本文選題：人民幣匯率　切入點：國內(nèi)物價　出處：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在開放經(jīng)濟條件下,匯率作為一個國家的貨幣相對于另一個國家貨幣的價格,在國與國之間的經(jīng)濟交往越來越頻繁的今天,匯率對各國經(jīng)濟的都有著非常重要的影響。而物價穩(wěn)定作為我國宏觀調(diào)控的四大目標(biāo)之一,與居民的日常生活息息相關(guān),也一直受到貨幣政策的制定者和廣大居民的廣泛關(guān)注 2005年7月21日,為了讓人民幣匯率更加貼近市場,更好地發(fā)揮其作用,我國對人民幣匯率制度進(jìn)行了改革,自此以后,人民幣匯率開始逐步升值。從2005年7月至2013年10月,國際清算銀行公布的人民幣實際有效匯率和人民幣名義有效匯率分別累計升值了36.61%和27%。傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論認(rèn)為,一國貨幣升值應(yīng)該能夠增加進(jìn)口減少出口,從而有效地減少貿(mào)易順差,減少以外匯占款形式而存在的那部分貨幣供應(yīng)量,進(jìn)而降低國內(nèi)通貨膨脹壓力。但是,我國的實際情況卻并非如此。伴隨著人民幣匯率的快速升值,我國凈出口不斷擴大,貿(mào)易順差不斷增加,由此帶來的外匯儲備規(guī)模不斷增大。而且,與此同時,國內(nèi)物價也經(jīng)歷了幾輪的持續(xù)上升過程,通貨膨脹壓力不斷加大。理論和現(xiàn)實的差異要求重新考慮匯率變動與物價之間的關(guān)系�；谖覈c傳統(tǒng)理論不符的現(xiàn)象,本文在傳統(tǒng)匯率與物價關(guān)系理論及一些新的匯率傳遞的理論基礎(chǔ)之上,對人民幣匯率變動對國內(nèi)物價的影響進(jìn)行了實證分析,對人民幣匯率變動對國內(nèi)三類價格的影響進(jìn)行了分析。 本文的結(jié)構(gòu)主要包括六個章節(jié)。第一章為緒論,主要介紹本文的選題背景與意義以及文章結(jié)構(gòu),并對現(xiàn)有的國內(nèi)外一些有關(guān)匯率價格傳遞效應(yīng)的理論與實證研究成果進(jìn)行簡要介紹,最后指出本文創(chuàng)新點與不足之處。第二章簡要介紹了匯率變動與物價之間關(guān)系的一些理論,主要包括傳統(tǒng)的購買力平價假說、巴拉薩-薩繆爾森理論以及認(rèn)為在一定條件下本國貨幣的升值將會引發(fā)通貨緊縮的麥金農(nóng)理論和一些新匯率傳遞理論,對匯率變動與物價之間的關(guān)系做一個理論上的闡述。第三章在前面相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上對人民幣匯率變動對國內(nèi)物價的影響路徑進(jìn)行了分析。本文將匯率變動影響國內(nèi)物價的路徑分為進(jìn)口商品價格路徑、宏觀經(jīng)濟變量路徑和資產(chǎn)價格路徑,對每個影響路徑影響國內(nèi)物價的原理進(jìn)行了闡述。第四章主要是現(xiàn)實情況的介紹,回顧了我國“匯改”以來人民幣匯率和國內(nèi)物價的變化歷程,從直觀上分析人民幣匯率與國內(nèi)物價的關(guān)系。第五章是實證部分,本文采用VAR模型對匯率變動對國內(nèi)物價的影響進(jìn)行實證分析。在單位根檢驗、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗和Johansen協(xié)整檢驗的基礎(chǔ)之上建立一個VAR模型,對匯率變動通過三個不同路徑對國內(nèi)物價水平的影響進(jìn)行綜合分析,并分析人民幣匯率變動對國 內(nèi)三類不同物價水平的不同影響。第六章則對全文做一個總結(jié)并相應(yīng)地提出些政策建議。 實證結(jié)果表明：首先,總體來看,短期內(nèi)人民幣升值能在一定程度上抑制國內(nèi)進(jìn)口商品價格、工業(yè)品出廠價格和消費價格的上漲。這表明人民幣匯率的升值能在一定程度上緩解國內(nèi)的通貨膨脹壓力。但是,控制貨幣供應(yīng)量的增長速度和控制資產(chǎn)價格等對治理通貨膨脹比人民幣升值更有效。其次,人民幣匯率的變動對進(jìn)口商品價格、工業(yè)品出廠價格和消費價格的影響是依次遞減的。所以從長期來看,人民幣升值并不能有效地抑制國內(nèi)價格的上漲,反而可能通過推高資產(chǎn)價格而造成通貨膨脹的壓力加大。 基于以上的實證研究結(jié)果,本文針對性地提出了一些政策建議：第一,人民幣升值在短期內(nèi)可以作為治理通貨膨脹的政策工具,但是,我們應(yīng)該從多方面著手來治理通貨膨脹,綜合運用貨幣政策、財政政策與匯率政策等措施；第二,要改變發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,擴大內(nèi)需,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟增長方式；第三,要完善人民幣匯率的形成機制,擴大人民幣匯率的彈性和靈活性,提高人民幣匯率的市場化程度；加強對人民幣匯率預(yù)期的管理；人民幣匯率在短期內(nèi)必須保持基本穩(wěn)定,升值應(yīng)當(dāng)遵循小幅、漸進(jìn)的原則。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of open economy, the exchange rate as the currency of one country relative to another country's currency price, in between the nations and economic exchanges have become more frequent today, the exchange rate of the national economy has a very important influence. And the price stability as one of the four major objectives of China's macroeconomic regulation and control. Closely related to the daily life of residents, but also has been widely concerned by policy makers and the majority of residents
In July 21, 2005, in order to make RMB exchange rate closer to the market, to better play its role after China reformed the RMB exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate began to rise gradually since then. From July 2005 to October 2013, published by the bank for International Settlements of RMB real effective exchange rate and the RMB nominal effective exchange rate respectively has risen 36.61% and that of economic theory the traditional 27%., a currency appreciation should be able to increase imports to reduce exports, so as to effectively reduce the trade surplus, reduce part of the money supply to foreign exchange exists, thereby reducing the pressure on domestic inflation. However, the actual situation in our country is not the case. With the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, China's net exports continue to expand, increasing trade surplus, the scale of foreign exchange reserve increased. And at the same time. Also, domestic prices experienced a sustained rise of several rounds, increasing inflationary pressures. Between theory and reality to consider the relationship between exchange rate and price. China and the traditional theory with the phenomenon based on the theory basis of the traditional relationship between exchange rate and price theory and some new exchange rate pass. The impact of RMB exchange rate on the domestic price of an empirical analysis, the impact of RMB exchange rate changes to the domestic price of three types were analyzed.
The structure of this paper consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background and significance and the structure, and the existing domestic and foreign exchange rate pass through some relevant theoretical and empirical research on the effect of the results are briefly introduced, finally pointed out the innovation points and deficiencies. The second chapter briefly introduces some theory the relationship between the exchange rate and price, including the traditional PPP hypothesis, Pakistan Lhasa Samuelson theory and Mackinnon's theory that deflation and some of the new exchange rate transfer theory in the domestic currency appreciation will be under certain conditions, a theoretical exposition of the relationship between exchange rate and price. The third chapter in the front of theory on the impact of RMB exchange rate on the domestic price path is analyzed. The influence of exchange rate in China In the path of the price the price of imported goods is divided into macro economic variables and path path, the path of asset prices, the domestic price of each principle influence path effects are described. The fourth chapter mainly introduces the reality of the situation, the review of the "reform" since the RMB exchange rate and domestic prices change process, analysis of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate with the domestic price intuitively. The fifth chapter is the empirical part, this paper uses VAR model to analyze the influence of exchange rate on the domestic price. In the unit root test, Grainger causality test and Johansen co integration test based on the establishment of a VAR model of exchange rate changes were analyzed through three different paths the impact on the domestic price level, and the analysis of the RMB exchange rate movements on China
The three different kinds of different price levels are different. The sixth chapter makes a summary of the full text and puts forward some policy suggestions accordingly.
The empirical results show that: first, overall, short-term RMB appreciation can restrain domestic prices of imported goods to a certain extent, prices and consumer prices of industrial products. This shows that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate to ease domestic inflation pressure to a certain extent. However, more effective control of the money supply growth rate and control of asset prices on inflation than RMB appreciation. Secondly, the price of RMB exchange rate on imports, industrial producer prices and consumer prices is decreasing. So in the long term, the RMB appreciation can not effectively curb domestic prices, but may be caused by inflation by pushing up asset prices the pressure is increased.
Based on the above empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions: first, the appreciation of the renminbi in the short term can control inflation as a policy tool, however, we should start from the aspects of to control inflation, the integrated use of monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy measures; second, to change the development strategy. The expansion of domestic demand, change the mode of economic growth; third, to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the expansion of the RMB exchange rate flexibility, improve the degree of marketization of RMB exchange rate; RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen the management; the RMB exchange rate must remain stable in the short term, the appreciation should follow the principle of small, incremental.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F726;F832.6

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