本文選題：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟 + 山東省��； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費、出口以及投資是推動經(jīng)濟持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的重要因素,但是2008年在全世界范圍內(nèi)爆發(fā)了金融危機,我國的經(jīng)濟也呈現(xiàn)出持續(xù)低迷的狀態(tài),社會消費普遍降低,同時受到全球經(jīng)濟大環(huán)境的影響,消費以及出口對于經(jīng)濟的拉動作用受到一定程度的阻礙�；诖�,在過去的一段時間里,我國主要利用投資手段刺激經(jīng)濟的進一步發(fā)展。與此同時,鑒于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)一方面能夠吸引企業(yè)進行投資,另一方面能夠推進城市化建設(shè)進程,因而我國選擇房地產(chǎn)投資來為經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供動力。伴隨著時間的推移,越來越多的社會資本開始重視并進入房地產(chǎn)市場,使得原本就火爆的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在各個行業(yè)中占據(jù)優(yōu)勢。雖然房地產(chǎn)投資的飛速發(fā)展刺激了GDP的增長,推動了城市化進程,但是我們也不能忽視其引發(fā)的負面影響,例如,房價持續(xù)走高,政府無法償還債務(wù),經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)不健全等。從某種程度上說,房地產(chǎn)市場能夠?qū)暧^經(jīng)濟的未來發(fā)展方向產(chǎn)生影響,關(guān)乎著廣大人民群眾的切實利益�；诖�,相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的專家學(xué)者必須重視對房地產(chǎn)投資與經(jīng)濟增長之間關(guān)系的分析研究,以便為我國經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供強有力的理論支撐。本文在撰寫的過程中首先對山東經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及房地產(chǎn)投資的相關(guān)情況進行了詳細介紹,然后選取1990年到2015年間山東省房地產(chǎn)投資的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對象,然后通過使用協(xié)整檢驗等多種計量方法展開實證分析工作。相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果表明,房地產(chǎn)投資確實能夠推動經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)、穩(wěn)定增長,并且從長遠情況來看,二者之間的關(guān)系也較為牢固。在近期之內(nèi),房地產(chǎn)投資提高1%的同時,經(jīng)濟也會產(chǎn)生0.11902%的增長;放眼于未來,房地產(chǎn)投資提高1%的同時,經(jīng)濟會產(chǎn)生0.59%的增長。由此我們得出,隨著時間的推移,房地產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟增長的推動作用越來越明顯。但是就目前而言,雖然山東省的房地產(chǎn)投資在一定程度上仍然能夠推動經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,但是我們能夠明顯感受到這種推動力的后勁不足,未能為經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展提供源源不斷的動力。除此之外,上述經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)所具有的自我調(diào)節(jié)能力較為突出,能夠進行自主的管理與控制,假設(shè)經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)了短時間的波動,經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)會通過收斂機制,不斷降低由波動造成的影響,將其維持在均衡狀態(tài)�；诖朔N情況,本文在分析、研究山東省房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一系列行之有效的建議與方法。
[Abstract]:Consumption, export and investment are important factors to promote the sustained and stable development of the economy. However, the financial crisis broke out in the world in 2008, and the economy of our country has also shown a sustained downturn, and social consumption has generally decreased. At the same time, under the influence of the global economic environment, consumption and export are hindered to some extent. Based on this, in the past period of time, our country mainly uses investment means to stimulate the further development of the economy. At the same time, in view of the real estate industry can attract enterprises to invest on the one hand, on the other hand, can promote the urbanization construction process, so our country chooses the real estate investment to provide the motive force for the sustainable development of the economy. With the passage of time, more and more social capital begin to pay attention to and enter the real estate market. Although the rapid development of real estate investment stimulates the growth of GDP and promotes the process of urbanization, we can not ignore the negative effects caused by it, such as the rising house prices, the inability of the government to repay debts, the imperfect economic structure and so on. To a certain extent, the real estate market can influence the future development direction of the macro economy, which is related to the real interests of the broad masses of the people. Based on this, experts and scholars in related fields must attach importance to the analysis and study of the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth, in order to provide a strong theoretical support for the sustained and stable development of China's economy. In the course of writing, this paper firstly introduces the current situation of Shandong's economy and the related situation of real estate investment, and then selects the relevant statistical data of Shandong's real estate investment from 1990 to 2015 as the research object. Then through the use of cointegration test and other measurement methods to carry out empirical analysis. The results show that real estate investment can indeed drive sustained and stable growth, and in the long run, the relationship between the two is relatively strong. In the near term, real estate investment will rise by 1 percent, while the economy will also generate 0.11902 percent growth; in the future, real estate investment will increase by 1 percent, while the economy will generate 0.59 percent growth. From this we draw, with the passage of time, real estate investment to promote economic growth more and more obvious. But at present, although the real estate investment in Shandong Province can still promote the economic development to a certain extent, we can obviously feel that this kind of driving force is not enough, and can not provide a continuous driving force for the economic development. In addition, the self-regulating ability of the above-mentioned economic system is more prominent, and it can be managed and controlled autonomously. If the economy fluctuates for a short period of time, the economic system will pass the convergence mechanism. Continuously reduce the impact caused by fluctuations and maintain them in equilibrium. Based on this situation, this paper puts forward a series of effective suggestions and methods on the basis of analyzing and studying the present situation of the real estate industry in Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F127

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