【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的一部分,其發(fā)展能夠直接或間接地影響國民經(jīng)濟和關聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。健康發(fā)展的房地產(chǎn)市場,不僅對國家金融安全具有重要影響,也對國民經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。健康的房地產(chǎn)市場,其發(fā)展應與經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展相協(xié)調、與其所處自然環(huán)境相協(xié)調、與其所在城市的整體發(fā)展水平相協(xié)調,滿足人口增長的需要等。本研究以評價房地產(chǎn)市場秩序、資源配置效率和市場規(guī)模為基礎,構建了房地產(chǎn)市場健康指數(shù)模型。 本論文首先運用比較分析法對全國以及31個省、市、自治區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場秩序進行了評價,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國房地產(chǎn)市場在與經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的協(xié)調性和自身的均衡程度上均有待提升,房地產(chǎn)投資占GDP的比重過大和商品房施工面積與商品房竣工面積之比過高,是導致我國房地產(chǎn)市場秩序狀況欠佳的主要原因。其次,運用數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析(DEA)法對全國以及31個省、市、自治區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率進行了評價。評價結果顯示,我國房地產(chǎn)市場的資源配置效率有進一步提升的空間,東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率優(yōu)于中、西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率,高于我國整體水平；西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率是最低的；投入過剩是造成我國房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率沒能達到最優(yōu)的主要原因。然后,運用線性回歸分析法,選取房地產(chǎn)市場規(guī)模的代理變量作為因變量,選取房地產(chǎn)市場規(guī)模的重要影響因素作為自變量,以全國和31個省、市、自治區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎,擬合出各個地區(qū)的商品房理論銷售額,然后將商品房實際銷售額與理論銷售額進行比較,計算出偏差程度,評價房地產(chǎn)市場規(guī)模的合理程度。評價結果顯示,我國房地產(chǎn)市場的實際規(guī)模與合理規(guī)模之間的偏差較大,市場規(guī)模的合理程度有待提升,西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場規(guī)模的合理度最低。未來能夠提供給房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的土地面積逐漸減少是造成我國房地產(chǎn)市場規(guī)模合理程度偏低的主要原因。最后,在對房地產(chǎn)市場秩序、資源配置效率和規(guī)模合理度進行了評價分析的基礎上,采用歐氏距離指標法構建房地產(chǎn)市場健康指數(shù)模型,對我國房地產(chǎn)市場健康狀況進行綜合評價。評價結果顯示,我國房地產(chǎn)市場健康狀況有待改善,東部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場秩序狀況不佳；西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率低、市場規(guī)模不合理；市場規(guī)模合理度偏低是造成我國房地產(chǎn)市場健康狀況欠佳的主要原因。政府應制定相應政策,調整市場環(huán)境,控制房地產(chǎn)投資,加強對城市土地節(jié)約利用的管理,從而進一步規(guī)范房地產(chǎn)市場秩序、提升房地產(chǎn)市場資源配置效率、優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)市場規(guī)模,推動房地產(chǎn)市場健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As a part of economic system, the development of real estate industry can directly or indirectly affect the development of national economy and related industries. The healthy development of the real estate market not only has an important impact on the national financial security, but also has an important significance for the sustainable development of the national economy. The development of healthy real estate market should be coordinated with the economic and social development, with the natural environment, with the overall development level of the city, and to meet the needs of population growth. Based on the evaluation of real estate market order, resource allocation efficiency and market scale, a real estate market health index model is constructed. This paper first uses the comparative analysis method to evaluate the real estate market order of the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. It is found that the coordination of the real estate market with the economic and social development and the degree of its own equilibrium need to be improved. The large proportion of real estate investment in GDP and the high ratio of the construction area of commercial housing to the completed area of commercial housing are the main reasons leading to the poor order of the real estate market in our country. Secondly, the data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method is used to evaluate the resource allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. The evaluation results show that there is room for further improvement in the resource allocation efficiency of the real estate market in our country. The allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the east is better than that in the middle, and the allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the west is higher than the whole level of our country. The allocation efficiency of real estate resources in the western region is the lowest, and the overinvestment is the main reason for the failure to achieve the optimal allocation efficiency in China's real estate market. Then, by using linear regression analysis, the agent variables of real estate market scale are selected as dependent variables, and the important influencing factors of real estate market scale are selected as independent variables, based on the data of the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. The theoretical sales of commercial housing in various regions are fitted, then the actual sales of commercial housing are compared with the theoretical sales, the deviation degree is calculated, and the reasonable degree of real estate market scale is evaluated. The evaluation results show that the deviation between the real and reasonable scale of the real estate market in China is large, the reasonable degree of the market scale needs to be improved, and the reasonable degree of the real estate market scale in the western region is the lowest. The decrease of the land area which can be provided to the real estate development in the future is the main reason for the low scale of the real estate market in our country. Finally, on the basis of evaluating and analyzing the order of real estate market, the efficiency of resource allocation and the reasonable degree of scale, the Euclidean distance index method is adopted to construct the real estate market health index model. To our country real estate market health condition carries on the comprehensive appraisal. The evaluation results show that the health status of real estate market in China needs to be improved, the order of real estate market in the eastern region is not good, the allocation efficiency of real estate market resources in the western region is low, and the market scale is unreasonable. The low rationality of market scale is the main reason for the poor health of China's real estate market. The government should make corresponding policies, adjust the market environment, control the real estate investment, strengthen the management of the saving and utilization of urban land, and further standardize the order of the real estate market and promote the efficiency of the real estate market resource allocation. Optimize the scale of the real estate market, promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
【學位授予單位】：沈陽建筑大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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