本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國服務(wù)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率測算及鮑莫爾“成本病”檢驗(yàn)　出處：《山西師范大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 服務(wù)業(yè)增加值 全要素生產(chǎn)率 成本病 異質(zhì)性產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)

【摘要】：在面對(duì)國內(nèi)外復(fù)雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下,我國進(jìn)入穩(wěn)增長、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、惠民生的新常態(tài)時(shí)期,甚至有學(xué)者指出,我國在2016年將要或甚至正在面臨“劉易斯拐點(diǎn)”。在國家“十三五”規(guī)劃中明確提出,實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化服務(wù)關(guān)鍵要把握產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型,而經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)主要在于形成以服務(wù)業(yè)為主體的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)過30年的高速發(fā)展,2012年增加值總額首次超過第二產(chǎn)業(yè)(1),但是增長的背后原因是什么?增長質(zhì)量又如何?增長動(dòng)力來源于資本、勞動(dòng)等要素的投入還是全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高?我國服務(wù)業(yè)是否真的存在鮑莫爾“成本病”?十八屆五中全會(huì)也明確提出要轉(zhuǎn)變依靠物資資源消耗為依靠勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的提高,通過提高TFP來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是必經(jīng)之路。所以研究服務(wù)業(yè)以及服務(wù)業(yè)各細(xì)分行業(yè)TFP及其分解的異質(zhì)性,并檢驗(yàn)鮑莫爾“成本病”是理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)的需要。本文旨在已有的研究基礎(chǔ)上,借助計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,考察中國服務(wù)業(yè)及其分行業(yè)TFP增長及差異情況,尋找服務(wù)業(yè)TFP增長的源泉,檢驗(yàn)是否存在鮑莫爾“成本病”。本文首先通過與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)比,從投入規(guī)模和產(chǎn)出規(guī)模分析我國服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及問題,并對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)細(xì)分行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和問題進(jìn)行描述性分析;其次采用數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)(DEA)的Malmquist指數(shù)法,收集1993-2014年第三次經(jīng)濟(jì)普查后的面板數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)1993-2002及2004-2014年我國服務(wù)業(yè)及其細(xì)分行業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)行全面、客觀的測算,同時(shí)進(jìn)行穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),分析了我國服務(wù)業(yè)及其細(xì)分行業(yè)的TFP增長率及其分解的特征;最后在測算的TFP基礎(chǔ)上,通過與工業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)行對(duì)比,檢驗(yàn)鮑莫爾“成本病”。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于采用數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)(DEA)的Malmquist指數(shù)法,對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)三大細(xì)分行業(yè)TFP及其分解進(jìn)行測算對(duì)比,考察其異質(zhì)性,擴(kuò)展了數(shù)據(jù),并以此為依托檢驗(yàn)了鮑莫爾“成本病”。最終得出對(duì)于服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展滯后的我國,存在鮑莫爾“成本病”,增長額背后動(dòng)力來源于資本、勞動(dòng)等要素的投入,而不是全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高。從時(shí)間趨勢看,服務(wù)業(yè)TFP增長率呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,甚至出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長。從TFP分解來看,增長主要依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步,技術(shù)效率較低,仍有挖掘資源和技術(shù)的潛力。服務(wù)業(yè)各細(xì)分行業(yè)TFP增長表現(xiàn)出較大的行業(yè)異質(zhì)性,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的TFP下降得最快,但增長率仍大于消費(fèi)性服務(wù)業(yè),差距在逐漸縮小;消費(fèi)性TFP也呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,行業(yè)的TFP異質(zhì)性最大;公共服務(wù)業(yè)TFP不降反升,TFP異質(zhì)性最小。根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果,本文從加強(qiáng)經(jīng)營管理和監(jiān)督力度,充分利用行業(yè)異質(zhì)性特點(diǎn),加快發(fā)展生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)等方面提出促進(jìn)服務(wù)業(yè)更高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的措施。
[Abstract]:In the face of complex economic situation at home and abroad, China has entered a new normal period of steady growth, restructuring and people's livelihood. Even some scholars have pointed out that China will face or even face Lewis turning point in 2016. Clearly stated in the national "13th Five-Year" plan, to realize the modernization of the key to grasping the service industry and economic transformation, economic transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure mainly lies in the formation of service industry as the main body. The service industry after 30 years of rapid development, a total of more than second of industrial added value in 2012 for the first time (1), but what is the reason behind the increase of the quality of growth? How? Growth momentum comes into capital, labor and other factors or total factor productivity? Ballmer has "cost disease" is our service in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee also clearly put forward to change? Rely on material resource consumption on the improvement of labor productivity by improving the TFP to promote economic growth is the only way which must be passed. Therefore, it is a theoretical and practical need to study the heterogeneity of TFP and its decomposition in service industry and service industry, and to test Baumol's "cost disease". The purpose of this paper is to research on the existing basis, using econometric methods, study China service industry and TFP growth and the difference of industry, the source of TFP in service industry growth, test the existence of Ballmer "cost disease". Firstly, with the first and second industry comparison, from the investment scale and the scale analysis of the current situation and problems of China's service industry development, descriptive analysis of current situation and problems of the development of service industry; secondly, using data envelopment (DEA) of the Malmquist index method, the panel data collected 1993-2014 years of the third economic census the comprehensive and objective measure of total factor productivity of 1993-2002 and 2004-2014 years of China's service industry and industry segments, and robustness test, analysis of China's service industry and its sub industry TFP growth and its decomposition characteristics; finally based on TFP estimates, compared with the industrial total factor productivity inspection, Baumol "cost disease". The innovation of this paper is using the Malmquist index method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate and compare the TFP and its decomposition of the three major sectors of the service industry, to investigate the heterogeneity and expand the data, and to test Baumol's "cost disease" based on this. Eventually come to China for the development of service industry lags behind, there are Ballmer "cost disease", increase the amount of investment in the power source behind capital, labor and other factors, rather than total factor productivity. In terms of the trend of time, the growth rate of TFP in service industry is declining, even negative growth. From the point of view of TFP decomposition, the growth depends mainly on technological progress, low technical efficiency, and the potential of mining resources and technology. The subdivision of service industry TFP growth showed a greater difference of industry, producer services TFP decreased quickly, but the growth rate is still higher than the consumer services, gradually narrowing the gap in consumption; TFP also showed a downward trend in the industry heterogeneity of TFP; public service industry TFP not fall TFP, minimum heterogeneity. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward measures to promote the development of producer services in higher quality by strengthening management and supervision, making full use of the heterogeneity of industries and accelerating the development of producer services.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F719

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 帥建波,陳璋;威廉·鮑莫爾經(jīng)濟(jì)理論思想評(píng)介[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);1998年02期

2 ;文化產(chǎn)業(yè)還需警惕“鮑莫爾病” 魏鵬舉：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)文化創(chuàng)意研究院執(zhí)行院長[J];世界發(fā)明;2007年09期

3 何勇;;新技術(shù)下服務(wù)產(chǎn)品“虛擬化”探究[J];商業(yè)研究;2011年08期

4 卿前龍;陳昭;胡躍紅;;服務(wù)業(yè):“鮑莫爾病”還是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)?——美國的經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)及其對(duì)中國的啟示[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年05期

5 楊戈;;馬克思關(guān)于價(jià)值轉(zhuǎn)化的真實(shí)含意——對(duì)鮑莫爾關(guān)于馬克思轉(zhuǎn)化理論含意分析的評(píng)述[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2006年03期

6 王耀中;陳潔;;鮑莫爾-富克斯假說研究新進(jìn)展[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);2012年06期

7 譚硯文;溫思美;汪曉銀;;中、日、美服務(wù)業(yè)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長促進(jìn)作用的比較分析[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2007年12期

8 靖學(xué)青;;京滬服務(wù)業(yè)增長比較分析[J];城市問題;2012年09期

9 丁雙鳳;;廣州市服務(wù)業(yè)“成本病”研究[J];今日科苑;2010年10期

10 邱小歡;;我國東部地區(qū)服務(wù)業(yè)增長特征分析:對(duì)鮑莫爾“成本病”的檢驗(yàn)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問題探索;2010年06期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前4條

1 美國紐約大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授、普林斯頓大學(xué)名譽(yù)教授 威廉·鮑莫爾;客觀看待“鮑莫爾成本病”[N];人民日?qǐng)?bào);2013年

2 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)文化創(chuàng)意研究院執(zhí)行院長 魏鵬舉;“鮑莫爾病”與文化生產(chǎn)力[N];經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào);2007年

3 新華社記者 丁宜;把中國“拉離”發(fā)展中國家,實(shí)為損人利己[N];新華每日電訊;2010年

4 新華社記者 采訪記者 王湘江　顧震球 魏良磊 劉曉燕 執(zhí)筆記者 張碧弘 王丹蒂;中國的發(fā)展中國家屬性沒有改變[N];新華每日電訊;2010年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 何勇;服務(wù)業(yè)在產(chǎn)業(yè)變遷中作用的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析[D];遼寧大學(xué);2011年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 楊慧芳;中國服務(wù)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率測算及鮑莫爾“成本病”檢驗(yàn)[D];山西師范大學(xué);2016年

，

本文編號(hào)：1341872