發(fā)布時間：2018-06-23 17:01

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn)泡沫 + 土地財政�。� 參考：《東華大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)作為實物資產(chǎn)處于涉及眾多行業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的終端,同時又是許多金融衍生品的基礎資產(chǎn),因此在國民經(jīng)濟中處于牽一發(fā)而動全身的地位。我國自1991年住房制度市場化改革以來,房地產(chǎn)價格經(jīng)歷了長時期的持續(xù)上漲。本文旨在剖析我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫的內(nèi)在機理及其影響,并相應地提出針對性的政策措施。 首先,本文測度了我國的房價。本文采用房地產(chǎn)投資額占GDP的比重、房價收入比、房價租金比三個指標,分別從供給、需求、投機三個角度測度了我國的房價,發(fā)現(xiàn)三個指標均達到了警戒線以上,說明我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)確實出現(xiàn)了“泡沫化”的現(xiàn)象。其次,本文測度了我國的房地產(chǎn)泡沫。泡沫分為投機泡沫和內(nèi)在泡沫。投機泡沫反映的是市場的非理性行為,是指由動量投資者追漲殺跌造成的；內(nèi)在泡沫反映的是市場的理性行為,是指價格圍繞外生基本面價值周期性波動的現(xiàn)象。本文利用省際面板數(shù)據(jù)分析了房地產(chǎn)價格的影響因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)基本面因素可以很好的解釋房地產(chǎn)價格,因此認為我國的房地產(chǎn)主要泡沫是內(nèi)在泡沫而非投機泡沫,換句話說,“炒房”更大程度上是房價貴的結果而非其原因。第三,本文深刻剖析了上述基本面因素的內(nèi)在機理,認為“土地財政”導致的供給不足,國民收入的兩極分化、銀行系統(tǒng)的金融支持過度、租買選擇機制的缺失是造成我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫的根本原因。第四,本文從經(jīng)濟和社會兩個維度分析了房地產(chǎn)泡沫化的影響,權衡了房地產(chǎn)泡沫的利弊。最后,本文提出了解決房地產(chǎn)泡沫的措施,認為原則上針對需求的政策應當堅持差別化、針對供給的政策應當從短期抑制逐步過渡到長期放松。
[Abstract]:Real estate, as a physical asset, is at the end of the industrial chain involving many industries, and at the same time, it is the basic asset of many financial derivatives, so it is in the position of pulling the hair and moving the whole body in the national economy. Since the market reform of housing system in 1991, the real estate price has been rising continuously for a long time. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the internal mechanism and influence of the real estate bubble in China, and to put forward corresponding policies and measures accordingly. First of all, this paper measures the housing prices in China. This paper uses the ratio of real estate investment to GDP, the ratio of house price to income, the ratio of house price to rent, measures the house price of our country from three angles of supply, demand and speculation, and finds that the three indexes have reached the warning level. It shows that the real estate industry in our country has really appeared the phenomenon of "froth". Secondly, this paper measures the real estate bubble in China. Bubbles are divided into speculative bubbles and internal bubbles. The speculative bubble reflects the irrational behavior of the market, which is caused by the momentum investors chasing up and killing the fall; the intrinsic bubble reflects the rational behavior of the market and refers to the cyclical fluctuation of the price around the exogenous fundamental value. This paper analyzes the influence factors of real estate price by using inter-provincial panel data, and finds that the fundamental factors can explain the real estate price very well. Therefore, we think that the main bubble of real estate in China is internal bubble, not speculative bubble, in other words, Property speculation is more the result of high house prices than the reason. Thirdly, this paper deeply analyzes the internal mechanism of the above fundamental factors, and holds that "land finance" leads to insufficient supply, polarization of national income, excessive financial support from the banking system. The lack of rent-buying mechanism is the root cause of real estate bubble in China. Fourth, this paper analyzes the impact of real estate bubble from the two dimensions of economy and society, weighing the advantages and disadvantages of real estate bubble. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to solve the real estate bubble, and holds that the policy of demand should be differentiated in principle, and the policy of supply should be gradually transferred from short-term restraint to long-term relaxation.
【學位授予單位】：東華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：2057784