本文關(guān)鍵詞：略論我國自然災害對宏觀經(jīng)濟增長的影響——基于內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長理論視角，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

略論我國自然災害對宏觀經(jīng)濟增長的影響——基于內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長理論視角

Analysis of the Impact of Natural Disasters on Macroeconomic Growth Based on the Theory of Endogenous Growth

[1]

JIA Mei - qin （ School of Management, Zhongzhou University, Zhengzhou 450044, China）

中州大學管理學院,河南鄭州450044

文章摘要：自然災害具有偶發(fā)性,就我國全國范圍看,自然災害又是必然發(fā)生事件。把自然災害損失內(nèi)生化以度量其對宏觀經(jīng)濟增長的影響。實證分析表明,自然災害直接損失對當年經(jīng)濟增長起到負面影響,災后2～3年的時間里對經(jīng)濟有拉動作用;而在災后4～5年內(nèi)表現(xiàn)出對經(jīng)濟的負面作用。總的來說,相對于投資和勞動投入自然災害直接經(jīng)濟損失對GDP增長的影響比較小,長期影響表現(xiàn)出負彈性。自然災害損失主要通過損失社會財富和拉動內(nèi)需影響宏觀經(jīng)濟增長,災害當期主要是社會財富損失的負面影響,災后2～3年則體現(xiàn)內(nèi)需拉動的正面影響;從長期看,社會財富損失的負面影響要高于內(nèi)需拉動的正面影響。

Abstr：As a nationwide of China, natural disasters is unavoidable other than is incidental. So to this article, natural disaster losses are as endogenous variables to measure its impact on macroeconomic growth. The resuhs sug- gest that The direct economic losses of disasters have a negative impact on the economic growth, and 2 years to 3 years after, have a stimulating effect. After 4 to 5 years, shows a negative effect on the economy. In general, com- pared with the effect of investment and labor, direct economic losses caused by natural disasters have relatively small impact on GDP growth, and long -term effects showed negative elasticity. This article suggests natural disas- ters mainly through the loss of social wealth and stimulating domestic demand to have influences on macroeconomic growth. At the very beginning social wealth losses have a negative influence. After 2 to 3 years of positive effect of stimulating domestic demand. In the long run, negative impact of social wealth loss is more than that of stimulating domestic demand.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:natural disaster direct economic losses economic growth endogenous economic growth theory

課題項目：國家社科基金項目“重大自然災害的統(tǒng)計問題與波及效應研究”（10BTJ009）

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：略論我國自然災害對宏觀經(jīng)濟增長的影響——基于內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長理論視角，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。