【摘要】：21世紀以來,我國居民消費價格指數(shù)的波動幅度變大,基本呈上升趨勢,食品、煙酒、衣著、家庭設(shè)備等八大類居民消費價格指數(shù)的波動特征也各不相同,而且農(nóng)村的居民消費價格指數(shù)持續(xù)高于城市。這些不僅嚴重影響到我國居民的正常生活消費,而且也大大制約著我國經(jīng)濟的全面健康發(fā)展。因此,有必要對我國食品、煙酒等八大類以及城鄉(xiāng)居民消費價格指數(shù)之間主要影響因素的差異性進行研究。立足新時期,本文基于資產(chǎn)價格、家庭脆弱性和人民幣指數(shù)等因素進行比較分析,以期對我國居民消費價格指數(shù)的影響因素有更為清晰的了解和認識。本文首先運用廣義矩估計(GMM)方法,將收入、利率和人民幣指數(shù)作為控制變量,重點研究資產(chǎn)價格和家庭脆弱性等因素對全國居民消費價格指數(shù)的影響程度。結(jié)果表明：總體與八大類居民消費價格指數(shù)的影響因素基本趨同、略有差異。居民消費價格指數(shù)具有較強的短期持續(xù)性,尤其是在食品、醫(yī)療、教育和住房這四類當(dāng)中；資產(chǎn)價格對居民消費價格指數(shù)有顯著的推動作用,而且房地產(chǎn)價格的影響程度大于股票價格；家庭脆弱性和人民幣指數(shù)也會對居民消費價格指數(shù)產(chǎn)生較大影響�；谫Y產(chǎn)價格和家庭脆弱性這兩個重要因素,本文接著又對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費價格指數(shù)及其八大類的影響因素進行了比較分析。研究結(jié)果顯示,城市和農(nóng)村居民消費價格指數(shù)的影響因素存在顯著差異性。與城市居民消費價格指數(shù)相比,農(nóng)村居民消費價格指數(shù)不僅受到其自身短期持續(xù)性的較大沖擊,還受到資產(chǎn)價格和家庭脆弱性的顯著影響,特別是在衣著、住房、交通和教育四類居民消費價格指數(shù)上。因此,本文的研究從根本上把握了居民消費價格指數(shù)的波動趨勢及影響因素,為我國降低居民消費價格水平、縮小城鄉(xiāng)居民消費價格指數(shù)差距,提供了切實可靠的參考依據(jù),具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, the fluctuation range of consumer price index of Chinese residents has become larger, basically showing an upward trend, and the fluctuation characteristics of consumer price index of eight categories of residents, such as food, tobacco and alcohol, clothing, household equipment, etc., are also different. Moreover, the consumer price index of rural residents continues to be higher than that of cities. These not only seriously affect the normal living consumption of Chinese residents, but also greatly restrict the overall and healthy development of our economy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the differences of eight categories of food, tobacco and alcohol, as well as the main influencing factors between urban and rural residents' consumer price index. Based on the new period, this paper makes a comparative analysis based on asset price, family vulnerability and RMB index, in order to have a clearer understanding and understanding of the influencing factors of consumer price index of Chinese residents. In this paper, the generalized moment estimation (GMM) method is used to take the income, interest rate and RMB index as the control variables, and the influence of asset price and household vulnerability on the consumer price index of the whole country is studied. The results show that the influencing factors of consumer price index are basically the same and slightly different from those of the eight categories of residents. The consumer price index has a strong short-term sustainability, especially in the four categories of food, health care, education and housing; Asset price plays a significant role in promoting consumer price index, and the influence of real estate price is greater than that of stock price, and household vulnerability and RMB index will also have a great impact on consumer price index. Based on the two important factors of asset price and family vulnerability, this paper then makes a comparative analysis of the consumer price index of urban and rural residents and its eight categories of influencing factors. The results show that there are significant differences in the influencing factors of consumer price index between urban and rural residents. Compared with the consumer price index of urban residents, the consumer price index of rural residents is not only greatly impacted by their own short-term sustainability, but also significantly affected by asset prices and household vulnerability, especially in clothing and housing. On the consumer price index of four categories of residents in transport and education. Therefore, the study of this paper fundamentally grasps the fluctuation trend and influencing factors of the consumer price index of the residents, and provides a practical and reliable reference for reducing the level of the consumer price of the residents and narrowing the gap between the consumer price index of the urban and rural residents in our country. It has important practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F726

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李勇輝;王麗艷;;當(dāng)前我國通貨膨脹的成因及對策研究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟管理;2013年08期

2 張成思;;中國通脹慣性特征與貨幣政策啟示[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2008年02期

3 于長永;何劍;;脆弱性概念、分析框架與農(nóng)民養(yǎng)老脆弱性分析[J];農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟;2011年08期

4 付云鵬;馬樹才;宋琪;;我國房價波動與宏觀經(jīng)濟指數(shù)波動關(guān)系的實證研究——基于VAR模型的實證分析[J];價格理論與實踐;2013年04期

5 謝太峰;路偉;;我國貨幣供應(yīng)量與物價關(guān)系的實證分析[J];金融理論與實踐;2013年06期

6 閻虎勤;羅凱;;貨幣供應(yīng)、貨幣流通與通貨膨脹:自經(jīng)濟變量找尋[J];改革;2010年12期

7 韓立巖;劉蘭芬;;人民幣指數(shù)及其信息價值[J];世界經(jīng)濟;2008年12期

8 何維煒;田皓;;居民消費價格指數(shù)影響因素分析[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2007年23期

9 葛翔宇;宋志秀;俞凡;;利率、匯率、經(jīng)濟增長與通貨膨脹關(guān)系的統(tǒng)計檢驗[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2013年09期

10 李志蕓;;我國貨幣供應(yīng)量與經(jīng)濟總量、物價水平關(guān)系的研究[J];時代金融;2013年30期

，

本文編號：2480368