發(fā)布時間：2018-04-28 22:01

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價格 + 熵��； 參考：《華北水利水電大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近幾年來,隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展,我國房地產(chǎn)價格也在持續(xù)快速上漲,這不僅極大地影響了城市居民的生活質(zhì)量,也是影響整個國民經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展的一個不穩(wěn)定因素,房地產(chǎn)價格問題已經(jīng)成為一個受到廣泛關(guān)注的重要經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會問題。如何科學(xué)地分析未來房價的總體趨勢,成為政府出臺及時有效調(diào)控政策的關(guān)鍵。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展密切相關(guān)。目前,部分發(fā)達(dá)國家房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展已日趨成熟,房地產(chǎn)價格的走勢分析研究逐漸體系化、科學(xué)化,在政策理論的指導(dǎo)下保持持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的態(tài)勢。與此相比,我國的房地產(chǎn)市場起步較晚,很多理論研究和政策制定還存在不足,而這些都需要依據(jù)未來房價的變化趨勢做深入的研究。因此,如何科學(xué)有效地對我國未來房價的變化特點和總體走勢進(jìn)行分析和把握具有廣闊的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。本文闡述了房地產(chǎn)價格走勢分析的研究現(xiàn)狀,對可定性分析的房價影響因素進(jìn)行了定性分析,同時討論并總結(jié)了目前房價走勢分析方法存在的主要問題,提出了基于信息增益計算方法的房價主要影響因素提取方法,給出房價走勢分析的一種輔助方法-多元線性回歸定量分析模型,并通過回歸分析來確定模型的精度及檢驗,然后建立往年指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)的擬合曲線,從而定量分析未來幾年的房價走勢。通過定量的探討為準(zhǔn)確分析房價走勢起到一定的參考和輔助作用。在此基礎(chǔ)上,從誤差分析、政策導(dǎo)向、應(yīng)用方法等方面對房地產(chǎn)價格走勢展開了更為深入的研究。最后對模型進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,提出了抑制房價的政策和建議。1.有關(guān)房地產(chǎn)價格影響因素的分析方法較多,但缺乏對主要因素提取方法的研究,因此本文從典型的房地產(chǎn)影響因素出發(fā),分析計算各影響因素的熵和信息增益,從而提取影響房價的主要因素,為下一步房地產(chǎn)價格走勢定量分析模型的建立奠定基礎(chǔ)。2.由于目前房地產(chǎn)價格及其影響因素的研究還存在不全面和不成熟的問題,且多集中于影響因素的提取與分析,忽略了房價走勢一般模型的建立。因此,本文首先分析了房地產(chǎn)價格的定義、特點和形成機(jī)制,明確了影響房地產(chǎn)價格的主要因素及相互關(guān)系,給出了基于回歸分析的房價走勢一般模型,并根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度對房地產(chǎn)價格走勢分析研究進(jìn)行分類。3.針對目前缺乏通用的房地產(chǎn)價格走勢定量分析模型的問題,首先分析了各主要因素與房價之間的關(guān)系,然后建立多元線性回歸模型,通過對模型中殘差的最小二乘估計實現(xiàn)對未知參數(shù)的求解。利用通用模型對發(fā)達(dá)和中等發(fā)達(dá)城市的房價走勢進(jìn)行分析,并對實證結(jié)果進(jìn)行了討論。4.針對模型建立過程中忽略了一些次要影響因素的問題,給出了改進(jìn)模型的方法,提出了抑制房價的政策建議,為房地產(chǎn)市場的穩(wěn)定有序發(fā)展提供參考。最后對本文的研究工作進(jìn)行了總結(jié),并對今后的研究方向和政策導(dǎo)向進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the price of real estate in China has also been rising rapidly. This not only greatly affects the quality of life of urban residents, but also an unstable factor affecting the smooth and healthy development of the whole national economy. The real estate price has become an important economy and society which is widely concerned. The development of real estate industry is closely related to the development of real estate industry and economic development. At present, the development of the real estate market in some developed countries is becoming mature, and the analysis of the trend of real estate prices is gradually systematized, scientific and in policy. Under the guidance of the theory, the development of the real estate market in China has started relatively late, and many theoretical research and policy making still exist, and these all need to be studied in depth according to the trend of the future price change. Therefore, how to scientifically and effectively improve the characteristics and general trend of the price changes in the future in China It has a broad theoretical and practical significance to analyze and grasp. This paper expounds the current situation of the analysis of the price trend of real estate, qualitative analysis of the factors that can affect the price of house prices qualitatively, and discusses and summarizes the main questions of the current price trend analysis method, and puts forward the room based on the method of information gain calculation. The main influence factor extraction method is given, and a supplementary method of the price trend analysis is given - multivariate linear regression quantitative analysis model, and the accuracy and test of the model are determined by regression analysis. Then the fitting curve of the previous year's index data is set up, so as to quantitatively analyze the trend of house prices in the next few years. On the basis of this, a more in-depth study of the trend of real estate prices is carried out from the aspects of error analysis, policy orientation and application methods. Finally, the model is optimized, and the policy and suggestion for restraining house prices are put forward, and there are more methods to analyze the factors affecting the price of real estate in.1.. But there is a lack of research on the extraction methods of main factors, so from the typical real estate factors, the entropy and information gain of each influence factor are analyzed and calculated, thus the main factors that affect the house price are extracted, and the basis for the establishment of the quantitative analysis model of the real estate price trend is laid on the basis of the current real estate price and the shadow of the real estate.2.. There are not comprehensive and immature problems in the study of sound factors, and the extraction and analysis of influence factors are mostly concentrated, and the general model of house price trend is ignored. Therefore, the definition, characteristics and formation mechanism of real estate price are analyzed, and the main factors and relations of real estate price are clarified, and the basis of this paper is given. The general model of housing price trend is analyzed by regression analysis, and the analysis of real estate price trend is classified according to the economic development degree. In view of the problem that the current real estate price trend quantitative analysis model is lacking, the relationship between the main factors and the house price is analyzed, and then the multiple linear regression model is set up, and the model is established by the.3. model. The least square estimation of the residual difference in the model is used to solve the unknown parameters. The general model is used to analyze the price trend of the developed and medium developed cities, and the empirical results are discussed, and the problem that.4. is ignored in the process of establishing the model is discussed, and the method of improving the model is given and the house price restraining is put forward. The policy suggestions are provided to provide reference for the stable and orderly development of the real estate market. Finally, the research work of this paper is summarized, and the future research direction and policy orientation are prospected.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.23

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