本文關(guān)鍵詞： 實際有效匯率 馬歇爾—勒納條件 “J”曲線效應(yīng) 協(xié)整檢驗　出處：《貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自2005年開始，我國匯率就呈現(xiàn)出穩(wěn)中有升的趨勢，人民幣兌美元匯率中間價從最早的“8元時代”到“7元時代”再到現(xiàn)在的“6元時代”，人民幣不斷升值，并按現(xiàn)在的趨勢看，還有進一步升值的空間。近年來，隨著我國市場化程度的不斷加深，我國涉外經(jīng)濟在整個國民生產(chǎn)總值中所占的比例不斷升高，可以說，涉外經(jīng)濟的整體發(fā)展?fàn)顩r對我國經(jīng)濟起著重要作用。其中作為橋梁聯(lián)系國內(nèi)市場與國外市場的匯率，它在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中的作用就不言而喻。因此，進行匯率變動對我國經(jīng)濟增長所造成的影響的研究就十分有必要，，對我們了解匯率作用于經(jīng)濟的原理以及在面對人民幣升值趨勢下應(yīng)采取的對策都具有積極意義。 本文的主要研究可分為兩大部分。第一大部分是理論分析和現(xiàn)狀研究。理論分析主要介紹匯率的基礎(chǔ)概念以及當(dāng)前國際上的主流觀點，現(xiàn)狀研究部分則是在結(jié)合我國1994年以來匯率變化基礎(chǔ)上分別和物價水平、進出口貿(mào)易以及外商直接投資進行分析，從趨勢圖上發(fā)現(xiàn)它們之間存在著相關(guān)關(guān)系，同時為下面的實證分析進行變量選擇；第二大部分主要是實證分析和對策建議。實證分析部分通過構(gòu)建模型對出口、進口和外商直接投資進行分別分析，在求出匯率變動對三者影響程度的基礎(chǔ)上運用宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論算出匯率變動對整個國民經(jīng)濟的具體影響程度。在對策建議方面，從匯率制度、抑制物價水平、合理引進外商直接投資和調(diào)整進出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)方面提出了建議，同時提出了一切決策目的是為經(jīng)濟服務(wù)的原則。本文的數(shù)據(jù)來源于國際清算銀行和中國統(tǒng)計年鑒，選擇從2000—2013年季度時間序列作為實證分析的基礎(chǔ)，主要變量有實際有效匯率、出口額、進口額、外商直接投資、國民生產(chǎn)總值以及國外收入，數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)一以2010年為基期，在剔除了通貨膨脹影響的前提下采用協(xié)整分析等計量統(tǒng)計學(xué)方法進行數(shù)據(jù)處理。 實證結(jié)果表明：匯率變動與出口、進口和外商直接投資存在著長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系。匯率上升，導(dǎo)致出口商品在國際市場上競爭力的下降，失去優(yōu)勢從而市場份額減少，不利于出口；導(dǎo)致本幣升值，本幣需求增加從而進口增加；會導(dǎo)致外商直接投資成本的增加，減少外商預(yù)期利潤從而投資力度下降。并且根據(jù)實證分析得出的彈性系數(shù)可以看到匯率變動對出口的影響程度最大，外商直接投資程度居中，進口方程受到的影響最小。最后在基于各變量影響程度的基礎(chǔ)上求出匯率變動對與我國經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系：人民幣匯率的上升會導(dǎo)致我國經(jīng)濟增長率的下降。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, China's exchange rate has shown a steady upward trend. From the earliest "8 yuan era" to the "7 yuan era" to the present "6 yuan era", the RMB continues to appreciate, and according to the current trend, There is room for further appreciation. In recent years, with the deepening of China's marketization, the proportion of China's foreign-related economy in the total gross national product (GNP) has been increasing. It can be said that, The overall development of the foreign-related economy plays an important role in China's economy. As a bridge linking the exchange rate between the domestic market and the foreign market, its role in the process of economic development is self-evident. It is necessary to study the effect of exchange rate change on China's economic growth. It is of positive significance for us to understand the principle of exchange rate acting on the economy and the countermeasures to be taken in the face of the trend of RMB appreciation. The main research of this paper can be divided into two parts. The first part is theoretical analysis and current situation research. Theoretical analysis mainly introduces the basic concept of exchange rate and the current international mainstream view. On the basis of the change of exchange rate since 1994, the present situation is analyzed separately with price level, import and export trade and foreign direct investment, and it is found that there is a correlation between them on the trend chart. At the same time, the following empirical analysis variables are selected; the second part is mainly empirical analysis and countermeasures. The empirical analysis part through the construction of models to export, imports and foreign direct investment analysis, respectively. On the basis of finding out the influence degree of exchange rate change on the three factors, the author calculates the concrete influence degree of exchange rate change on the whole national economy by using macroeconomics theory. In the aspect of countermeasure and suggestion, from exchange rate system to restrain price level, This paper puts forward some suggestions on how to introduce foreign direct investment and adjust the structure of import and export trade, and puts forward the principle that all decision-making purposes are to serve the economy. The data in this paper are from the Bank for International Settlements and the Statistical Yearbook of China. Selected from 2000-2013 quarterly time series as the basis of empirical analysis, the main variables are the real effective exchange rate, exports, imports, foreign direct investment, gross national product and foreign income. Cointegration analysis and other econometric methods are used to process the data without the influence of inflation. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and export, import and foreign direct investment. The rise of exchange rate leads to the decline of the competitiveness of export commodities in the international market, the loss of advantage and the decrease of market share. It is not conducive to exports; it will lead to the appreciation of the local currency, the increase in demand for the local currency and the increase in imports; it will lead to an increase in the cost of foreign direct investment, According to empirical analysis, we can see that exchange rate changes have the greatest impact on exports, and the degree of foreign direct investment is in the middle. The import equation is the least affected. Finally, the relationship between the exchange rate change and China's economic growth is obtained on the basis of the degree of influence of various variables: the rise of RMB exchange rate will lead to the decline of China's economic growth rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F124.1

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