本文選題：日本　切入點(diǎn)：量化寬松貨幣政策　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2008年國(guó)際金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后,日本、美國(guó)、歐盟地區(qū)等發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體為應(yīng)對(duì)全球范圍內(nèi)的金融危機(jī),擺脫國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷狀態(tài),普遍采取了以量化寬松為主的刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的政策,以緩解國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退及通貨緊縮。近兩年來,在美國(guó)正在逐步退出量化寬松貨幣政策的同時(shí),日本則一直在強(qiáng)調(diào)“在通貨膨脹穩(wěn)定在2%的目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)之前,將繼續(xù)推行量化寬松政策”。日本作為量化寬松貨幣政策的首創(chuàng)國(guó)家,它的實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)非常值得我們借鑒。同時(shí),日本與中國(guó)貿(mào)易聯(lián)系緊密,其量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)必然造成影響。這種溢出效應(yīng)的作用方向、影響程度以及溢出效應(yīng)的渠道問題值得我們深入探討。面臨世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體頻繁的量化寬松貨幣政策操作以及世界范圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的沖擊,我國(guó)如何積極應(yīng)對(duì)并盡量消除負(fù)的溢出效應(yīng)是亟待解決的問題。 本文首先介紹了量化寬松貨幣政策的涵義,分析了貨幣政策溢出效應(yīng)的傳導(dǎo)渠道。在詳細(xì)闡述日本量化寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)踐基礎(chǔ)上,從理論層面分析了日本量化寬松對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的溢出效應(yīng),并運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型重點(diǎn)對(duì)日本量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響方向、影響程度、影響時(shí)間進(jìn)行量化分析,并力圖將分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行總結(jié),以提出合理恰當(dāng)?shù)恼呓ㄗh。 本文重點(diǎn)對(duì)日本量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的溢出效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,借助VAR模型,構(gòu)建了包含六個(gè)變量的向量自回歸模型。本文選取了我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、對(duì)日進(jìn)出口總額、大宗商品價(jià)格指數(shù)、銀行間同業(yè)拆借利率及外匯儲(chǔ)備等五個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量作為日本量化寬松貨幣政策實(shí)施的作用變量。通過對(duì)VAR模型中時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),并對(duì)模型的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)進(jìn)行分析。得出了以下結(jié)論： 日本量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)的溢出效應(yīng)的確存在,對(duì)我國(guó)GDP、對(duì)日進(jìn)出口總額TEV、銀行間同業(yè)拆借利率SHIBOR、外匯儲(chǔ)備量FER的影響方向?yàn)檎?fù)交替。因此,日本量化寬松會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)GDP、進(jìn)出口總額的平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生不利的影響；對(duì)我國(guó)利率、外匯儲(chǔ)備的穩(wěn)定也會(huì)產(chǎn)生不利的影響。日本量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)的大宗商品價(jià)格指數(shù)CCPI的影響方向大致為負(fù),會(huì)造成我國(guó)大宗商品價(jià)格的下跌。因此,日本實(shí)施量化寬松貨幣政策,會(huì)通過貿(mào)易產(chǎn)出渠道、利率渠道、匯率渠道、國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格渠道等對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng),對(duì)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)、健康的增長(zhǎng)帶來不利的影響。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis occurred in 2008, developed economies such as Japan, the United States, the European Union and other developed economies, in order to cope with the global financial crisis and extricate themselves from the domestic economic downturn, generally adopted a policy of stimulating the economy with quantitative easing as the main factor. To ease domestic recession and deflation. Over the past two years, while the United States has been phasing out its quantitative easing monetary policy, Japan has been emphasizing that "until inflation stabilizes at 2 percent," Japan, as the first country of quantitative easing monetary policy, its practical experience is very worthy of our reference. At the same time, Japan and China have close trade ties. Its monetary policy of quantitative easing will inevitably have an impact on our country. The extent of the impact and the channels of spillover effects deserve further discussion. Faced with the impact of frequent quantitative easing monetary policy operations in the world's major economies and the worldwide economic crisis, How to actively deal with and eliminate negative spillover effect is an urgent problem in China. This paper first introduces the meaning of quantitative easing monetary policy, analyzes the transmission channel of monetary policy spillover effect. This paper analyzes the spillover effect of Japanese quantitative easing on China's economy from a theoretical perspective, and applies econometric model to focus on the direction and extent of the impact of Japan's quantitative easing monetary policy on China's real economy. The influence time is analyzed quantitatively, and the analysis results are summarized in order to put forward reasonable and appropriate policy suggestions. This paper focuses on the empirical analysis of the spillover effect of Japan's quantitative easing monetary policy on China's economy. With the help of VAR model, a vector autoregressive model with six variables is constructed. The five economic variables, such as total import and export, commodity price index, interbank offered rate and foreign exchange reserve, are used as the action variables of Japan's monetary policy of quantitative easing. The stability of time series in VAR model is tested. The test of cointegration relation and the analysis of the impulse response function of the model are made. The following conclusions are obtained:. The spillover effect of Japan's quantitative easing monetary policy on China does exist. For our country, the total import and export to Japan, the interbank offered rate (IBOR) and the foreign exchange reserve (FER) influence direction is positive or negative alternately. Japan's quantitative easing will have a negative impact on the steady growth of China's GDP and imports and exports; on China's interest rates, The stability of foreign exchange reserves will also have a negative impact. The impact of Japan's quantitative easing monetary policy on China's commodity price index (CCPI) is roughly negative, which will result in a decline in China's commodity prices. The implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in Japan will have spillover effect on our country through trade output channel, interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, international commodity price channel and so on, which will bring adverse effect to the steady and healthy growth of our economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F823.13;F124

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