本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國服務業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率測算及鮑莫爾“成本病”檢驗　出處：《山西師范大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：在面對國內(nèi)外復雜的經(jīng)濟形勢下,我國進入穩(wěn)增長、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、惠民生的新常態(tài)時期,甚至有學者指出,我國在2016年將要或甚至正在面臨“劉易斯拐點”。在國家“十三五”規(guī)劃中明確提出,實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化服務關(guān)鍵要把握產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型,而經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型升級主要在于形成以服務業(yè)為主體的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。服務業(yè)經(jīng)過30年的高速發(fā)展,2012年增加值總額首次超過第二產(chǎn)業(yè)(1),但是增長的背后原因是什么?增長質(zhì)量又如何?增長動力來源于資本、勞動等要素的投入還是全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高?我國服務業(yè)是否真的存在鮑莫爾“成本病”?十八屆五中全會也明確提出要轉(zhuǎn)變依靠物資資源消耗為依靠勞動生產(chǎn)率的提高,通過提高TFP來促進經(jīng)濟增長是必經(jīng)之路。所以研究服務業(yè)以及服務業(yè)各細分行業(yè)TFP及其分解的異質(zhì)性,并檢驗鮑莫爾“成本病”是理論和現(xiàn)實的需要。本文旨在已有的研究基礎(chǔ)上,借助計量經(jīng)濟學方法,考察中國服務業(yè)及其分行業(yè)TFP增長及差異情況,尋找服務業(yè)TFP增長的源泉,檢驗是否存在鮑莫爾“成本病”。本文首先通過與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對比,從投入規(guī)模和產(chǎn)出規(guī)模分析我國服務業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及問題,并對服務業(yè)細分行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和問題進行描述性分析;其次采用數(shù)據(jù)包絡(DEA)的Malmquist指數(shù)法,收集1993-2014年第三次經(jīng)濟普查后的面板數(shù)據(jù),對1993-2002及2004-2014年我國服務業(yè)及其細分行業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率進行全面、客觀的測算,同時進行穩(wěn)健性檢驗,分析了我國服務業(yè)及其細分行業(yè)的TFP增長率及其分解的特征;最后在測算的TFP基礎(chǔ)上,通過與工業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率進行對比,檢驗鮑莫爾“成本病”。本文的創(chuàng)新點在于采用數(shù)據(jù)包絡(DEA)的Malmquist指數(shù)法,對服務業(yè)三大細分行業(yè)TFP及其分解進行測算對比,考察其異質(zhì)性,擴展了數(shù)據(jù),并以此為依托檢驗了鮑莫爾“成本病”。最終得出對于服務業(yè)發(fā)展滯后的我國,存在鮑莫爾“成本病”,增長額背后動力來源于資本、勞動等要素的投入,而不是全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高。從時間趨勢看,服務業(yè)TFP增長率呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,甚至出現(xiàn)負增長。從TFP分解來看,增長主要依靠技術(shù)進步,技術(shù)效率較低,仍有挖掘資源和技術(shù)的潛力。服務業(yè)各細分行業(yè)TFP增長表現(xiàn)出較大的行業(yè)異質(zhì)性,生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)的TFP下降得最快,但增長率仍大于消費性服務業(yè),差距在逐漸縮小;消費性TFP也呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,行業(yè)的TFP異質(zhì)性最大;公共服務業(yè)TFP不降反升,TFP異質(zhì)性最小。根據(jù)實證結(jié)果,本文從加強經(jīng)營管理和監(jiān)督力度,充分利用行業(yè)異質(zhì)性特點,加快發(fā)展生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)等方面提出促進服務業(yè)更高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的措施。
[Abstract]:In the face of complex economic situation at home and abroad, China has entered a new normal period of steady growth, restructuring and people's livelihood. Even some scholars have pointed out that China will face or even face Lewis turning point in 2016. Clearly stated in the national "13th Five-Year" plan, to realize the modernization of the key to grasping the service industry and economic transformation, economic transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure mainly lies in the formation of service industry as the main body. The service industry after 30 years of rapid development, a total of more than second of industrial added value in 2012 for the first time (1), but what is the reason behind the increase of the quality of growth? How? Growth momentum comes into capital, labor and other factors or total factor productivity? Ballmer has "cost disease" is our service in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee also clearly put forward to change? Rely on material resource consumption on the improvement of labor productivity by improving the TFP to promote economic growth is the only way which must be passed. Therefore, it is a theoretical and practical need to study the heterogeneity of TFP and its decomposition in service industry and service industry, and to test Baumol's "cost disease". The purpose of this paper is to research on the existing basis, using econometric methods, study China service industry and TFP growth and the difference of industry, the source of TFP in service industry growth, test the existence of Ballmer "cost disease". Firstly, with the first and second industry comparison, from the investment scale and the scale analysis of the current situation and problems of China's service industry development, descriptive analysis of current situation and problems of the development of service industry; secondly, using data envelopment (DEA) of the Malmquist index method, the panel data collected 1993-2014 years of the third economic census the comprehensive and objective measure of total factor productivity of 1993-2002 and 2004-2014 years of China's service industry and industry segments, and robustness test, analysis of China's service industry and its sub industry TFP growth and its decomposition characteristics; finally based on TFP estimates, compared with the industrial total factor productivity inspection, Baumol "cost disease". The innovation of this paper is using the Malmquist index method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate and compare the TFP and its decomposition of the three major sectors of the service industry, to investigate the heterogeneity and expand the data, and to test Baumol's "cost disease" based on this. Eventually come to China for the development of service industry lags behind, there are Ballmer "cost disease", increase the amount of investment in the power source behind capital, labor and other factors, rather than total factor productivity. In terms of the trend of time, the growth rate of TFP in service industry is declining, even negative growth. From the point of view of TFP decomposition, the growth depends mainly on technological progress, low technical efficiency, and the potential of mining resources and technology. The subdivision of service industry TFP growth showed a greater difference of industry, producer services TFP decreased quickly, but the growth rate is still higher than the consumer services, gradually narrowing the gap in consumption; TFP also showed a downward trend in the industry heterogeneity of TFP; public service industry TFP not fall TFP, minimum heterogeneity. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward measures to promote the development of producer services in higher quality by strengthening management and supervision, making full use of the heterogeneity of industries and accelerating the development of producer services.
【學位授予單位】：山西師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F719

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