發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-21 01:31

  本文選題：投資決策　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：投資項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)是項(xiàng)目立項(xiàng)運(yùn)行前必不可少的環(huán)節(jié)。我國(guó)政府明確規(guī)定了投資項(xiàng)目立項(xiàng)前必須具有具備資質(zhì)的咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)出具的項(xiàng)目可行性研究報(bào)告。項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)正是評(píng)判該項(xiàng)目是否可行的重要組成部分,特別是在以公司(投資者)盈利為目的的前提下,項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果好壞對(duì)投資者做出合理決策具有重要意義。目前來(lái)看,我國(guó)所采用的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)的方法和參數(shù)是由2006年國(guó)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的《方法與參數(shù)(第三版)》中規(guī)定的內(nèi)容決定的。然而8年過(guò)去了,整個(gè)國(guó)家乃至全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)都得以飛速地發(fā)展,各行各業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r發(fā)生了很大的變化,越來(lái)越多的因素會(huì)影響到傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法對(duì)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的正確性和準(zhǔn)確性。因此,我們需要對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法做適當(dāng)?shù)恼{(diào)整,使之能夠符合社會(huì)發(fā)展的規(guī)律和趨勢(shì),從而達(dá)到正確地對(duì)投資項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)的目的。本文首先在闡述了此次研究的背景意義以及國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀,并總結(jié)歸納了投資項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)、投資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)方法等方面的相關(guān)理論。然后從微觀(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和宏觀(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)兩個(gè)方面入手,分別建立不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)引入模型,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法加以調(diào)整。微觀(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面,分析了項(xiàng)目?jī)衄F(xiàn)金流量波動(dòng)的特征,并由此量化和引入凈現(xiàn)金流量波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；宏觀(guān)方面,以利率浮動(dòng)衡量宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的變化,通過(guò)分析歷年利率變化,預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)年度利率,引入宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。綜合二者,形成新的引入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法。最后,通過(guò)案例分析對(duì)該模型進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用。結(jié)果表明,該新方法不僅具有傳統(tǒng)方法所具備的功能,還能夠?yàn)橥顿Y者提供額外的經(jīng)濟(jì)信息,從而使投資者更好地做出決策,把握投資機(jī)會(huì)。
[Abstract]:The economic evaluation of the investment project is an essential link before the project is established and run. Our government has clearly stipulated that the investment project must have a qualified consulting agency to issue the project feasibility study report. Economic evaluation is an important part of judging the viability of the project. Especially on the premise of the profit of the company (investor), the result of the economic evaluation of the project is of great significance for the investor to make reasonable decision. The methods and parameters of project economic evaluation adopted in our country are determined by the contents stipulated in "methods and parameters (third Edition)" discovered by our country in 2006. However, eight years have passed, and the economy of the whole country and even the whole world has been able to develop rapidly. Great changes have taken place in the development of various industries, and more and more factors will affect the correctness and accuracy of the traditional economic evaluation methods for the economic evaluation of projects. We need to make appropriate adjustments to the traditional methods of economic evaluation of projects so that they can conform to the laws and trends of social development. In order to achieve the purpose of economic evaluation of investment projects correctly. Firstly, this paper expounds the background significance of this study and the current research situation at home and abroad, and summarizes the economic evaluation of investment projects. Investment project risk and economic forecasting methods and other related theories. Then from the micro risk and macro risk two aspects, respectively, establish different risk introduction model, The article analyzes the characteristics of the fluctuation of the net cash flow of the project, and then quantifies and introduces the volatility risk of the net cash flow. The change of macroeconomic environment is measured by the fluctuation of interest rate, the change of interest rate in past years is analyzed, the future annual interest rate is forecasted, and the risk of change of macroeconomic environment is introduced. A new method of economic evaluation of investment projects with risk is formed. Finally, the model is applied through case analysis. The results show that the new method not only has the functions of traditional methods, It can also provide investors with additional economic information, so that investors can make better decisions and seize investment opportunities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F283

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本文編號(hào)：1641666