發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-21 12:07

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng),受到多方面的影響。2010年以來(lái),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入第六輪市場(chǎng)調(diào)控,隨著房?jī)r(jià)不斷上漲,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控的力度不斷加大。2013年2月,國(guó)務(wù)院再次發(fā)布“新國(guó)五條”,針對(duì)住宅類房地產(chǎn)的市場(chǎng)調(diào)控再次升級(jí),房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越大,房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商在進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目投資前,深入分析評(píng)價(jià)各項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)情況,為成功決策提供理論支持越來(lái)越有必要。 本文首先以住宅類房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象,在總結(jié)梳理國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究相關(guān)成果的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)和所學(xué)知識(shí),采用分類型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別法從自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)更新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、社會(huì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和組織管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)七個(gè)方面識(shí)別出近三十種影響房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。在對(duì)當(dāng)前我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,總體回顧了自1993年以來(lái)的六輪房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控措施及效果,提出我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)的五個(gè)趨勢(shì),分析認(rèn)為,從未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)看,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、供求關(guān)系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、稅收政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商內(nèi)部戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正不斷加大。 其次,在對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行回顧分析的基礎(chǔ)上,基于模糊層次分析法,確定了房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系中各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素權(quán)重,建立了我國(guó)住宅類房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型,結(jié)合當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控力度不斷加大的背景,適當(dāng)加大政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重,使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型更加科學(xué)、合理。 最后,通過(guò)河北省廊坊市M房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目實(shí)際開(kāi)發(fā)情況,對(duì)構(gòu)建的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,證明了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型的合理性和可靠性,本論文研究成果對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)具有積極的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Real estate project risk is a complex system, affected by many aspects. Since 2010, China's real estate market has entered the sixth round of market regulation and control. The State Council has again issued the "five articles of the New Nation," and the market regulation and control of residential real estate has been upgraded once again. The risks of real estate projects are getting bigger and bigger. Before the real estate developers invest in the projects, they thoroughly analyze and evaluate the risk situation of various projects. It is increasingly necessary to provide theoretical support for successful decisions. Firstly, this paper takes residential real estate development projects as the research object, on the basis of summing up and combing the related achievements of risk evaluation research on real estate projects at home and abroad, combining the work experience and the knowledge learned, Adopting the method of identifying risk by type from natural risk, policy change risk, economic factor risk, technology renewal risk, project construction risk, Social risk and organization management risk identify nearly 30 kinds of risk that affect real estate project investment. On this basis, the risk evaluation index system of real estate development project is constructed. Based on the analysis of the current situation of real estate investment risk in China, this paper reviews the six rounds of real estate market regulation and control measures and their effects since 1993, and points out five trends in the development of real estate project risk in China. From the point of view of the future development trend, the macro economic risk, supply and demand risk, tax policy risk and internal strategic planning risk of real estate developers are increasing. Secondly, on the basis of reviewing and analyzing the risk evaluation methods, and based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper determines the weight of each risk element in the risk evaluation index system of real estate projects. This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of residential real estate development projects in China, combining with the background of the increasing regulation and control of the real estate market at present, appropriately increasing the weight of policy risks. Make the risk evaluation index system and risk comprehensive evaluation model more scientific and reasonable. Finally, through the actual development of M real estate project in Langfang City, Hebei Province, the risk evaluation index system and risk comprehensive evaluation model are analyzed empirically. This paper proves the rationality and reliability of the risk evaluation index system and the risk comprehensive evaluation model. The research results of this paper have positive reference significance for the risk evaluation of real estate development projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F224

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