本文關(guān)鍵詞： 勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移 三次產(chǎn)業(yè) 結(jié)構(gòu)紅利 轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題探索》2016年01期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)背景下,中國(guó)的人口轉(zhuǎn)變帶來(lái)了勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量和結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。本文采用隨機(jī)前沿生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型,實(shí)證分析了1978-2013年三次產(chǎn)業(yè)間勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移所引致的結(jié)構(gòu)紅利效應(yīng),從勞動(dòng)力產(chǎn)業(yè)間轉(zhuǎn)移的視角探求促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的要因。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移的結(jié)構(gòu)紅利效應(yīng)確實(shí)存在。第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)紅利除了少數(shù)幾個(gè)年份外整體上為正,而第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)由于勞動(dòng)力的流動(dòng)經(jīng)歷了由盲目到規(guī)范有序的過(guò)程,結(jié)構(gòu)紅利呈現(xiàn)出由負(fù)變正的趨勢(shì)。此外,由于結(jié)構(gòu)紅利在整個(gè)周期存在波動(dòng)性,2013年為人口紅利拐點(diǎn)的觀點(diǎn)并未被證實(shí)。鑒于此,應(yīng)從加快城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程、推進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整升級(jí)、加強(qiáng)基本公共服務(wù)均等化建設(shè)、提高教育質(zhì)量和加強(qiáng)技能培訓(xùn)等多方面著手拓展結(jié)構(gòu)紅利,實(shí)現(xiàn)高水平的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the new normal economy, the population transition in China has brought about the changes in the quantity and structure of labor force. This paper adopts the stochastic frontier production function model to empirically analyze the structural dividend effect caused by the three inter-industry labor force transfers from 1978 to 2013. From the perspective of industrial transfer of labor force, this paper explores the main reasons for promoting the economic development of China. The study finds that the structural dividend effect of labor force transfer does exist. The structural dividend of the primary industry is positive as a whole except for a few years, and second, Due to the flow of labor force, the tertiary industry has experienced a process from blindness to normality and the structural dividend has shown a trend of negative and positive. In addition, Due to the volatility of structural dividend in the whole cycle, the view that 2013 is the inflection point of demographic dividend has not been confirmed. In view of this, we should speed up the process of urbanization, promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, and strengthen the construction of equalization of basic public services. Improve the quality of education and strengthen skills training and other aspects of the development of structural dividends to achieve a high level of economic development.
【作者單位】： 中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué);
【基金】：國(guó)家社科重大項(xiàng)目:“完善計(jì)劃生育利益導(dǎo)向機(jī)制研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):11&ZD038)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F249.2

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本文編號(hào)：1525865