【摘要】：預測就是根據(jù)歷史推測未來，，是一種對未來的探索行為。經(jīng)濟預測作為預測的一個分支，是預測理論和方法在經(jīng)濟領域中的應用。經(jīng)濟預測研究的主要內(nèi)容包括生產(chǎn)和資源預測、市場預測、人們生活消費預測、商業(yè)企業(yè)商品銷量預測等。經(jīng)濟預測可以幫助企業(yè)做出正確的投資決策使其更容易實現(xiàn)利潤最大化的目標。神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測方法在經(jīng)濟預測中已經(jīng)得到了廣泛的應用。比如在國際石油價格的預測、金融衍生品定價預測、商業(yè)企業(yè)商品銷量預測、房地產(chǎn)銷售價格預測等方面都應用了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測方法。本文主要研究了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測方法基本理論和模型，在此基礎上應用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測方法解決了X眼鏡公司銷售預測的實際問題。 本文第一部分簡述了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡在國內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀以及本文的研究線路。第二部分對X眼鏡公司的銷售管理現(xiàn)狀進行分析，指出目前X眼鏡公司在銷售管理中存在的問題，證明銷售預測的必要性。第三部分進行了經(jīng)濟預測以及有關神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡理論的概述。第四部分說明了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡模型結構上的設計以及使用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡工具箱建立神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡模型的步驟。第五部分以X眼鏡公司太陽鏡銷售預測為例，通過收集和分析X眼鏡公司太陽鏡歷年銷售數(shù)據(jù)，然后運用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡預測方法解決X眼鏡公司太陽鏡銷售量預測的問題。以此幫助企業(yè)系統(tǒng)地進行銷售預測，并且輔助企業(yè)管理者制定出合理的銷售計劃。第六部分總結了本文的研究成果并指出研究中的不足，對未來提出展望。
[Abstract]:Prediction is to speculate the future according to the history, is a kind of exploration behavior to the future. As a branch of forecasting, economic forecasting is the application of forecasting theory and method in economic field. The main content of the economic forecast research includes production and resource forecast, market forecast, people's living consumption forecast, commercial enterprise commodity sales forecast and so on. Economic forecasting can help enterprises to make the right investment decisions to make it easier to achieve the goal of profit maximization. Neural network prediction method has been widely used in economic forecasting. For example, in the international oil price prediction, financial derivatives pricing forecast, commercial enterprise commodity sales forecast, real estate sales price prediction and other aspects of the application of neural network forecasting methods. In this paper, the basic theory and model of the neural network prediction method are studied, and the practical problem of the X glasses company's sales forecast is solved by using the neural network forecast method. The first part of this paper briefly describes the research status of neural networks at home and abroad and the research route of this paper. The second part analyzes the present situation of sales management in X glasses company, points out the problems existing in the sales management of X glasses company, and proves the necessity of sales forecast. The third part carries on the economic forecast as well as the related neural network theory summary. The fourth part describes the design of the neural network model and the steps of using the neural network toolbox to build the neural network model. The fifth part takes X glasses company sunglasses sales forecast as an example, through collecting and analyzing the sales data of X glasses company sunglasses over the years, and then using neural network forecast method to solve the problem of X glasses company sunglasses sales forecast. In order to help enterprises to systematically predict sales, and assist enterprise managers to develop a reasonable sales plan. The sixth part summarizes the research results and points out the shortcomings of the research, and puts forward the prospects for the future.
【學位授予單位】：重慶理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP183;F724.2

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