本文關(guān)鍵詞： 現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè) 政策效應(yīng) 空間統(tǒng)計(jì) 溢出性　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的逐步轉(zhuǎn)型，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)大幅度改革并逐步升級(jí)完善，現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的深入研究對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及空間集聚效應(yīng)演變的作用十分顯著。在當(dāng)前學(xué)術(shù)界，對(duì)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)的空間集聚效應(yīng)的相關(guān)研究成果很多，但針對(duì)一個(gè)地區(qū)的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)的相關(guān)研究尚不多見，對(duì)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)的系統(tǒng)分析，并將空間相關(guān)性這一影響因素融入一個(gè)地區(qū)的政策效應(yīng)體系的相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)更不多見。本論文的研究目的和研究任務(wù)是基于當(dāng)前中國(guó)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展愿景的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建較為完整的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)政策體系，以江西省鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)為研究對(duì)象，通過政策理論分析與實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合探究鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)空間集聚特征與當(dāng)?shù)卣咝?yīng)的內(nèi)在機(jī)理。 論文主要研究?jī)?nèi)容分五大部分，第一部分包括緒論和現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)的相關(guān)內(nèi)涵、分類和范圍界定及現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策相關(guān)理論分析。根據(jù)鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)當(dāng)前發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，論文第二部分將做系統(tǒng)概括分析，通過描述性方法對(duì)鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)當(dāng)前的規(guī)模水平做出評(píng)價(jià)，根據(jù)鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)條件闡述該地區(qū)的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制發(fā)展改革完善的貢獻(xiàn)與效果。第三部分是對(duì)鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策進(jìn)行效應(yīng)測(cè)度，通過常用效應(yīng)測(cè)度方法的比較，選用超效率DEA方法對(duì)鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，具體測(cè)算2005-2010年鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)31個(gè)縣市的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策的效應(yīng)值，得出結(jié)論：鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的政策效應(yīng)并沒有隨著時(shí)間的推移有所改良，，對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)氐默F(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響效果不顯著。通過模型測(cè)算的該地區(qū)各縣市的效應(yīng)值比較可以發(fā)現(xiàn)政策效應(yīng)的空間聚集特征顯著，這一結(jié)論表明鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)具有溢出效應(yīng)，該地區(qū)的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展存在空間相關(guān)性，通過空間相關(guān)性角度考察鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)具有實(shí)踐價(jià)值。 第四部分根據(jù)鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展特征分別從內(nèi)在因素和外在因素兩個(gè)方面選取該地區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策的衡量指標(biāo)，通過GeoDa軟件計(jì)算鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策的Moran's I值并描繪其政策效應(yīng)值散點(diǎn)圖，提出鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)的空間相關(guān)性顯著的特征。據(jù)此，通過構(gòu)建空間滯后模型和空間誤差模型，選取政策質(zhì)量因素、政策民主化因素、體制因素和認(rèn)識(shí)因素等指標(biāo)作為模型的解釋變量，將鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)各縣市的現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)作為被解釋變量，對(duì)該地區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)影響因素的空間自相關(guān)性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)政策體系中的體制因素和政策質(zhì)量因素對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)氐默F(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展具有顯著的促進(jìn)作用，而認(rèn)識(shí)因素（即對(duì)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的重視程度）需要時(shí)間的積累，將在未來發(fā)展期間有一定的助推能力。 第五部分是根據(jù)三、四部分中現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)測(cè)算及溢出性特征測(cè)度結(jié)果而得出的相關(guān)結(jié)論，并為提升鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)提出實(shí)踐性建議，包括三個(gè)方面：一、提升政策質(zhì)量，權(quán)衡各方利益。主要根據(jù)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展特征，結(jié)合政策質(zhì)量因素和政策民主化因素等相關(guān)模型指標(biāo)對(duì)政策效應(yīng)的影響程度所提出的政策建議。二、科學(xué)改革政策體制，重視市場(chǎng)資源配置。基于鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型及模型變量體制因素對(duì)該地區(qū)政策效應(yīng)的綜合影響考慮，提出對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)卣唧w制的改革必要性，重視服務(wù)業(yè)的人力資源對(duì)市場(chǎng)建設(shè)的影響，政策對(duì)信息服務(wù)業(yè)重點(diǎn)扶持具有長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)價(jià)值。三、明確現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展前景，重視現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的貢獻(xiàn)。根據(jù)模型變量認(rèn)識(shí)因素對(duì)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應(yīng)的影響效果表明，當(dāng)?shù)卣畬?duì)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)的重視程度不高，對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)認(rèn)知不夠，提倡政府重視現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)與第一、二產(chǎn)業(yè)的緊密結(jié)合，提升通信、金融和物流等現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的支撐力度，重視現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益。
[Abstract]:With the gradual transformation of China market economy, industrial structure greatly reform and gradually upgrade, in-depth study of the development of modern service industry on regional economic growth and spatial agglomeration evolution is very significant. In the current academic circles, many related research achievements of the modern service industry agglomeration effect of space, but the research for a the development of modern service industry policy is still rare, systematic analysis of the development of modern service industry policy effect, and will see more relevant research documents the impact of spatial correlation factors into a system of regional policy effect. The purpose of this research and the research task is based on the current development of Chinese the modern service industry present situation and the development of vision on the construction of modern service industry policy system more complete, to the modern service of Jiangxi province Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Industry The purpose of the study is to explore the spatial mechanism of the modern service industry in Poyang Lake eco economic zone and the internal mechanism of the local policy effect through the combination of policy analysis and empirical research.
The main content of this thesis is divided into five parts. The first part includes the introduction and the connotation of the modern service industry, the relevant theoretical analysis and define the scope and classification of policies for the development of modern service industry. According to the modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is the current state of development, the second part will do system analysis, through the descriptive methods of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake the level of modern service industry and the current scale of evaluation, according to the basic conditions of modern service industry development in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is the area of the development of modern service industry contribution to the development of the whole economic system reform and perfect effect. The third part is the policy for the development of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone of modern service industry by comparing the effect of measure, measure common effect, using super efficiency DEA method on the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry demonstration Analysis of effect of the development of policy of 31 counties in 2005-2010 years to calculate the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry value, draw the conclusion: the policy effect of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake over time did not improve effect on the local development of modern service industry is not significant. Compared the policy effect of spatial aggregation characteristics the model estimates the significant effect of cities and counties of the value, the conclusion indicates that the effect of policies for the development of modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has a spillover effect, the area of modern service industry development in the spatial correlation, the spatial correlation of the perspective effect of modern service industry development policy of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has practical value.
The fourth part according to the measure of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry development features two aspects respectively from the internal and external factors from the area of modern service industry development policy, through the calculation of the GeoDa software development policy of modern service industry in the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake Moran's I and describe its policy effect value plot, spatial correlation characteristics the modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone development policy effect significantly. Therefore, by constructing the spatial lag model and spatial error model, selection of quality policy factors, democratic policy factors, institutional factors and cognitive factors and other indicators as independent variables of the model, the effect of the development of the policy of each county Ecological Economic Zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry as explanatory variables, impact on the modern service industry in the region development policy effect factors of the spatial autocorrelation of inspection Test, test results show that the model has a significant role in promoting the development of modern service industry quality factors institutional factors of modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone policy system and the policy of local, and understanding of the factors (the degree of attention to the development of modern service industry) need time to accumulate, there will be a boost capacity in the future during the period of development.
The fifth part is based on the three, the related conclusion effect of modern service industry development policy in the four part the estimates and the overflow of characteristic measurement findings, and to enhance the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry development policy effect put forward some practical suggestions, including three aspects: first, enhance the quality of policy, weigh the interests of all parties. According to the modern the development of service industry characteristics, the impact model index with the policy quality factors and policy factors on the democratization of policy effect policy recommendations. Two, scientific reform policy system, pay attention to market allocation of resources. The economic structure adjustment of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Based on the comprehensive consideration of influence of transformation and the variables of the model system of industrial structure the effects of policies in the region, put forward the reform necessity of local policies, pay attention to the service industry influence human resources market construction The policy of information service industry, the key support has long-term value. Three, clear prospects for the development of modern service industry, attaches great importance to the development of modern service industry contribution. According to the effect factors on the understanding of the variables of the model of modern service industry development policy, the local government attaches great importance to the modern service industry is not high, the lack of the internal structure of the service industry cognition, closely, advocate the government attaches great importance to the modern service industry and the first, second industry to enhance communication, financial support and logistics and other modern service industry to other industries, pay attention to the development of modern service industry in the development of the local economy's long-term interests.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F719;F224

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