本文選題：人民幣升值 + 原因　； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：如今伴隨我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和增長速度也不在調(diào)整和優(yōu)化,其中人民幣匯率改革成為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個重要的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)。在2005年,我國央行宣布建立以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)的人民幣匯率機(jī)制,所形成的機(jī)制要求能夠具有管理浮動匯率的制度,具有獨(dú)立性,不依賴于美元,并具有一定彈性。影響我國人民幣升值的因素有很多,本文從名義匯率與實(shí)際匯率的差別,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)中出現(xiàn)的巨大的貿(mào)易順差,我國和美國的通貨膨脹率之間的差異,美元的疲軟以及人民幣升值預(yù)期的加強(qiáng)以及國際熱錢的大量涌入這四個方面來解析人民幣升值的原因。自從實(shí)行人民幣匯率改革之后,我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了很多現(xiàn)象,既有正面的也有負(fù)面的,包括對我國外貿(mào)易的大額順差,外匯儲備增加,以及某些行業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)落后,管理效率差,產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量和經(jīng)濟(jì)附加值都很低和資源過多的消耗和浪費(fèi)增加這些現(xiàn)象�？偟膩砜慈嗣駧诺纳凳且话央p刃劍,我們既要利用正面效應(yīng)帶給我們的契機(jī),包括對外匯適當(dāng)?shù)耐顿Y,增加資本的投入等。也要充分利用負(fù)面效應(yīng)帶給我們的進(jìn)一步提升和改善的機(jī)遇,包括優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),對產(chǎn)品的升級改造,加快行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的步伐等內(nèi)容。同時,我們還要善于借鑒日本和的過著兩個國家應(yīng)對貨幣升值的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn),日本和德國對于貨幣升值的問題與目前我國的貨幣升值問題具有非常大的相似性,盡管當(dāng)時兩國同樣面臨國內(nèi)貨幣的升值壓力,然而兩國對于同一局面采取了不同的匯率政策,最終產(chǎn)生了截然相反的改革效果。所以,這兩國對于貨幣升值的匯率改革措施對于我國目前的狀況具有非常好的研究價值,對于我國的人民幣升值所采取的措施具有非常好的借鑒價值和預(yù)警價值。第一,匯率升值是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的大勢很難避免。任何國家處在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的這一過程,必須看清過熱的經(jīng)濟(jì)對于匯率升值的壓力影響,對于國家的匯率要根據(jù)升值趨勢適當(dāng)?shù)倪M(jìn)行調(diào)整。而匯率的調(diào)正也是一個漸進(jìn)的過程,必須與經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面的調(diào)整相適應(yīng)。因?yàn)檫@樣的調(diào)整,更有利本國物價的穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,有利于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)資源在貿(mào)易品與非貿(mào)易品國家部門之間進(jìn)行重新配置。第二,在動蕩不穩(wěn)定的匯率水平面前,這個時候國家就更加必須保持本國貨幣政策的自主和獨(dú)立。第三,引導(dǎo)資金正確流向,關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價格波動。經(jīng)濟(jì)的過快發(fā)展,貨幣升值勢必導(dǎo)致本國過剩的資本,而這些資本必須進(jìn)行正確的引導(dǎo),否則會引發(fā)資本流入股市、房地產(chǎn)等虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì),導(dǎo)致泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)。隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間越來越親密,一體化的趨勢越來越明顯,而匯率對于全球資源的分配起著重要的作用。我國作為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分,我國的匯率改革對于全球和亞洲的的各國都具有深遠(yuǎn)影響。針對對國內(nèi)外要求人民幣升值的呼聲,我國政府在保持匯率平穩(wěn)的同時,還需要通過積極的措施來應(yīng)對人民幣升值所帶來的影響,緩解因?yàn)橥鈪R儲備不斷增加帶來的壓力。我們首先要對人民幣的升值采取小幅漸進(jìn)的模式,避免大幅度升值帶來的沖擊；其次要優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和對出口企業(yè)的保護(hù),比如加大出口退稅制度,給更多的企業(yè)留出調(diào)整和升級的時間來應(yīng)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型；再者要加快我國外匯市場的建設(shè)速度,完善外匯市場的機(jī)制,豐富外匯的品種,對國際資本的流入加大監(jiān)管力度,鼓勵企業(yè)對外投資并進(jìn)行宏觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控,著眼于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度,以此作為出發(fā)點(diǎn),采取措施來應(yīng)對人民幣升值帶來的不利影響。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the economic structure and growth rate are not adjusted and optimized. The RMB exchange rate reform has become an important focus of attention in the economic development of our country. In 2005, the Central Bank of China announced the establishment of a RMB exchange rate mechanism based on market supply and demand, and the mechanism required to be able to have the management of the RMB exchange rate. The system of floating exchange rate is independent, independent of US dollars and has a certain flexibility. There are many factors affecting the appreciation of RMB in our country. The difference between nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate, the huge trade surplus in our economy, the difference of inflation rate between China and the United States, the weakness of the dollar and the RMB After the reform of the RMB exchange rate, there have been many phenomena in China's economy, both positive and negative, including the large amount of trade in foreign countries, the increase of foreign exchange reserves, and the industry of some industries. The backward structure, poor management efficiency, low technical content and economic added value and excessive consumption and waste of resources increase these phenomena. In general, the appreciation of the RMB is a double-edged sword. We should take advantage of the opportunity of the positive effect, including the appropriate investment in foreign exchange, the increase of capital investment and so on. We should use the negative effects to improve and improve our opportunities, including optimizing the industrial structure, upgrading the products, and speeding up the pace of the industry transformation. At the same time, we should also be good at learning from the experience and lessons of the two countries in Japan to respond to the currency appreciation and the problems of currency appreciation in Japan and Germany. At the present time, China's currency appreciation is very similar. Although the two countries are facing the same pressure of appreciation of domestic currency at that time, the two countries adopted different exchange rate policies on the same situation, which eventually resulted in the opposite reform effect. Therefore, the exchange rate reform measures for the currency appreciation of the two countries are present to our country. The situation has very good research value. The measures taken for the appreciation of RMB in China have very good reference value and early warning value. First, the appreciation of the exchange rate is difficult to avoid in the development of economy. The exchange rate in the country should be adjusted appropriately according to the trend of appreciation. The adjustment of the exchange rate is also a gradual process, which must be adapted to the adjustment of the economic fundamentals, because this adjustment makes the price stability of the country more stable and the steady development of the economy, and is beneficial to the domestic economic resources between the trade goods and the non trade goods state departments. Second, in the face of the unstable exchange rate, the country must be more independent and independent of its monetary policy at this time. Third, guide the correct flow of capital, pay attention to the fluctuation of asset prices. The rapid development of the economy, the currency appreciation will lead to the surplus capital of the country, and the capital must be made positive. True guidance, otherwise, it will lead to capital inflow into the stock market, real estate and other virtual economies, leading to the bubble economy. With the growing intimacy between the world economy, the trend of integration is becoming more and more obvious, and the exchange rate plays an important role in the distribution of global resources. As an important part of the world economy, China's exchange rate reform is an important part of our country. All countries in the world and Asia have far-reaching impact. In view of the call for the appreciation of RMB at home and abroad, our government needs to take positive measures to cope with the impact of RMB appreciation while keeping the exchange rate stable, so as to alleviate the pressure on the increase of foreign exchange reserves. It takes a small and gradual model to avoid the impact of a large appreciation. Secondly, we should optimize the industrial structure and protect the export enterprises, such as increasing the export tax rebate system, leaving more enterprises to adjust and upgrading the time to cope with the transformation of the industrial structure; moreover, the speed of building the foreign exchange market in China should be accelerated and the foreign exchange should be perfected. The mechanism of the market is to enrich the variety of foreign exchange, strengthen the supervision of the inflow of international capital, encourage enterprises to invest in the foreign countries and carry out macroeconomic regulation and control, with a view to the macroeconomic perspective, and take measures to cope with the adverse effects of the appreciation of the RMB.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F124

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