本文選題：流動性過剩 + 房地產(chǎn)市場��； 參考：《河北工業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本論文得到2011年國家社會科學基金項目(11BJL048)——“中美經(jīng)濟非對稱共生條件下我國流動性重復逆轉問題研究”的資助。 次貸危機作為世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展史上的一次標志性事件,不僅體現(xiàn)出當今各國空前緊密的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系,同時也衍生出許多前所未有的特異經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。在此背景下,我國的流動性過剩現(xiàn)象呈現(xiàn)出一些新特征。從2009年到2012年,我國流動性雖然一直處于過剩期,但是過剩程度卻并不相同,因此,文章以時間為分界線、以測量數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),將2009年到2012年四年間的流動性過剩情況劃分為流動性加速過剩期和流動性溫和過剩期。鑒于流動性過剩問題的重要性、不同程度的流動性過剩的危害性,對我國此四年間的流動性過剩情況進行概念劃分、根源探究、政策分析就顯得非常重要。 文章首先通過EM2指標、M2/GDP指標等對2009年-2012年間我國流動性的情況進行測算,結果表明：此四年間,我國流動性總體上呈現(xiàn)過剩局面,但是過剩程度卻并不相同。因此,文章將2009年-2010年定義為流動性加速過剩期；將2011年-2012年定義為溫和過剩期。在此基礎上,分別從國際、國內(nèi)兩個角度分別對每一時期做針對性原因分析。其中,國內(nèi)方面主要從外貿(mào)業(yè)、銀行業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)三大行業(yè)進行分析。在流動性加速過剩期,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)全面攀升對加速流動性的作用重大,因此,以房地產(chǎn)業(yè)為例進行博弈模型分析,進一步探究房地產(chǎn)攀升背后房價飆升的利益糾葛。同樣,在流動性溫和過剩期,以銀行業(yè)為例,通過構建模型分析互保鏈危機對我國信貸投放的影響作用。 在闡述了后危機時代我國流動性過剩呈現(xiàn)出的新表征,分析了這些新表征出現(xiàn)的根源后,研究此時期我國政府相應的金融調控政策,則能夠提高對這一問題的研究完整性,同時提升對這一問題的研究深度。因此,本文從存款準備金政策、利率政策、匯率政策以及房地產(chǎn)金融等角度分別研究各種政策對于緩解流動性過剩的效果如何。最后,根據(jù)各種政策的效果大小,為我國將來調控流動性過剩局面提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper is supported by the 2011 National Social Science Foundation (11BJL048), "the study on the repeated reversal of liquidity in China under the condition of asymmetric symbiosis between China and the United States". As a landmark event in the history of world economic development, the subprime mortgage crisis not only reflects the unprecedented close economic relations among countries, but also gives rise to many unprecedented special economic phenomena. In this context, the phenomenon of excess liquidity in China presents some new characteristics. From 2009 to 2012, China's liquidity has been in a period of excess, but the degree of excess is not the same. Therefore, the paper takes time as the dividing line and measures the data as the basis. The excess liquidity between 2009 and 2012 is divided into accelerated excess liquidity period and moderate excess liquidity period. In view of the importance of the problem of excess liquidity and the harmfulness of excess liquidity in different degrees, it is very important to classify the concept of excess liquidity in the past four years in China. This paper first measures the liquidity of China from 2009 to 2012 by EM2 / M2 / GDP. The results show that the liquidity in our country is overflowing in the past four years, but the degree of excess is not the same. Therefore, the article defines 2009-2010 as a period of accelerated excess liquidity, and 2011-2012 as a period of mild excess. On this basis, respectively from the international and domestic two angles to each period of targeted cause analysis. Among them, the domestic aspect mainly from the foreign trade industry, the banking industry, the real estate industry carries on the analysis. In the period of acceleration of excess liquidity, the real estate industry has a significant role in accelerating liquidity. Therefore, taking the real estate industry as an example, the game model analysis is carried out to further explore the interests of the soaring real estate prices behind the rise of real estate. Similarly, in the period of moderate liquidity surplus, taking the banking industry as an example, this paper analyzes the impact of the chain of mutual protection crisis on China's credit supply by constructing a model. After expounding the new characteristics of liquidity surplus in the post-crisis era and analyzing the origin of these new characterizations, the research on the corresponding financial regulation and control policies of our government in this period can improve the integrity of the research on this issue. At the same time, to improve the depth of research on this issue. Therefore, this paper studies the effects of various policies on relieving excess liquidity from the perspective of deposit reserve policy, interest rate policy, exchange rate policy and real estate finance. Finally, according to the effects of various policies, policy suggestions are provided for the future regulation of excess liquidity in China.
【學位授予單位】：河北工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.1

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本文編號：2094632