), urban land use is the construction land within the scope of the city. Most of the changes are focused on a single city, mainly focusing on the urban land evolution mechanism within a single city. Through the construction of a set of unified land conversion rules to simulate the urban land use evolution in a single city, the differences in the natural resource endowment, the base of the economic population and the basic elements of the infrastructure are very different in the region, and the use of each city in each city. In order to improve the urban land evolution, it is necessary to improve the traditional urban land evolution simulation method in order to improve the regional level of urban use. The accuracy of the spatial pattern simulation. This paper studies the geographical simulation model suitable for the study of regional urban land use evolution. It has important theoretical significance and applied value for the simulation of large regional urban evolution and the formulation of regional land use planning. This paper aims at the traditional cellular automata (Cellular Automaton for short) in the regional urban land use model. A cellular automaton model based on case-based reasoning is proposed and the simulation results of the model are tested in the study area of Hunan province. The cellular automaton model based on case based reasoning (CBR-CA) is an improved CA model combining case reasoning (Case-Based Reasoning abbreviated CBR) with cellular automata. The contents include: 1, we organize and describe the factors affecting land conversion in the simulation unit, such as land type, characteristic attribute and spatial relationship, and also organize and describe the factors that affect land conversion in the form of geographical cases. 2, the case base is constructed in the whole province, and the law of urban land conversion in different locations in the learning area is deeply excavated through the cases collected in the case base. The guidance model treats the prediction of the land use status of the case. 3, the urban land use evolution simulation results obtained by CBR are introduced into CA, and the spatial pattern.4 of the future urban land use is simulated by CA iteration, and Hunan province is used as the research area to study the spatial differentiation rules of the urban land use evolution rules in Hunan province. The CA model based on case-based reasoning is used to simulate the urban land use evolution of Hunan province from 1990 to 2010. The simulation accuracy of the CBR-CA model is evaluated. The simulation results are compared with the traditional CA model on the simulation results of the urban land use in Hunan province to verify the applicability of the CBR-CA model to the regional urban land evolution simulation. Through the analysis, the following main conclusions are discussed: (1) it is reasonable to simulate the evolution of urban land use based on CBR-CA model. The traditional CA model simulates the evolution of urban land by constructing specific transformation rules, and the CBR-CA model shows the evolution law of regional urban land use in the form of geographical case. The case is the carrier that can imply the spatial difference of the land evolution law in the region, and avoids the work of constructing the complicated and complex land conversion rules. In addition, compared with the traditional CA model, the CBR-CA model can influence the spatial relationship of the geographical location, space distance and the topology structure of the land type. It is applied to the simulation of land use evolution, so as to express more comprehensively and deeply, to refine the law of urban land evolution, and to simulate the development mechanism of the complex geographical phenomenon of urban land use evolution. (2) the different driving factors affecting the evolution of urban land use in different regions in Hunan province are different, and the spatial difference of land conversion rules is obvious, but the driving causes are different. The relationship between the correlation coefficient of the urban evolution and the suburban evolution has a certain spatial differentiation law. The study of the spatial difference characteristics of the urban land use evolution law helps to guide the rational and scientific sampling construction of the CBR-CA model, and also helps to deepen the urbanization mechanism and characteristics. (3) CBR-CA has better simulation results for the regional urban land use, and the simulation precision is good. It is higher than the traditional CA simulation results. The model test results show that the simulation precision of the logistic based CA model (Logistic-CA) is 74.2%, and the simulation precision of CBR-CA reaches 82.4%. From the regional scale and the county and city scale, the simulation results based on case-based reasoning are also superior to the Logistic-CA simulation results.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F299.23

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