本文選題：中美 + 匯率��； 參考：《廣西大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：21世紀以來,經(jīng)濟區(qū)域化、全球化的趨勢逐步加深,世界貿(mào)易飛速增長,國際資本加速流動,作為世界經(jīng)濟政治大國的美國和中國的利益沖突也日益加深,雙方利用各種政策手段在貿(mào)易、貨幣、稅收等領域展開較量,引發(fā)其他各國的高度關注。在匯率方面,中美爭端的焦點集中在人民幣幣值的確定上。美國從2002年開始就聲稱人民幣被低估,導致中美貿(mào)易中美國長期維持貿(mào)易逆差,進而使得美國國內(nèi)失業(yè)嚴重、產(chǎn)品滯銷等問題,同時采取行動逼迫人民幣升值。在以美國為首的國家迫使下,我國于2005年7月21日實行匯率改革,當時人民幣對美元的匯率就上升2%,到目前為止人民幣已經(jīng)升值約32%。這一結果標示著中美匯率博弈中中方的劣勢地位,雖然有造成損失,但損失尚在可接受的范圍內(nèi)。 本文通過對國內(nèi)外相關文獻的研究,以匯率博弈機制為基礎,詳細分析了中美匯率博弈狀況,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響中美匯率博弈結果的因素可能為中美經(jīng)濟總量差異、中美產(chǎn)業(yè)結構差異、中美通貨膨脹差異、中美利率差異、中美進出口差額,此外,中美軍事差異和中美政治影響力差異等也會對中美匯率博弈結果產(chǎn)生影響。針對這些可能使中國在中美匯率博弈中處于劣勢的因素,本文選擇前面五個可以量化的指標做了實證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中美經(jīng)濟總量差異、中美產(chǎn)業(yè)結構差異、中美通貨膨脹差異、中美進出口差額對中美匯率波動的影響在統(tǒng)計學上來說是顯著的。針對這些影響因素,本文在最后提出了一系列可能的對策與建議,力求能縮小中美在上述領域內(nèi)的差異。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, economic regionalization, the trend of globalization, the rapid growth of world trade, the accelerated flow of international capital, and the conflicts of interest between the United States and China, as major economic and political powers in the world, have deepened day by day. The two sides use various policy measures in trade, currency, taxation and other areas of competition, attracting high attention from other countries. In terms of exchange rate, the focus of the dispute between China and the United States is the determination of the value of the RMB. Since 2002, the United States has claimed that the yuan is undervalued, which has led to a long-term trade deficit between China and the United States, which has led to serious unemployment and unsalable products in the United States, while taking action to force the appreciation of the renminbi. Under the pressure of the United States-led countries, China carried out the exchange rate reform on July 21, 2005, when the RMB exchange rate rose by 2% against the US dollar, and so far the RMB has appreciated about 32%. This result indicates the inferior position of the Chinese side in the exchange rate game between China and the United States. Although there are some losses, the losses are still within the acceptable range. Based on the research of domestic and foreign literatures and the exchange rate game mechanism, this paper analyzes the situation of the exchange rate game between China and the United States in detail, and finds out that the factors influencing the result of the exchange rate game may be the difference of the total economic volume between China and the United States, and the difference of the industrial structure between China and the United States. The differences of inflation, interest rate, import and export between China and the United States, as well as the military differences between China and the United States and the differences in political influence between China and the United States, will also have an impact on the results of the exchange rate game between China and the United States. In view of these factors which may make China in a disadvantage in the Sino-US exchange rate game, this paper chooses the first five quantifiable indicators to do empirical analysis, and finds out the differences of the total economic volume, the industrial structure of China and the United States, and the difference of inflation between China and the United States. The effect of the balance of imports and exports on the exchange rate fluctuation is statistically significant. Aiming at these influencing factors, this paper puts forward a series of possible countermeasures and suggestions in order to narrow the differences between China and the United States in the above fields.
【學位授予單位】：廣西大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F837.12

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本文編號：2015802