本文選題：美元走弱　切入點(diǎn)：出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文針對在美元在新世紀(jì)下的弱勢調(diào)整所導(dǎo)致的我國出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整這一焦點(diǎn)問題,試圖探究美元走弱對我國各出口行業(yè)的影響方向、影響程度,并為我國的外貿(mào)出口改革提供一些基礎(chǔ)性的建議。本文主要分為兩部分,首先選取2002年至2012年這十年的美元走弱周期作為參考期,以TC指數(shù)考察中國出口工業(yè)制成品貿(mào)易競爭力在美元走弱的外部環(huán)境下的變化結(jié)構(gòu)和演變歷程,然后基于SITC2位數(shù)據(jù)對具體各類貿(mào)易商品所受匯率波動沖擊的方向和程度進(jìn)行估計(jì)。最終結(jié)論主要有以下幾點(diǎn)：第一,通過對我國工業(yè)制成品出口的38個(gè)科目的橫向及縱向比較,可以看出在整個(gè)美元貶值的周期中,美元走弱對我國的出口制成品的比較優(yōu)勢呈現(xiàn)出的逐漸向資本密集型產(chǎn)品的轉(zhuǎn)型態(tài)勢起到了促進(jìn)作用。另外,本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)釘住一籃子世界貨幣的我國的出口制成品的出口競爭力比釘住美元時(shí)高,說明匯率改革對我國的出口制成品的比較優(yōu)勢提高有促進(jìn)作用。第二,美國匯率走弱對于我國資本與技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品對北美地區(qū)的出口具有抑制作用,美國匯率走弱對于我國資本密集型產(chǎn)品的向除去美國以外的國家及地區(qū)、尤其是亞洲發(fā)達(dá)國家及地區(qū)出口具有促進(jìn)作用。第三,美國匯率走弱對于我國勞動密集型產(chǎn)品對大多數(shù)國家及地區(qū)的出口具有抑制作用,美元走弱迫使中國的傳統(tǒng)出口制成品項(xiàng)目出口受到大量縮水,遇到瓶頸。主要由于美元走弱使得我國的勞動密集型產(chǎn)品的國際價(jià)格相對于東南亞國家的價(jià)格更加昂貴,使得中國出口商品喪失了巨大的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢。最后,本文總結(jié)研究結(jié)論并提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。即發(fā)展新興國家市場,開辟外貿(mào)出口新格局、采取多項(xiàng)刺激國內(nèi)大眾群體消費(fèi)的措施,由原先的以出口和投資拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)的格局徹底改變。積極穩(wěn)妥地整合勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)與對外貿(mào)易,擴(kuò)大資本與技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口。與包括美國在內(nèi)的國際社會進(jìn)行商貿(mào)談判,解決匯率爭端,防止貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義重燃,切實(shí)加強(qiáng)多邊、雙邊貿(mào)易合作,促進(jìn)貿(mào)易合作的區(qū)域一體化。同時(shí)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步完善我國人民幣匯率制度才是我國在出口外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)的必由之路。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the focus of the adjustment of China's export trade structure caused by the weak adjustment of US dollar in the new century, this paper attempts to explore the direction and extent of the impact of the weakening of US dollar on China's export industries.And for China's foreign trade export reform to provide some basic suggestions.This paper is divided into two parts. Firstly, this paper selects the 10-year period of dollar weakening from 2002 to 2012 as the reference period, and examines the changing structure and evolution process of China's export manufactured goods trade competitiveness under the external environment of dollar weakness with TC index.Then based on the SITC2 bit data, the direction and extent of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on specific trade commodities are estimated.The final conclusions are as follows: first, through the horizontal and vertical comparison of 38 subjects of our country's exports of manufactured products, we can see that during the entire period of depreciation of the US dollar,The weakening of the US dollar has promoted the transition from the comparative advantage of China's manufactured goods to capital-intensive products.In addition, this paper also finds that the export competitiveness of China's manufactured goods pegged to a basket of world currencies is higher than that of the US dollar, indicating that the exchange rate reform can promote the comparative advantage of China's export manufactured goods.Second, the weakening of the United States exchange rate has a restraining effect on the exports of China's capital-and technology-intensive products to North America, and the weakening of the US exchange rate is conducive to the direction of China's capital-intensive products to countries and regions other than the United States.In particular, Asian developed countries and regional exports play a role in promoting.Third, the weak exchange rate of the United States has a restraining effect on the export of labor-intensive products to the majority of countries and regions. The weakening of the US dollar has forced China's exports of manufactured goods to be greatly reduced and met with bottlenecks.Mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar, the international price of China's labor-intensive products is more expensive than that of Southeast Asian countries, which makes Chinese exports lose a huge price advantage.Finally, this paper summarizes the conclusions of the study and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.That is, to develop the market of emerging countries, to open up a new pattern of foreign trade and export, to take many measures to stimulate domestic mass consumption, and to completely change the original pattern of stimulating the economy by export and investment.Actively and steadily integrate domestic production and foreign trade of labor-intensive industries and expand exports of capital and technology-intensive products.Trade negotiations with the international community, including the United States, to resolve currency disputes, prevent the resurgence of trade protectionism, strengthen multilateral and bilateral trade cooperation, and promote regional integration of trade cooperation.At the same time, to continue to steadily improve China's RMB exchange rate system is the only way for China to export foreign trade structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.62;F837.12

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 彭華;戰(zhàn)后日本制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)研究[D];東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2013年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 劉蘇葉子;人民幣匯率對長三角貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)影響的研究[D];浙江工商大學(xué);2013年

2 韋玉容;人民幣實(shí)際匯率波動對中越貿(mào)易的影響研究[D];廣西大學(xué);2014年

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本文編號：1717839