【摘要】：眾所周知,在能源、通信、運(yùn)輸、餐飲、主題公園、酒店等服務(wù)型企業(yè)中,需求通常遵循著波峰波谷的波動(dòng)模式。在高峰時(shí)期,需求由于服務(wù)容量的限制不能被完全滿足;在低谷時(shí)期,過(guò)多的服務(wù)容量又會(huì)導(dǎo)致人力物力的浪費(fèi)。因此,很多企業(yè)采用基于需求的服務(wù)容量分配決策來(lái)緩解需求波動(dòng)帶來(lái)的影響,從而提高資源利用率并提高盈利能力。然而,當(dāng)顧客的購(gòu)買決策受到社交互動(dòng)的影響時(shí),這種決策的有效性可能會(huì)隨之減弱。本文根據(jù)這種基于需求的服務(wù)容量分配決策,研究了在社會(huì)互動(dòng)存在時(shí),關(guān)于可重復(fù)購(gòu)買的服務(wù)的需求過(guò)程動(dòng)態(tài)系統(tǒng)。在本文的假設(shè)中,顧客是具有自適應(yīng)前瞻性的,并且已有顧客的重新購(gòu)買決策是基于前瞻性形成的期望效用與保留效用的。同時(shí),潛在顧客通過(guò)與已有顧客的社會(huì)互動(dòng)被吸引而購(gòu)買服務(wù)。我們將需求過(guò)程的特點(diǎn)用一個(gè)二維動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)描述出。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,需求系統(tǒng)的均衡點(diǎn)可能是存在不穩(wěn)定性的。在實(shí)驗(yàn)過(guò)程中,對(duì)于給定的保留效用分布函數(shù),我們首先分析社會(huì)互動(dòng)和顧客自適應(yīng)前瞻性行為在各種場(chǎng)景下的均衡點(diǎn)的穩(wěn)定性,然后使用分叉圖和Lyapunov指數(shù)來(lái)表征其混沌特性。結(jié)論說(shuō)明,需求過(guò)程可能是穩(wěn)定的,也可能是存在周期性的,甚至可能是混沌的。這意味著基于需求的服務(wù)容量分配決策的有效性可能受到社會(huì)互動(dòng)以及顧客自適應(yīng)前瞻性行為的影響而降低。論文最終的結(jié)果突出說(shuō)明為了使基于需求的服務(wù)容量分配策略有效,公司在制定決策時(shí)必須考慮社會(huì)互動(dòng)以及顧客前瞻性行為的影響。此外,服務(wù)型企業(yè)應(yīng)該努力在需求過(guò)程中占主導(dǎo)地位,通過(guò)自己的決策來(lái)引導(dǎo)顧客做出相應(yīng)的選擇,在需求系統(tǒng)不穩(wěn)定時(shí),這比被動(dòng)地根據(jù)顧客的需求量再進(jìn)行服務(wù)容量的調(diào)整更奏效。
[Abstract]:As we all know, in energy, communications, transportation, catering, theme parks, hotels and other service enterprises, demand usually follow the wave mode of wave trough. During the peak period, the demand can not be completely satisfied because of the limitation of service capacity; in the low period, too much service capacity will lead to the waste of manpower and material resources. Therefore, many enterprises adopt demand-based service capacity allocation decisions to mitigate the impact of demand fluctuations, thereby improving resource utilization and profitability. However, when the customer's purchase decision is affected by social interaction, the effectiveness of the decision may diminish. Based on the decision of capacity allocation of services based on demand, this paper studies the dynamic system of demand process for repurchased services when social interaction exists. In the assumption of this paper, the customer is self-adaptive and forward-looking, and the customer's repurchase decision is based on the prospective expected utility and retention utility. At the same time, potential customers are attracted to buy services through social interactions with existing customers. We describe the characteristics of the demand process with a two-dimensional dynamic system. The experimental results show that the equilibrium point of the demand system may be unstable. In the experiment, for a given retention utility distribution function, we first analyze the stability of the equilibrium points of social interaction and customer adaptive forward-looking behavior in various scenarios, and then use bifurcation graphs and Lyapunov exponents to characterize their chaotic properties. The conclusion shows that the demand process may be stable, periodic or even chaotic. This means that the effectiveness of demand-based service capacity allocation decisions may be affected by social interaction and customer adaptive forward-looking behavior. The final result of the paper highlights that in order to make the demand-based service capacity allocation strategy effective, companies must consider the impact of social interaction and customer forward-looking behavior when making decisions. In addition, service enterprises should strive to dominate in the process of demand, through their own decisions to guide customers to make the corresponding choices, when the demand system is unstable, This is more effective than passively adjusting service capacity according to customer demand.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F719

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