金融危機(jī)背景下國際資本流動對我國金融穩(wěn)定影響研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-28 17:04
【摘要】：幾乎每十年就要發(fā)生一次的金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)成為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展的陣痛，1997年東南亞金融危機(jī)帶給世界的心理陰影尚未完全消散，2007年爆發(fā)的美國次貸危機(jī)接踵而至，最終演變?yōu)槿蚪鹑谖C(jī)，給多個國家?guī)砹藝?yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。雖然歷次金融危機(jī)發(fā)生的原因不盡相同，但近幾次危機(jī)的產(chǎn)生與全球金融自由化和國際資本的自由流動密切相關(guān)。東南亞金融危機(jī)前，國際資本大量涌入東南亞新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家，推高了名義匯率和物價(jià)，造成股市和房地產(chǎn)市場的虛假繁榮，最終有預(yù)謀的對沖基金集中攻擊引發(fā)了這場金融危機(jī)。2007年開始的金融危機(jī)至今還影響著全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，大量國際資本撤回本土挽救本國經(jīng)濟(jì)，給新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家?guī)硪欢ǔ潭鹊挠绊�，我國目前也出現(xiàn)了國際資本撤離我國制造業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)象，這是一種危險(xiǎn)的信號。隨著美國量化寬松貨幣政策的進(jìn)一步實(shí)施，大量國際資本將在全球范圍內(nèi)流動，資本的這種頻繁的大規(guī)模的流入流出會給一國的金融穩(wěn)定帶來沖擊。金融穩(wěn)定關(guān)乎國家經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定及社會穩(wěn)定，十八大報(bào)告指出，我們要深化金融體制改革，完善金融監(jiān)管，推進(jìn)金融創(chuàng)新，維護(hù)金融穩(wěn)定，2013年2月28日國家外匯管理局公布的《2012年中國跨境資金流動監(jiān)測報(bào)告》中也罕見地警示了資本流出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，國際資本流動對金融穩(wěn)定影響的研究刻不容緩。 在當(dāng)前金融危機(jī)影響尚存的背景下，本文綜合運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析方法和分析工具，通過理論分析、案例分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，定性定量地分析國際資本流動對我國金融穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生的沖擊，并根據(jù)分析結(jié)果提出國際資本流動下維護(hù)我國金融穩(wěn)定的對策建議，以期能夠預(yù)防和減緩國際資本流動對我國金融穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響。 本文首先分別介紹了國際資本流動和金融穩(wěn)定的相關(guān)概念及理論，回顧了國際資本流動對金融穩(wěn)定影響的理論及傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，以1997年東南亞金融危機(jī)為案例分析了國際資本流動對金融穩(wěn)定的沖擊，為我國應(yīng)對國際資本流動沖擊提供借鑒。其次定性分析了我國國際資本流動現(xiàn)狀，，測算了2008年第一季度至2012年第三季度共19個季度的FDI和非FDI規(guī)模，從銀行微觀層面、金融市場層面和宏觀層面選取11個指標(biāo)構(gòu)建金融穩(wěn)定評價(jià)體系，通過主成分分析法合成金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)，定量描述當(dāng)前我國金融穩(wěn)定狀況。第三，通過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)分析和方差分解等方法對2008年第一季度至2012年第三季度共19個季度的FDI和非FDI對金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)的影響進(jìn)行了綜合實(shí)證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)在10%的顯著性水平下FDI與金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)之間有一個長期協(xié)整關(guān)系，金融穩(wěn)定是FDI的格蘭杰原因，方差分解第十期，F(xiàn)DI和非FDI對金融穩(wěn)定的方差貢獻(xiàn)率約占30%。第四，通過實(shí)證方法分析了FDI和非FDI對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、匯率水平和物價(jià)水平的影響，得出非FDI既是人民幣匯率、物價(jià)水平和資本市場波動的格蘭杰原因，又與其有著長期的協(xié)整關(guān)系，即國際資本流入推動了人民幣升值、國內(nèi)物價(jià)水平的上升和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動；通過案例分析了國際資本流動對房地產(chǎn)市場和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)尤其是我國制造業(yè)的影響，得出國際資本流出給我國制造業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來隱患。根據(jù)理論分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)論提出金融危機(jī)背景下應(yīng)對國際資本流動、維護(hù)我國金融穩(wěn)定的建議——穩(wěn)健有序的推動資本和金融賬戶的開放，完善人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制，加強(qiáng)金融體系建設(shè)和監(jiān)管制度建設(shè)，做好國際資本流動的監(jiān)管和預(yù)警工作勢在必行。
[Abstract]:Almost every ten years, the financial crisis has become the throes of modern economic and social development. The psychological shadow of Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 has not completely dissipated. The American subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, and eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, bringing serious economic losses to many countries. However, the causes of financial crises are not the same, but the emergence of recent crises is closely related to global financial liberalization and the free flow of international capital. Rong, the ultimate premeditated hedge fund attack triggered the financial crisis. The financial crisis started in 2007 has still affected the global economic development. After the outbreak of the crisis, a large number of international capital withdrawn to save their own economy, to a certain extent, to the emerging market economy countries have brought about the impact of China's present international capital. With the further implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, a large amount of international capital will flow around the world. This frequent large-scale inflow and outflow of capital will impact on a country's financial stability. And social stability, the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that we should deepen the reform of the financial system, improve financial supervision, promote financial innovation and maintain financial stability. The study of noise is urgent.
Under the background that the impact of the current financial crisis still exists, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability by using the analytical methods and tools of modern economics, through theoretical analysis, case analysis and empirical test, and proposes to maintain China's financial stability under international capital flows. Stable countermeasures and suggestions are expected to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability.
Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant concepts and theories of international capital flow and financial stability, reviews the theory and transmission mechanism of the impact of international capital flow on financial stability, and analyzes the impact of international capital flow on financial stability with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 as a case study to provide a loan for China to cope with the impact of international capital flow. Secondly, this paper qualitatively analyzes the current situation of China's international capital flows, estimates the scale of FDI and non-FDI in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and selects 11 indicators from the micro-level of banks, the financial market level and the macro-level to construct the financial stability evaluation system, and synthesizes the financial stability index through the principal component analysis. Thirdly, through the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper makes a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of FDI and non-FDI on financial stability index in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and finds that the impact is 10%. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between FDI and financial stability index under the significant level. Financial stability is the Granger cause of FDI. In the tenth phase of variance decomposition, the contribution rate of FDI and non-FDI to financial stability is about 30%. Fourthly, the impact of FDI and non-FDI on asset price, exchange rate level and price level is analyzed by empirical method. Non-FDI is not only the Granger cause of RMB exchange rate, price level and capital market fluctuation, but also has a long-term co-integration relationship with it, that is, international capital inflow promotes RMB appreciation, domestic price level and asset price fluctuation; this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flow on real estate market and macro-economy, especially through a case study. According to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the international capital flow and maintain China's financial stability under the background of the financial crisis - steadily and orderly promoting the opening of capital and financial accounts, and improving the RMB exchange rate. It is imperative to strengthen the construction of the financial system and the supervision system, and do a good job in the supervision and early warning of international capital flows.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832;F831.7
本文編號：2210018
[Abstract]:Almost every ten years, the financial crisis has become the throes of modern economic and social development. The psychological shadow of Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 has not completely dissipated. The American subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, and eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, bringing serious economic losses to many countries. However, the causes of financial crises are not the same, but the emergence of recent crises is closely related to global financial liberalization and the free flow of international capital. Rong, the ultimate premeditated hedge fund attack triggered the financial crisis. The financial crisis started in 2007 has still affected the global economic development. After the outbreak of the crisis, a large number of international capital withdrawn to save their own economy, to a certain extent, to the emerging market economy countries have brought about the impact of China's present international capital. With the further implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, a large amount of international capital will flow around the world. This frequent large-scale inflow and outflow of capital will impact on a country's financial stability. And social stability, the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that we should deepen the reform of the financial system, improve financial supervision, promote financial innovation and maintain financial stability. The study of noise is urgent.
Under the background that the impact of the current financial crisis still exists, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability by using the analytical methods and tools of modern economics, through theoretical analysis, case analysis and empirical test, and proposes to maintain China's financial stability under international capital flows. Stable countermeasures and suggestions are expected to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability.
Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant concepts and theories of international capital flow and financial stability, reviews the theory and transmission mechanism of the impact of international capital flow on financial stability, and analyzes the impact of international capital flow on financial stability with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 as a case study to provide a loan for China to cope with the impact of international capital flow. Secondly, this paper qualitatively analyzes the current situation of China's international capital flows, estimates the scale of FDI and non-FDI in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and selects 11 indicators from the micro-level of banks, the financial market level and the macro-level to construct the financial stability evaluation system, and synthesizes the financial stability index through the principal component analysis. Thirdly, through the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper makes a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of FDI and non-FDI on financial stability index in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and finds that the impact is 10%. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between FDI and financial stability index under the significant level. Financial stability is the Granger cause of FDI. In the tenth phase of variance decomposition, the contribution rate of FDI and non-FDI to financial stability is about 30%. Fourthly, the impact of FDI and non-FDI on asset price, exchange rate level and price level is analyzed by empirical method. Non-FDI is not only the Granger cause of RMB exchange rate, price level and capital market fluctuation, but also has a long-term co-integration relationship with it, that is, international capital inflow promotes RMB appreciation, domestic price level and asset price fluctuation; this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flow on real estate market and macro-economy, especially through a case study. According to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the international capital flow and maintain China's financial stability under the background of the financial crisis - steadily and orderly promoting the opening of capital and financial accounts, and improving the RMB exchange rate. It is imperative to strengthen the construction of the financial system and the supervision system, and do a good job in the supervision and early warning of international capital flows.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832;F831.7
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