【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的一部分,其發(fā)展能夠直接或間接地影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和關(guān)聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。健康發(fā)展的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),不僅對(duì)國(guó)家金融安全具有重要影響,也對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。健康的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),其發(fā)展應(yīng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展相協(xié)調(diào)、與其所處自然環(huán)境相協(xié)調(diào)、與其所在城市的整體發(fā)展水平相協(xié)調(diào),滿(mǎn)足人口增長(zhǎng)的需要等。本研究以評(píng)價(jià)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)秩序、資源配置效率和市場(chǎng)規(guī)模為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康指數(shù)模型。 本論文首先運(yùn)用比較分析法對(duì)全國(guó)以及31個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)秩序進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)性和自身的均衡程度上均有待提升,房地產(chǎn)投資占GDP的比重過(guò)大和商品房施工面積與商品房竣工面積之比過(guò)高,是導(dǎo)致我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)秩序狀況欠佳的主要原因。其次,運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析(DEA)法對(duì)全國(guó)以及31個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)。評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的資源配置效率有進(jìn)一步提升的空間,東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率優(yōu)于中、西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率,高于我國(guó)整體水平；西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率是最低的；投入過(guò)剩是造成我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率沒(méi)能達(dá)到最優(yōu)的主要原因。然后,運(yùn)用線性回歸分析法,選取房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的代理變量作為因變量,選取房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的重要影響因素作為自變量,以全國(guó)和31個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),擬合出各個(gè)地區(qū)的商品房理論銷(xiāo)售額,然后將商品房實(shí)際銷(xiāo)售額與理論銷(xiāo)售額進(jìn)行比較,計(jì)算出偏差程度,評(píng)價(jià)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的合理程度。評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的實(shí)際規(guī)模與合理規(guī)模之間的偏差較大,市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的合理程度有待提升,西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的合理度最低。未來(lái)能夠提供給房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)的土地面積逐漸減少是造成我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模合理程度偏低的主要原因。最后,在對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)秩序、資源配置效率和規(guī)模合理度進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,采用歐氏距離指標(biāo)法構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康指數(shù)模型,對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康狀況進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康狀況有待改善,東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)秩序狀況不佳；西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率低、市場(chǎng)規(guī)模不合理；市場(chǎng)規(guī)模合理度偏低是造成我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康狀況欠佳的主要原因。政府應(yīng)制定相應(yīng)政策,調(diào)整市場(chǎng)環(huán)境,控制房地產(chǎn)投資,加強(qiáng)對(duì)城市土地節(jié)約利用的管理,從而進(jìn)一步規(guī)范房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)秩序、提升房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)資源配置效率、優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模,推動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As a part of economic system, the development of real estate industry can directly or indirectly affect the development of national economy and related industries. The healthy development of the real estate market not only has an important impact on the national financial security, but also has an important significance for the sustainable development of the national economy. The development of healthy real estate market should be coordinated with the economic and social development, with the natural environment, with the overall development level of the city, and to meet the needs of population growth. Based on the evaluation of real estate market order, resource allocation efficiency and market scale, a real estate market health index model is constructed. This paper first uses the comparative analysis method to evaluate the real estate market order of the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. It is found that the coordination of the real estate market with the economic and social development and the degree of its own equilibrium need to be improved. The large proportion of real estate investment in GDP and the high ratio of the construction area of commercial housing to the completed area of commercial housing are the main reasons leading to the poor order of the real estate market in our country. Secondly, the data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method is used to evaluate the resource allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. The evaluation results show that there is room for further improvement in the resource allocation efficiency of the real estate market in our country. The allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the east is better than that in the middle, and the allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the west is higher than the whole level of our country. The allocation efficiency of real estate resources in the western region is the lowest, and the overinvestment is the main reason for the failure to achieve the optimal allocation efficiency in China's real estate market. Then, by using linear regression analysis, the agent variables of real estate market scale are selected as dependent variables, and the important influencing factors of real estate market scale are selected as independent variables, based on the data of the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. The theoretical sales of commercial housing in various regions are fitted, then the actual sales of commercial housing are compared with the theoretical sales, the deviation degree is calculated, and the reasonable degree of real estate market scale is evaluated. The evaluation results show that the deviation between the real and reasonable scale of the real estate market in China is large, the reasonable degree of the market scale needs to be improved, and the reasonable degree of the real estate market scale in the western region is the lowest. The decrease of the land area which can be provided to the real estate development in the future is the main reason for the low scale of the real estate market in our country. Finally, on the basis of evaluating and analyzing the order of real estate market, the efficiency of resource allocation and the reasonable degree of scale, the Euclidean distance index method is adopted to construct the real estate market health index model. To our country real estate market health condition carries on the comprehensive appraisal. The evaluation results show that the health status of real estate market in China needs to be improved, the order of real estate market in the eastern region is not good, the allocation efficiency of real estate market resources in the western region is low, and the market scale is unreasonable. The low rationality of market scale is the main reason for the poor health of China's real estate market. The government should make corresponding policies, adjust the market environment, control the real estate investment, strengthen the management of the saving and utilization of urban land, and further standardize the order of the real estate market and promote the efficiency of the real estate market resource allocation. Optimize the scale of the real estate market, promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23;F224

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