【摘要】：近年來，隨著越來越多的人進入適婚年齡，房地產(chǎn)價格也引發(fā)了越來越多的關(guān)注，2013年剛剛出臺的“國五條”也是激起了媒體的熱烈討論，到底是政府對房價太過敏，還是房地產(chǎn)確實存在問題需要政策進行調(diào)控�；谥袊康禺a(chǎn)目前的情況，就房地產(chǎn)與宏觀經(jīng)濟的互動機制，本文對以下幾個方面進行了探索：第一，構(gòu)造了房價與宏觀經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)的協(xié)整模型，得到了關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)與宏觀經(jīng)濟的長期均衡關(guān)系，并得出我國的房價的上漲是有經(jīng)濟基本面支撐的。這一部分主要探索了房價的宏觀經(jīng)濟決定。第二，我們主要研究房地產(chǎn)市場波動對宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響。我們選取了消費水平與經(jīng)濟增長兩個指標(biāo)代表宏觀經(jīng)濟的運行情況，我們采用向量自回歸模型，利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)與方差分解的手段分別研究了房價波動對我國消費水平的影響研究，以及房地產(chǎn)投資波動對我國經(jīng)濟增長的影響研究，得出了房地產(chǎn)的波動會導(dǎo)致宏觀經(jīng)濟的較大波動的結(jié)論。第三，我們回顧了我國房地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展歷史，同時對政府關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)的調(diào)控政策進行了簡單的梳理；最后，，對于政策調(diào)控，并相應(yīng)提出了幾點建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as more and more people have reached marriageable age, real estate prices have attracted more and more attention. The "National five rules" just introduced in 2013 have aroused heated discussion in the media, whether the government is too allergic to house prices. Or real estate problems really need to be controlled by the policy. Based on the current situation of real estate in China, this paper explores the interaction mechanism between real estate and macro economy in the following aspects: first, a cointegration model of housing price and macroeconomic indicators is constructed. The long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate and macro-economy is obtained, and it is concluded that the rise of house prices in china is supported by economic fundamentals. This part mainly explores the macro-economic decision of house price. Second, we mainly study the impact of real estate market fluctuations on the macro-economy. We choose the consumption level and economic growth to represent the macroeconomic performance, we use the vector autoregressive model. By means of impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper studies the impact of house price fluctuation on consumption level in China, and the impact of real estate investment fluctuation on China's economic growth. This paper draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of real estate will lead to the larger fluctuation of macro economy. Thirdly, we review the development history of real estate in our country, at the same time, we make a simple combing of the government's regulation and control policy on real estate. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for the policy regulation and control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F124;F299.23

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