中國服務業(yè)FDI空間溢出效應研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-15 20:37
【摘要】：近年來,中國服務業(yè)外商直接投資逐漸呈現(xiàn)超越制造業(yè)的發(fā)展勢頭,對于促進服務業(yè)總量增長及其結構優(yōu)化的作用已是舉足輕重。從而,服務業(yè)FDI的溢出效應日益引起學術界的廣泛關注。由于經濟體之間具有空間依賴(spatial dependence)特征,服務業(yè)FDI的溢出效應逐漸跨越地理邊界而形成空間擴散現(xiàn)象。但是,現(xiàn)有成果主要聚焦于某一地區(qū)內的FDI溢出效應探討,關于服務業(yè)FDI的空間溢出效應(spatial spillover effects)研究頗不多見。鑒于此,本文基于內生經濟增長理論的研究框架,采用2003-2012年空間面板數(shù)據(jù),構建了空間杜賓模型,并運用極大似然估計(ML)方法對中國服務業(yè)FDI的空間溢出效應進行了實證研究與檢驗。 具體而言,本文的研究可以展開為以下六個部分。第一章對本文的研究背景、意義以及思路進行闡述。第二章則回顧和整理與FDI空間溢出效應相關的國內外研究成果,并對此進行簡要的述評。第三章探討服務業(yè)外商直接投資空間溢出效應理論淵源及空間溢出的機理。第四章對我國服務業(yè)外商直接投資的空間分布狀況進行分析。第五章首先構建以服務業(yè)人均產出增長率為被解釋變量,以服務業(yè)FDI增長率、內資增長率、勞動力增長率作為解釋變量,以本地因素作為控制變量的空間效應模型,并予以空間自相關檢驗以及空間效應模型設定檢驗,進而在此基礎上進行極大似然回歸估計與模型穩(wěn)健性檢驗。第六章結合實證分析結果歸納本文研究結論,闡釋相關啟示與政策建議。 研究結果表明：首先,盡管我國的服務業(yè)FDI總量不斷增加且已成為FDI的主體部分,但依舊存在區(qū)域分布失衡與各地區(qū)產業(yè)分布不合理的現(xiàn)象；其次,不含空間效應的實證分析結果表明,該模型并不能合理反映包括服務業(yè)FDI在內的各要素所產生的經濟影響；最后,空間效應模型的估計結果顯示：服務業(yè)外商直接投資存在顯著的負向空間溢出效應,內資的功能則更多地體現(xiàn)在其對本地區(qū)經濟的帶動作用上。此外,服務業(yè)勞動力在量上的累積無益于本地與周邊地區(qū)的生產能力提升。而本地因素也會對地區(qū)內與鄰近地區(qū)服務業(yè)經濟的增長產生影響。結合本文的理論以及實證分析結果,筆者提出幾點政策建議：促進地區(qū)協(xié)調發(fā)展,減少地區(qū)之間惡性的引資競爭；推進東部地區(qū)產業(yè)升級與轉移,從而帶動外資的結構升級與區(qū)域轉移；鼓勵中部地區(qū)培養(yǎng)承接轉移產業(yè)與服務業(yè)外資的吸收能力；加大西部地區(qū)的政策扶持及地區(qū)幫扶力度。
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's service industry has gradually surmounted the development momentum of manufacturing industry, and has played an important role in promoting the growth of total service industry and its structure optimization. As a result, the spillover effect of service FDI has attracted more and more attention from academic circles. Due to the spatial dependence of (spatial dependence) between economies, the spillover effects of FDI in service industry gradually cross geographical boundaries and form spatial diffusion phenomenon. However, the existing results mainly focus on the FDI spillover effects in a certain region, and there are few studies on the spatial spillover effect of FDI in the service industry (spatial spillover effects). In view of this, based on the research framework of endogenous economic growth theory, the spatial Doberbin model is constructed by using the spatial panel data from 2003 to 2012. The spatial spillover effect of Chinese service industry FDI is studied and tested by using the maximum likelihood estimation (ML) method. Specifically, this study can be carried out in the following six parts. The first chapter describes the research background, significance and ideas of this paper. The second chapter reviews and summarizes the domestic and foreign research results related to FDI spatial spillover effects. Chapter three discusses the origin of spatial spillover effect of FDI in service industry and the mechanism of spatial spillover. The fourth chapter analyzes the spatial distribution of FDI in China's service industry. In the fifth chapter, we construct a spatial effect model with the per capita output growth rate of the service industry as the explained variable, the service industry FDI growth rate, the domestic capital growth rate and the labor growth rate as the explanatory variables, and the local factors as the controlling variables. Spatial autocorrelation test and spatial effect model setting test are given, and then maximum likelihood regression estimation and model robustness test are carried out. The sixth chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper with empirical analysis results, and explains the relevant enlightenment and policy recommendations. The results show that: first, although the total FDI of service industry in China has been increasing and has become the main part of FDI, there still exists the phenomenon of imbalance of regional distribution and unreasonable distribution of industries in different regions; Secondly, the empirical results without spatial effects show that the model can not reasonably reflect the economic impact of various factors, including the service industry FDI. Finally, the estimation results of spatial effect model show that FDI in service industry has significant negative spatial spillover effect, while the function of domestic investment is more reflected in its driving effect on local economy. Moreover, the accumulation of labour in the service sector does not contribute to the growth of local and surrounding production capacity. Local factors will also have an impact on the growth of the service economy in and around the region. Combined with the theoretical and empirical results of this paper, the author puts forward several policy suggestions: to promote the coordinated development of the region, reduce the vicious competition between regions; To promote industrial upgrading and transfer in the eastern region, so as to promote the structural upgrading and regional transfer of foreign capital; to encourage the central region to cultivate the ability to absorb foreign capital from the industry and service industries; and to increase policy support and regional support in the western region.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F719;F832.6
本文編號：2409081
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's service industry has gradually surmounted the development momentum of manufacturing industry, and has played an important role in promoting the growth of total service industry and its structure optimization. As a result, the spillover effect of service FDI has attracted more and more attention from academic circles. Due to the spatial dependence of (spatial dependence) between economies, the spillover effects of FDI in service industry gradually cross geographical boundaries and form spatial diffusion phenomenon. However, the existing results mainly focus on the FDI spillover effects in a certain region, and there are few studies on the spatial spillover effect of FDI in the service industry (spatial spillover effects). In view of this, based on the research framework of endogenous economic growth theory, the spatial Doberbin model is constructed by using the spatial panel data from 2003 to 2012. The spatial spillover effect of Chinese service industry FDI is studied and tested by using the maximum likelihood estimation (ML) method. Specifically, this study can be carried out in the following six parts. The first chapter describes the research background, significance and ideas of this paper. The second chapter reviews and summarizes the domestic and foreign research results related to FDI spatial spillover effects. Chapter three discusses the origin of spatial spillover effect of FDI in service industry and the mechanism of spatial spillover. The fourth chapter analyzes the spatial distribution of FDI in China's service industry. In the fifth chapter, we construct a spatial effect model with the per capita output growth rate of the service industry as the explained variable, the service industry FDI growth rate, the domestic capital growth rate and the labor growth rate as the explanatory variables, and the local factors as the controlling variables. Spatial autocorrelation test and spatial effect model setting test are given, and then maximum likelihood regression estimation and model robustness test are carried out. The sixth chapter summarizes the conclusions of this paper with empirical analysis results, and explains the relevant enlightenment and policy recommendations. The results show that: first, although the total FDI of service industry in China has been increasing and has become the main part of FDI, there still exists the phenomenon of imbalance of regional distribution and unreasonable distribution of industries in different regions; Secondly, the empirical results without spatial effects show that the model can not reasonably reflect the economic impact of various factors, including the service industry FDI. Finally, the estimation results of spatial effect model show that FDI in service industry has significant negative spatial spillover effect, while the function of domestic investment is more reflected in its driving effect on local economy. Moreover, the accumulation of labour in the service sector does not contribute to the growth of local and surrounding production capacity. Local factors will also have an impact on the growth of the service economy in and around the region. Combined with the theoretical and empirical results of this paper, the author puts forward several policy suggestions: to promote the coordinated development of the region, reduce the vicious competition between regions; To promote industrial upgrading and transfer in the eastern region, so as to promote the structural upgrading and regional transfer of foreign capital; to encourage the central region to cultivate the ability to absorb foreign capital from the industry and service industries; and to increase policy support and regional support in the western region.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F719;F832.6
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，本文編號：2409081
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